WinterWxLuvr

1 minute ago, frd said:

This was touched on yesterday a bit, but the thing is the Euro is not backing down on the +NAO call at all. And, yes, it could be correct .

And then again, persistence does not mean it is correct either. 

 

 

 

Always skeptical of mean patterns. You don’t know how it arrived there. I think people take the word “average” and think consistency. That mean could easily come from a slightly negative NAO for 24 of those days and 6 days of a huge positive NAO. 
 

If course I have no way of knowing as I don’t really have any idea of how that mean is determined.

And I would assume that’s an ensemble forecast?  If so, that makes it even foggier.

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Serious question, but why? I don't remember winters much before 93.

Yeah as CAPE was saying I’ve never seen a flip like that. November and especially December were brutal. Then right about Nee Years it flipped. Down in swva where I was living at the time it didn’t snow another flake until St Patrick’s Day. 

38 minutes ago, yoda said:

I think the kicking him while he was the ground is why.  Not defending what Garett did, but the NFL has been trying to send harsh measures/punishments for incidents recently it appears

Yep. The kicking is what did it.

Gonna be interesting to see where the players union stands on this. I don’t imagine Garrett is gonna get much support.

Models? What’s that? I prefer clouds, moon, how the smoke rises, wooly worms. I get my forecasts from that.

We don’t want 89-90 ever again

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Not for a long time at least I agree. I actually hope Pouncey doesn't get suspended for his defense 

Yeah agree. I’ve never seen anything like that. It could have turned out much worse. None of us could do that and keep our job. And he probably should be criminally charged.

5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm not condoning it but Mason Rudolph does have that kind of face

Garrett should never play again.

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Is there anything else worth wasting time on? 

Just so you don’t forget, this is one soul you’ve never been able to collect. 

I wouldn’t claim to actually know but it would seem anomalous heights would be located over anomalous warmth. And open water seemingly would at least be warmer than what is normal. Seems logical to me anyway, lol.

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m out

36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS/GEPS both pop an -EPO last week of the month. GEPS signal is so strong it's a closed ridge at 16 day leads... lol. Wut?

 

We're seeing a lot of absolute primo upper level panels for a coastal storm lately. They keep getting better too. I said a bunch of times back during the 13-15 stretch about how I would like to see what would happen with a nasty -EPO and -NAO. heh. Might find out...

Anybody think that open water just north of Alaska is gonna help us, at least for a while.

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Assuming the nice looks are real...lol...we really need continuation into December before I'll feel good about repetition. November is really good at fooling weenies by going off on a total tangent before "the real" winter pattern sets in. 

That said, closest analog to this is Dec 2009

If the Euro depiction above actually happened I’d think it’s at least a front end wintry period. But sure to change in some way that far out. Nice seeing possibilities though.

KOKV with 42+ hours at or below freezing. Impressive for this early but tainted by my opinion of KOKV reported temps.
 

1 hour ago, J.Mike said:

I consider bacon a condiment. Just saying . . . . 

Hey, haven’t seen a post from you in a long time. Hope you’re well.

Can we get a dick emoji? Asking for a friend.

16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Maybe rename the other thread to include November, then shut this one down.

Anything short term can go in the Discobs thread.

And ofc, if there is a legit threat before the end of the month, a new thread shall be created. 

I  this post

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm not upset with the 12z GEFS:

 

That’s pretty close to the look I’m looking for.

Can we pleases lock this thread and use the new one?

Besides clippers another thing that seems to be gone anymore are the broad troughs the seem  to be backed up against the front range of the Rockies with a piece of energy running down the slope into the lower Mississippi valley and cranking a storm that runs through the mid south and turns the corner up the coast. Just a memory. Possibly selective but those seem like they used to be more common. 

55 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Tiebreaker must be SBY or LYH.

OKV does not measure snowfall.

Changed it.

39 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I know you know this, but looking at composites/means do not imply that the given anomaly will be there 100% of the time. Give me a general cold look imby and I will take my chances every time- If its dry, its dry. Can't snow if it's not cold enough. You clearly view things from the other end of the stick, but thats a function of our disparate climo in this region.

Yeah it’s a two headed coin. Gotta have the cold. And we certainly can’t score with a whopping se ridge. A little bit of one can help sometimes. I guess for me my thoughts are if it’s stormy enough we will get lucky some with temps. And yes, those means only give a broad outline. What is shown is better than the reverse.

15 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

BAMWX supports the idea of a trend to colder than normal risks for December.

What is interesting is the ridge in the SW US. That would signify a weakening of the STJ. EPS showing the idea of a -NAO developing just in time for Thanksgiving. Should be fun.

That ridge in the southwest would signify to me that we would be depending on something northern stream to dig enough to get under us. More than not that ends up being cold and dry. 

BWI - 31.5”

DCA - 21.7”

IAD - 37.5”

RIC - 9.1”

SBY - 7.3”

Stephens City - 3.2”

On 11/10/2019 at 4:03 PM, attml said:

My prediction is as follows:

BWI: 52 inches
DCA: 31 inches
IAD: 39 inches
RIC: 12 inches

Tiebreaker (SBY): 16 inches

 

That BWI number is almost as high as Maryland’s avg points allowed this fall.

LOL the RPM. Never will forget how that thing nailed the March 2013 storm. I mean it was unreal how good it was from about 24 hours out. They put that model on the weather channel the day before.

And Cantore came to DC anyway.