WinterWxLuvr

Can anyone give me the link that will take me where this link used to take me?  It leads to Twitter now.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop.ver1/vishop-extent.html

Put our time, effort, energy, and money in making adjustments to the climate.

Status quo is a no go.

22 minutes ago, Sundog said:

But can't we just "switch it off" so to speak if we see adverse effects?

The whole idea speaks to the arrogance of humans. 

Weve pretty much always been guided by the notion that we can mold the earth into what we want it to be instead of adapting and living in harmony with it.  You could argue that it's that very notion that got us to this point in the first place.

1 hour ago, Jonger said:

Looks bad.... 

My 4+ prediction, should bust.

Amazing how little we hear about geoengineering or sequestration. I have to wait years for anything interesting to come across the news. I bet it could all melt out tomorrow and not another nickel would go into either of these ventures.

Geoengineering is an idea that's dangerous as hell IMO.

The climate status quo is a fairy tale.

1 hour ago, The_Global_Warmer said:

Lots of clearing on modis.  The ice is wrecked so bad.

 

That low concentration ice is the real deal.  

 

Been a tough summer for you, huh?

18 minutes ago, frontranger8 said:

I don't understand that. It's been proven repeatedly that there is little predictability until late spring at the earliest.

It's called wishful thinking.

Current three winter stretch is the snowiest on record for Dulles, VA (since 1963) at 122.7". Number two is 65-66 thru 67-68 with 105.5".

Does IAD keep stats on number of days with at least 1" snowfall?  I know I've seen that data for some airports at some time in the past.

Gotcha-- so extending outside of the Mid-Atlantic region (the poll's wording) too.

1/96 definitely had a bigger impact further SW through all of VA. And this storm had the 30" line further east in the metro regions. For due-west of the metro regions (so Frederick County, MD, Loudoun County, VA, and Frederick County, VA/Winchester), 1/16 looks to be a bit more.

We could go county-by-county and have different answers to the poll.

Best storm and total snowfall don't necessarily equate.

County wide range from 16-22 " . I personally had 20 inches west of you off stone rd. Yea..sleet mixed in some. Catoctins just west stayed all snow (25-30 ish there) but as you know the winds and EPIC drifting was the story (to the top of roofs- 10 feet) . I've already conceded it's a one in a lifetime blizzard.

It was a lifetime storm. I never expect to see anything remotely close to it.

For DC/BAlt and extended suburbs and exurbs, it is a no brainer call - January 2016. For my backyard it is a little tougher. I need to marinate on it more. For some reason the 6 hour lull was more painful than the 96/03 flip, even though it snowed the entire time and I picked up 1-2" during it. I also got paid back handsomely as the 2pm - 6pm period was epic, and I really got hit flush, and picked up 5-6" additional inches. I have video from 3pm Saturday that is as good as anything from any of the other big storms. I didn't think I would lull for so long, but in the end it all worked out and I nailed my forecast. I think ultimately I will lean toward January 2016. I got close to as much snow as 96/10 and more snow than 09/03, and I was in a downtown location which was really cool in terms of experiencing the impact. Every storm except 2009 had its drawbacks and I got more snow than 09.

Was it 5" or 6"? There was beer riding on that...

Get Ian in here. This thread is a great idea.

Yes

I triple dog dare you.

Bump

I wish somebody would delete this thread

Superstorm..........no doubt.

This thread should be locked forever.

Agree on your three biggest. 96, 03, 93, 79 and 10 are the best in that order for me. 96 and 03 both dropped 3 feet in my area.

What did the Superstorm drop in Winchester?

In SWVA it put down anywhere from 25-42 inches.  That storm is the most incredible weather event I've ever witnessed.  If you go back and read about it, the stats, the records, you just can't get over how powerful it was (2 degrees in Birmingham!!, 4 inches of snow in the Fla panhandle!!  On March 13!!)

Having read the back and forth in this thread, I think it's time for all parties to switch to decaf. Vergent, thank you for posting the link to the article. It is interesting and alarming - but it's just a news article. It's not peer-reviewed science . . . heck, it's not even non-peer-reviewed science. It is a news article which was written to grab the readers' attention. And I confess it did so.

I hope all parties can agree that before anybody can assess how significant and serious this methane release is we need real data. We don't know the extent of the venting, the amount of methane being released, or (worst case) whether this is an indication that the massive arctic methane deposits are becoming unstable. Hopefully the Russian researhers will publish their results soon. Until then it is largely pointless to speculate. Methane leaks are not new - you can search youtube and find lots of alarming videos. Here's the url to a video of

in the summer of 2007. If the newly discovered vents are reaching the surface I expect they look like a larger version of these vents. And here's a video on 'The Door to Hell', a methane leak that's been burning for over thirty years.

For those skeptical and denialist posters who keep singing "Don't worry, be happy!" - you might want to do some reading on Extinction Events and how methane releases have been implicated in several of them. Wikipedia has a good article on the Clathrate Gun Hypothesis which provides link for further reading. Here's an excerpt from that article:

One exception, however, may be in clathrates associated with the

Arctic ocean

, where clathrates can exist in shallower water stabilized by lower temperatures rather than higher pressures; these may potentially be marginally stable much closer to the surface of the sea-bed, stabilized by a frozen 'lid' of

permafrost

preventing methane escape. Recent research carried out in 2008 in the Siberian Arctic has shown millions of tons of methane being released, apparently through perforations in the seabed permafrost,

^[11]

with concentrations in some regions reaching up to 100 times normal.

^[12]

^[13]

The excess methane has been detected in localized hotspots in the outfall of the

Lena River

and the border between the

Laptev Sea

and the

East Siberian Sea

. Some melting may be the result of geological heating, but more thawing is believed to be due to the greatly increased volumes of meltwater being discharged from the Siberian rivers flowing north.

^[14]

Current methane release has previously been estimated at 0.5

Mt

per year.

^[15]

Shakhova et al. (2008) estimate that not less than 1,400

Gt

of carbon is presently locked up as methane and methane hydrates under the Arctic submarine permafrost, and 5–10% of that area is subject to puncturing by open

taliks

. They conclude that "release of up to 50

Gt

of predicted amount of hydrate storage [is] highly possible for abrupt release at any time". That would increase the methane content of the planet's atmosphere by a factor of twelve,

^[16]

^[17]

equivalent in

greenhouse effect

to a doubling in the current level of CO

₂

.

Remember, these methane vents are in addition to the warming caused by our fossil fuel use so if the article is true we could see a much larger rise in global temperatures over the next few decades.

So, for now, let's see what the researchers can tell us. I think we'll still have time for panic if it's warranted.

You can't have it both ways. If they happened before, who caused them. If not humans, who? If humans have both the ability to cause and stop global warming, then logic would suggest that we have the capacity to adapt to the climate, whatever it becomes. If we can't, if we aren't as smart and powerful as we think we are, then we become one of the "extinction events". You can't belong to both groups. Either we can overcome or we can't. So why worry?

Maybe the Mayans were right. Mayber next year is the end. I think I'm worried.

I can understand the interest in climate change. It's science, it's physics, it's weather. Many are interested in those very things. I guess that's why we have a weather board with about 10000 members.

What I can't understand is the fear. Regardless of the change, we'll adapt and so will the other life on the planet. That which does not, will die. It's not like there haven't been extinctions since life first appeared on this planet.

To hear these statements of how "unliveable" the planet will be is a "head scratcher". Unliveable for whom? The guy with a house on the beach? Yeah, might be a problem for him. For cold climate animals. Yeah, might be tough for them. But for humans, who don't live very well in the cold, you'd think that warmth would be a better scenario. Wet areas that become dry would most likely be replaced by dry areas that become wetter. Regions that can't support crop growth now would be able to if it were warmer in certain areas.

I love the science discussion here, but the sensationalism is a bit too much. Whatever happens, we'll adapt. Or we won't. Move on. Time waits for nobody.

Don't know if this has been posted, and I'm too anxious to start reading the hurricane threads to look, but has anyone else experienced well water issues. Mine, which before yesterday ran clear as crystal, now is cloudy. Anybody with similar experience or thoughts?

Biggest facepalm moment so far...a met on WTOP radio saying that a 2.8 magnitude aftershock was "half as strong" as the 5.8 primary quake.

The Richter scale is LOGARITHMIC. A 2.8 is 1000 times weaker than a 5.8.

Bad sh*t happens when novices jump into the world of mathematics.

For some reason that reminded me that tomorrow is the first day of school.

Sounds like the DC area was pretty wild during this thing. We got a really good shake here as well. I've wonder why we're not hearing anything from the posters we have down in the Charlottesville area. Maybe I just missed them. I know this was exciting, but I'll admit that it also scared me as well.

Great news to hear that you are safe. Good luck going forward.

It's not

Does that mean that you guys know his name?

heres the whole storm loop

i think the nam loops in here are ones i made.

One thing that I won't do is watch a radar once a snow storm starts. Silly, I know, but if I had seen that radar at any point on that Friday night, I might have just ended it all. I didn't realize just how close that dry slot was to my area, but it never made it in here.

That water vapor shot on Wed afternoon shows the location I mentioned earlier. The pic that was posted was a visible sat shot just as the sun was setting. I actually think it was already dark on the east coast. The pic looked like it was taken from a satellite that would have been located (over) somewhere in the neighborhood of maybe the Bahamas. It was an incredible photo.

This was my favorite image from Snowmageddon. I had been hyping this storm to my Facebook Profile for 4 days prior to the storm. I was going BIG the whole way (thanks to this Board - well, I mean the predecessor Board, but same folks). 36 hours before Snowmageddon started, I posted "2.8 - 3.2 QPF !!!!!" on Facebook. Of course nobody knew what that meant, so my post read "If this storm verifies, it will be the largest storm in history to ever hit Baltimore (it wasn't - that was "officially" February 15-18, 2003) (see footnote 1 below). When people asked me what that meant, I said "28 to 32 inches". Many gave me a "like" button, some said "Bring it", etc., but all the other posters made comments such as "nobody else on tv is/are calling for that" (remember that was 36 hours prior to start). When it verified, I was a local hero to my Facebook friends. And when I hit again on last weeks storm when TV was at "low qpf and rain", I became their official winter met (again thanks to all you).

Look at that thing (carefully) !!!! Do you see that? It is touching CANADA and COSTA RICA at the same time!!!! My comment when I posted to Facebook was simply "Here she comes!"

And look behind that storm back in the Pac NW. You know what that was, right? That was Snowmageddon II.

Such an AWESOME winter last year.

Adam

Footnote 1: First, it must be remembered that Snowmageddon was an event, not a storm. There were two storms within, more or less, 3 days. I will call them "Snowmageddon I" and "Snowmageddon II". But was "Snowmageddon I" the recordbreaker at BWI? You see, when it comes to measuring snow, the people at BWI, well, they "did it wrong". See http://baltimore.cbs...t-bwi-marshall/ Snowmageddon (the event) apparently also caused this controversy: http://weblogs.maryl..._all_ranke.html Unless I am mistaken, to-date we do not have an "official" calculation for Snowmageddon I at BWI.

There was a picture that someone in the forums posted on Feb 3 of the storm when it was over Texas. If anyone knows the picture I'm talking about and has it, please post it. It's about the most awesome pic I've seen.