WinterWxLuvr

Do you understand the role that mountains play? Being to the east of the the Allegany front is a killer for us. Especially with light snow and snow shower activity. Your Albany example isn’t a good one either. You’re talking about a place that is nearly 4 degrees latitude north of DC. If you went that far south you’d be somewhere between Charlotte NC and Columbia SC. Do you think East or west would matter in a snow comparison with them? And to further illustrate just how bad the Albany example is, Albany is 3.25 degrees longitude east of DC. At this latitude that’s roughly 180 miles. Hmmmm, so much for the Albany isn’t too far west idea.

Will end up 582

That’s like hoping to see a dinosaur lol.

I’ll second the post from above and say, with 100% certainty that there’s no way this winter will be as bad as last year. The WDI will Trump any other acronyms this go around. The winter doesn’t exactly have to do much to top that fiasco.

I think analog forecasting isn’t all that great. Sure it will work most of the time just like predicting median snowfall will have you looking decent in the end. But I’d venture to say that there’s been more than enough winters that would have gone strongly against whatever analogs that would have been used to predict them. What would the analogs have said heading into 95-96? 14-15? 15-16? Some winters are just simply gonna bust the analogs. Some good. Some bad. And winter can be so tricky with luck and timing. I have no idea what the general patterns and stats look like in retrospect for the winter of 18-19 but the lasting impression of that winter is that it was pretty good. We had enough snow and enough cold that it felt like we had had a winter. And perception is reality regardless of what any final numbers may say.

I’ll say this much for that post ... it’s an absolute fact that we don’t see clippers of late. That’s puzzled me for a while. I’ve even made mention of that myself.

Perhaps the AO summer correlation is as dependable as the SAI is.

Is the GFS gonna be upgraded? If so, when? I hope so because if last winter is an indication it can’t be trusted.

12-13 and 13-14 were cold neutrals or weak Ninas. Not sure if the Nina threshold. Regardless, there are other factors. Last year was almost a carbon copy of the 2014-2015 Enso conditions. Just a little bit different though in the outcome.

Not so sure it is lol

LOL, i was thinking M is A F I for some reason

LOL, I’m afraid to ask

We will figure it all out once we’ve created 30-40 more 3 letter acronyms for weather.

Good stuff

Here I am trying to push people off the ledge and you’re trying to rescue them

It's been a bad few years for Friv.

LOL, if humans were actually as smart as we think they are. Keep dreaming.

That would likely be the death of us all.

Does this mean 2017 is less than 2016 by 330k or vice versa?

Unless I'm just not reading that right, it sure looks as if the concentration level is much higher across the board with the exception of Hudson Bay.

Oh boy

Can anyone give me the link that will take me where this link used to take me? It leads to Twitter now. https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop.ver1/vishop-extent.html

Put our time, effort, energy, and money in making adjustments to the climate. Status quo is a no go.

The whole idea speaks to the arrogance of humans. Weve pretty much always been guided by the notion that we can mold the earth into what we want it to be instead of adapting and living in harmony with it. You could argue that it's that very notion that got us to this point in the first place.