WinterWxLuvr

Posting “radio show” should draw an immediate ban.

New GFS is a big storm and a hit, but isn't out far enough to convince me it doesn't cut west of us.

The troubling part of the second threat on the gfs, for me, is that the storm seems to be disappearing from some of the ens members. I liked that it was pretty much on all of them a couple of days ago.

This is the time though that I think at least in the past where models can sometimes kind of lose a storm for a day or two.

I can’t wait for DT to be wrong 

9 minutes ago, Scud said:

If it can move that much in one run, it can move again. On to happy hour...

Euro must be a terrible model if we use Ji's logic.  

Just now, Ji said:

terrible model lol....in one run when from a Midwest Monster to a southern slider smh

LOL, the euro went from a cutter into the lakes to a storm sliding under us in one run two days ago.

Just now, Bob Chill said:

GFS is going that way too. I'd much prefer that in the long range versus worrying about a cut to the west or phased rainer. We're still in shotgun spread mode so I'm not overthinking anything. The 10k foot view is a pure southern stream shortwave is going to traverse the country into the deep south. That's on all guidance. Where it goes from there won't be known for probably 5 days

Amen.  I really like where we stand with this right now.

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Only thing I'll take from the gem is that it finally sees the threat at least. 

Yes.  When something is showing up consistently on all the models it's easy to believe it's going to happen.  Now we need the finer details to go our way.

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro has basically nothing for the 5th, but a pretty good look at D10.

I'll say.  Much improved from 24 hours ago.

I'd think at this range the last thing we want to do is wish the gfs storm north.

I'm willing to bet that suppression will not be the worry.

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yup. It was awful in earlier runs. Moving off the coast.   It’s +240 and somebody’s dog died, but this one might be something to track.  So an exception can be made. 

This one is screaming "watch me" IMO.

Just now, stormtracker said:

I dunno.  Day 10 on the Euro looks like a fat Lakes Cutter.   Hopefully the Ensembles are vastly different.  

That’s how it looks to me.  I’m just looking for the existence of a storm then. Also the euro can sometimes blow those up into cutters but reality ends up different.

Euro (from what I can see) has the storm at day 10, but looks much warmer than the GFS and looks like a cutter.  Anybody with access want to back that up?

The storm (possible) around the day 10-12 time frame certainly looks to be worth watching.  It's showing up in some form all over the gfs ensembles.

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Was just looking at GEFS. Certainly not a slam dunk Chicago cutter like I expected. Cluster of weaker solutions that go south of us it looks like. Way out there, but good support for something around the 9th also, but looks suppressed. 

Certainly going to be cold from the 5th through the 12th or so. 

AO is also solidly negative for the first 11 days of the month. 

Isn't that the AO predictor that Bob is always talking about?

That's the storm (12z gfs) I was referring to earlier. Question now is will the flow allow it to come north and is it all over the ensembles like it was at 6z.

Be interesting to see if that storm showing up to our south on the GFS ensemble members stays around for a few model runs.  It's there on a bunch of them, most of which slide it off the coast below us .... for now.

Been my experience that ensembles tend to have a very flat, zonal flow to them most of the time when you go way out in time.  And 16 days is WAY out in time.

A QB that can run causes fits for a defense. Doesn’t matter if it’s high school, college, nfl. Look at what Trubisky’s running ability is doing for Chicago’s offense 

It’s over

Epic winter coming

These fools are enough to make somebody kick a puppy. 

The whole month has been below normal, we’ve had a significant winter storm already, it’s Nov 25, and people are flipping out because we got one warm day. 

SSDY

In reference to a post above, it doesn’t matter if a storm cuts (as long as it cuts east of Cincinnati) if there’s enough cold air. Good winter storms don’t have to be coastals.

27 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I see the blocking pattern as transitory. December should be warmer. 

I need to make a log of your posts.  One day the pattern looks blocky, the cold consistent, the storms are icy.  The next day its transitory, warmer, rainier.

Gives me a damn headache.

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Can we not call it an arctic “kiss”?

And can we not say "likely" for something 12+ days out.  

Started the new thread guys as the discussion is now starting to move into December