WinterWxLuvr

It's brutal in Winchester (KOKV).  34/16. I hear they are doing heat rescues.

And it's cloudy.

Euro map anyone? Thanks.

Saw mention of the freezing rain accumulation with temps near freezing .......... no, it won't accumulate on roads, or even hard surfaces many times, but as we saw out here last week out here, it can accumulate easily on trees and power lines.  We had temps right around the 30-32 degree mark (KOKV reported 32 the whole time) and ice was able to accumulate to 1/3 - 1/2" on trees and power lines.  Many trees down and thousands without power for over 24 hours.  So hopefully when we transition it's to sleet then to rain.

Euro snow map? Whole region?

Wow the fv3 is super wet. If that all falls as frozen, gonna be fun no matter what the type.

To illustrate the dangers of using snow maps, and perhaps the NAM, the 6z NAM snow map has 20” of snow in Louisville (where my father lives). His forecast is for snow quickly changing to rain with a max of 1” of snow. I think it’s better to use total precip and temp profiles than those maps.

I will say the pro forecasts are more in line with the typical setup here. Especially HPC. That’s probably a good sign.

This setup is a little more sketchy than some of our best slug of precip into CAD IMO. I’d feel better to see a more sw - ne movement of the precip than is being shown. I think temps are really good but would feel better with a train if moisture coming from the sw than I am with a northward moving finger of precip passing through.

I don’t remember any Dec storm in 2013 here that was a foot. I recall a Sunday storm that was about 7”, followed by a storm on Tuesday that was about 5” and another on Saturday that was about 3”.

If the Kuchera maps are the problem then somebody post a non Kuchera map. Or one not from WB.

Buyer beware. The euro was awful at this range for today.

I agree.  Want that low as far east as Cincy. East Tn, east Ky and you get a really good slug of precip thrown into the cold.

Still think it comes north as we close. Not like December either when we needed a 200 mile shift.  We shall see.

In my experience ensembles are more expansive with precip sheilds.  I don't really think that looks to be north.  That said, as long as there are no major changes to the strength of the "storm", then I think most would agree that these things always tend to come north a bit as we approach tipoff.  If you are in any of the northern extent of the precip at this time, you shouldn't throw in the towel because many times that is a great place to be 2 days out.

Bet the Euro comes in slightly north.

Guess at this point would be a 50 - 75 or so mile shift north in the last 48 heading in.  So, if that were to occur, we would be in a decent spot per the gfs.

Should end up a smidge north, but probably not much.

Maps, maps, maps.  Please post maps.  Text data that looks like it was spit out of a 70's IBM inputted with punch cards doesn't help much, lol.

Didn’t see any Euro maps for the weekend. Hard to tell from just description.

The ICON sucks. That’s my evaluation of its performance.

There's a good CAD signature on the Euro.  There's a good cold air drain from the ne.  The problem with the Euro (and maybe others, I haven't looked) is that there is little cold air.  If you look at the 850 temps over northern NE they are only around -10.  That's not exactly a frigid arctic airmass sitting up there. So the CAD stands for "cool" air damming.

UKIE has my Cincinnati low.

I don't recall a situation in which a low that far west has given us a good anything.  For me, I'm hoping over the next 48 hours or so that the models start getting that thing further east like the euro runs from a few days back had it.  Ideally I'd like to see it get as far east as Cincinnati before it rides north.  I think that's a dream though.

I suppose that most of that initial precip is coming from the wave out in front.  I don't think a low in Kansas/Missouri can be expected to produce a bunch of precip here.

All in all, I don't think this looks good right now.

It’s all about the CAD, and nothing but the CAD. And models don’t get that right at 4 days out. Ever.

With the position of the low and the high to the ne I don’t see how the Euro can be too bad. I would have thought much better.