WinterWxLuvr

49 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

O Mid-Atlantic Weenies, heed the warning of your thy collector of Winter Weenie Souls:

Proceed with caution. 

D7: Euphoria as the Euro reels you in.

 

D6: On the train to the mountaintop as the King doubles down.

D5: Still going strong. Euro hasn’t budged. Picking up speed to paradise!

D4: Euro stepped back but we have plenty of time to bring it back. Unconcerned.

 

D3: It begins.

 

D2:Time is running out and you can’t escape. 

 

D1: Preparing for the end.

D0: The end.

You are a crazy man lol

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Euro is really close to something for next Friday. Verbatim it snows on the western highlands and even N central MD

I thought the gfs was really close to something too.

Wow at the GFS lol. That end of week system wouldn’t take a lot of tweaking to at least be interesting. And the next week storm ... chilly.

Good job NATS. Almost seemed like one of those teams of destiny type things.

I think December can be a hard month to judge by avg temp. You can have a month that is predominantly cold or seasonal and have the avg temp skewed by a few days of anomalous warmth. December can crank out some pretty big temp departures in the positive direction. So saying an above normal December doesn’t necessarily mean it couldn’t also be a mainly wintry month

Can we lock this in Feb 29?

When talk breaks out in October about the PV, it could signal a long season

5 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Nothing in your face about what the GEFS is now throwing at us but this is a very workable look during the winter (probably still a month too soon at this point though). Also a good example of why you don't just look at indices alone but you also need to see the bigger picture and see how all the pieces are interacting. Through this 5 day time period at the end of the extended we are seeing a weak -AO, a neutral NAO, a weak -EPO moving neutral, a moderate -WPO, and a neutral PNA. Looking at these indice values alone you would probably MEH our chances. And yet put them together and I would put our chances of scoring better then average during the winter. The EPS doesn't look as promising, in fact it probably favors the GL into the interior of the NE, but it really isn't that far from being workable look as well.

Now the differences between the GEFS and the EPS on the flow through the CONUS are minimal at best so one may ask why one looks better then the other. So I thought I would throw up what is causing this slight difference. If you look at the GEFS below and look around Alaska we are seeing the upper latitude ridging setting up through the Aleutians with troughing to the east through Alaska. What this is creating is a flat PAC flow underneath that into the US. Over top of that feature we are seeing the N Stream dumping down into the US. This flat PAC flow is helping to divert any energy streaming down the N Stream to the east instead of allowing energy to move towards and strengthening the weakness/trough we see in the Southwest. Subsequently we are seeing the upper latitude trough setting up through the Midwest in a favorable local for our region.

But look what we are seeing with the EPS. The ridging and troughing up around Alaska are flipped. What this is allowing is ridging to develop off of the west coast in the PAC flow which in turn favors troughing to develop to its east. Think of this tendency for troughing as an invite for any energy flowing down the N Stream to go visit the weakness we see in the SW. And in fact this is what we are seeing on the EPS. Now the ridging and troughing on the west coast aren't extreme so we are only seeing a partial dump of N Stream energy into the SW. But this partial dump is enough to strengthen the troughing just enough to see a subsequent bump of heights in the southeast CONUS (black circle) that we do not see on the GEFS. One other thing you will note is that this partial dump in energy in the SW is also skewing the upper latitude trough westward away from the Midwest that we see on the GEFS. This whole setup alters the flow in the east and shifts it northwards. Now as I said the EPS is close, it wouldn't take much to flip its current look into a workable look as well. Then again, it wouldn't take much to flip the GEFS as well. Just a little bit of energy gets dumped into the southwest from the N Stream and we end up with the EPS scenario.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The biggest difference I see is basically the ridge position over Alaska. Across the continental US the flow is very similar. Both look like an opportunity of some southern stream energy to flow along the southern border into an east coast trough. Not a bad setup imo. I think people also tend to be swayed by the colors on those maps. If I can read a map scale properly, that height anomaly over the se amounts to about 50 feet above normal for that pressure level. Doubt that that is significant. The flow looks good on both. Now what it might evolve into is another story and one I wouldn’t even venture a guess about.

53 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Did we?

Well, my neighbor and I did

Well, we did have a pretty good snowstorm last year on Nov 15. Not impossible.

KOKV with several obs of 32

6 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Doesn't help that there was wind and clouds to keep the temp up overnight. And most people don't give a flying F about nighttime temps - we know what it feels like during the day, and yesterday was definitely cool.

Not to mention that the high/low avg method of calculating a daily mean temp is wacked in the first place. Especially so now that we have all this technology available and could easily calculate a one min avg with 1440 data points every day.

37 lowest reported from KOKV

21 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

He is just shellshocked at this point.  Even in the rare cases when he does have time he looks uncomfortable with the ball.  Putting a pocket passer behind a wet paper bag of an OL was not a good idea.

That said, Washington saw today why Case wasn’t the answer either.

Maybe, and this is just a thought here, but would it have strained the Vikings coaching staff to just have Rudolph line up on the same side as Mack? On every play? I mean seriously, pro football players should be able to handle subtle adjustments like where the tight end is going to line up. When the coaches evaluated their OL talent, did they seriously think they could single block that guy and get by with it. It’s like thinking you’re gonna single block Lawrence Taylor. If I was Cousins I’d be shell shocked too. He never knows when he’s gonna get blasted from behind.

This is about as stable of a weather pattern as I’ve seen. 

BWI 10/27

DCA 11/17

IAD 10/21

RICH 10/27

Tie: 9.11”

Funny how people who you never hear mention weather will find a way to tell you how devastatingly cold and snowy the upcoming winter will be. They have to hear that somewhere.

Ill admit though, I hope they’re right.

IAD 7.2”

DCA 2.3”

BWI 6.9”

RIC 0.7”

MBY - Whatever I report

Lol, people posting pictures at night. Yes, snow can and will stick to roads in March, but to act like there’s no difference due to sun angle is just plain silly. Anything remotely dark is sitting there absorbing radiation during the daylight hours at amuch higher rate than in Dec/Jan. Because of that you have to have good rates and/or cold temps to get/keep roads snow covered. You get light snow and 30 degrees in Jan and you will get/keep snow cover on hard surfaces, easy, even during daylight hours. March, not likely. So anybody saying that sun angle doesn’t matter isn’t being truthful. We all know it matters. It’s not prohibitive, but it matters.

It would be a huge difference. Sun angle at my house on Jan 10 is about 29 degrees. On March 10 it’s about 46 degrees. That’s a lot and I suspect it’s not a linear relationship.

Getting good in here 

Anything less than 24” and I’m out.

lol, tired of 4-6” 

“Pro Forecaster”

How are those forecasts busts coming? LOL 

11/15  -  7”

1/12-13 - 8.5”

1/17 - 0.75”

1/19 - 0.5”

1/29 - 2”

2/1 - 2”

2/10 - 0.5”

2/20 - 6.25”

_______

2018-2019  -  27.25”