WinterWxLuvr

As for the operational, both the Euro and Gfs forecasts for today from just 7 days ago were awful. GFS has my high at about 30. It was 66.

Just need to factor that in when forecasting or hoping for snow more than about 3-5 days in advance.

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@C.A.P.E. @Bob Chill

Euro ens still looks good to me heading towards December. This look probably won’t get it done in late November but I would take it during peak Climo. And still no signs of the flip up top that the seasonal guidance expects. 

I like that look. A broad flat trough with that little bit of baginess in the sw. we can win with that.

Ridge west trough East can also be cold, dry, windy. Might get lucky with a clipper but those don’t seem to exist anymore. We need some flow to under cut that ridge and bring us something to work with. 
 

I’ll never stray from my winter theory of give me precip and I’ll take my chances. It’s not temp that will cause me to not see snow for the next week or so.

7 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

Yeah man now that's a Minnesota weekend. SKOL!!

SKOL!

1 hour ago, H2O said:

Running qbs just don’t have super long careers. And defenses adjust.  Once they take away the TE option for Jackson he will not do as well. 

Think if was that easy they would have already done it.

Seems to me these guys get hurt in the pocket, trying to be the prototypical NFL QB. Happened with Vick and RG3. Not sure about Newton.

Let him do his thing for as long as he can.

The biggest thing I see with Jackson is that he has an organization and a coach that have tailored their philosophy to match his skills. I’m mean, when is the last pro team you’ve seen run the option?

im not a Ravens fan obviously but I really love to watch them run the ball.

22 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

0z 12k NAM has 1-2" of snow for the eastern shore late Tuesday, maybe pushing 3 in S DE and down near SBY lol.

Defo deserving of....

 

 

 

 

 

Probably show a nor’easter next run. 

3 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

20F.  See some PWSs in the area as low as 17F.  Impressive.

Been below freezing since just b4 7 last evening, and below 25F since midnight.  Grass season is definitely over.

If it gets warm again soon that grass will grow a little. Takes a little more than one cold night to make it go completely dormant.

4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Good it's too early anyway 

I agree

19 KOKV

If the GFS is to be believed our brush with winter is going to be brief

The weenie emoji is awesome. I can’t resist

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Most have given up on Tuesday's storm but Eps has 35 /50 members give at least a trace to a couple inches for the meat part of the forum.  I'll definitely track till at least Sunday.  I mean....90 hrs out on a delicate setup . 

That’s at least a little encouraging.

The Euro was wrong about next week from a distance also. Not sure we can place a lot of hope in any of them at 7+ especially this time of year.

10 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

The Adapt 2030 people are working hard for a living. We will be adapting ... just in the other direction.

From the basement?

But how does that eps mean happen. If it’s because of one or two big totals then it doesn’t mean much at all.

35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ggem and euro both flipped back to a more amplified primary low that cuts inland. Round and round we go. 

The gfs ensemble looked that way yesterday evening imo. Looks pretty much like a cold front at this point. But who knows. And like many have said, it’s very early. Last year was pretty unusual.

From my limited resources it sure looks like the 18z gfs end members are really trying to blow this thing up and cut it right over us or to our west. Doesn’t look like a lot of good snow chances in there.

This looks like waves riding a frontal boundary to me. I could be wrong as I profess no expertise. If that’s the case we would seem to be depending on that front getting far enough south of us but not too far. Depending on the models to not overdo how far south it gets is a problem it would seem as that seems to be consistently over done. Timing of the waves with the boundary in the right place would then come into play.

it could work out great I suppose but not sure I’d hang a hat on this one even if it were later in the season.

Somebody should do a first 1” or greater  snowfall contest at the usual airports. That might be fun.

I hat the free Euro on Pivotal Weather is a game changer. Can anyone confirm?

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill

welcome back. I find it funny that when the pattern sucks the long range discussion is dominated by fear of persistence, but when it’s good it’s dominated by fear of the flip. 

Amen

Watching the Ravens and the way they can run the ball is awesome!

Given the euro solution and the gfs ens (via psu) not sure I’d totally give up on the upcoming weekend system.