WinterWxLuvr

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You need to move dude, I would guess Thurmont, Harpers Ferry or Cascade.  Those are jackpots for all forms of weather.

Just a little information..... From a local weather station 2 miles east of Stephens City... If it didn’t rain another drop before January, the station would still finish the year 4” above normal.

I hope it doesn’t rain until September.

Guys this is my one yearly post in the severe thread 

I have a question.  May seems to be the month where hail is most common.  Why would that be true?  Thanks

It's been a bad few years for Friv.

3 hours ago, Jonger said:

No it wouldn't.

LOL, if humans were actually as smart as we think they are.

Keep dreaming.

3 hours ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said:

 

It's called bio-engineering to the rescue.

That would likely be the death of us all.

6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

With a couple days left before the June 30th prediction point, here's where we stand on area:

 

2016: -330k

2015: +30k

2014: +110k

2013: +280k

2012: -700k

2011: -320k

2010: -650k

2009: +640k

2008: +130k

2007: -160k

 

 

Does this mean 2017 is less than 2016 by 330k or vice versa?

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro ensembles want to establish a pretty good dipole pattern for the next 4-7 days...it would keep warm air flowing into the Pacific side of the arctic. That has been the warmest region so far this month...the Eurasian/Atlantic side has been in the deep freeze. But the thinnest ice is from Beaufort to Chukchi and that's where the warmth has been so we'll have to see if that ends up jump-starting things soon.  

 

We have some catching up to do in the Beaufort....you can also see how slow the Atlantic sector is this year with the cold spring.

 

 

Unless I'm just not reading that right, it sure looks as if the concentration level is much higher across the board with the exception of Hudson Bay.

13 hours ago, mattie g said:

Oh boy

Can anyone give me the link that will take me where this link used to take me?  It leads to Twitter now.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop.ver1/vishop-extent.html

Put our time, effort, energy, and money in making adjustments to the climate.

Status quo is a no go.

22 minutes ago, Sundog said:

But can't we just "switch it off" so to speak if we see adverse effects?

The whole idea speaks to the arrogance of humans. 

Weve pretty much always been guided by the notion that we can mold the earth into what we want it to be instead of adapting and living in harmony with it.  You could argue that it's that very notion that got us to this point in the first place.

1 hour ago, Jonger said:

Looks bad.... 

My 4+ prediction, should bust.

Amazing how little we hear about geoengineering or sequestration. I have to wait years for anything interesting to come across the news. I bet it could all melt out tomorrow and not another nickel would go into either of these ventures.

Geoengineering is an idea that's dangerous as hell IMO.

The climate status quo is a fairy tale.

1 hour ago, The_Global_Warmer said:

Lots of clearing on modis.  The ice is wrecked so bad.

 

That low concentration ice is the real deal.  

 

Been a tough summer for you, huh?

18 minutes ago, frontranger8 said:

I don't understand that. It's been proven repeatedly that there is little predictability until late spring at the earliest.

It's called wishful thinking.

Current three winter stretch is the snowiest on record for Dulles, VA (since 1963) at 122.7". Number two is 65-66 thru 67-68 with 105.5".

Does IAD keep stats on number of days with at least 1" snowfall?  I know I've seen that data for some airports at some time in the past.

Gotcha-- so extending outside of the Mid-Atlantic region (the poll's wording) too.

1/96 definitely had a bigger impact further SW through all of VA. And this storm had the 30" line further east in the metro regions. For due-west of the metro regions (so Frederick County, MD, Loudoun County, VA, and Frederick County, VA/Winchester), 1/16 looks to be a bit more.

We could go county-by-county and have different answers to the poll.

Best storm and total snowfall don't necessarily equate.

County wide range from 16-22 " . I personally had 20 inches west of you off stone rd. Yea..sleet mixed in some. Catoctins just west stayed all snow (25-30 ish there) but as you know the winds and EPIC drifting was the story (to the top of roofs- 10 feet) . I've already conceded it's a one in a lifetime blizzard.

It was a lifetime storm. I never expect to see anything remotely close to it.

For DC/BAlt and extended suburbs and exurbs, it is a no brainer call - January 2016. For my backyard it is a little tougher. I need to marinate on it more. For some reason the 6 hour lull was more painful than the 96/03 flip, even though it snowed the entire time and I picked up 1-2" during it. I also got paid back handsomely as the 2pm - 6pm period was epic, and I really got hit flush, and picked up 5-6" additional inches. I have video from 3pm Saturday that is as good as anything from any of the other big storms. I didn't think I would lull for so long, but in the end it all worked out and I nailed my forecast. I think ultimately I will lean toward January 2016. I got close to as much snow as 96/10 and more snow than 09/03, and I was in a downtown location which was really cool in terms of experiencing the impact. Every storm except 2009 had its drawbacks and I got more snow than 09.

Was it 5" or 6"? There was beer riding on that...

Get Ian in here. This thread is a great idea.

Over here in North America, AGW should continue but there will be SLR issues. Europe will need to worry about abrupt seasonal damages especially in agriculture. It's not that extreme when you look at the big picture.

The paper above seemingly fails to account for what a AMOC collapse at the current/future GHG forcing does to equatorial temperatures. It's a truely nutty situation that we should have avoided at all costs (which is unlikely at this point baring some massive geo-engineering), or you can look forward to some serious unraveling and environmental incompatibility with our current coastal communities and economic shipping routes.

The most important realization is that there should be doubts over the AMOC completely shutting down from 1.0C of GMT warming. This is why I am so skeptical of large NH cooling. We could perhaps see a fast taper down that mirrors GMT increase and ice discharge, something more linear but abrupt on geological timescales regardless.

Whatever scenario occurs, we should expect extreme storminess and unstable seasons.

And 90% extinction, right?

I don't take lectures from an incompetent moderator.

You should be able to figure it out ORH.

Here's a thought. Post your credentials and we can compare them to ORH. Then we can get a better handle on who the incompetent one is.

WeatherBoy007 keeps putting marks on the wall and ORH keeps painting the wall. Fun to watch the slapdowns.

I think 2013/2014 convinced everyone that geoengineering was not necessary.

Geoengineering would probably be the quickest route to your 90% extinction.

We ain't as smart as we sometimes think we are.