WinterWxLuvr

With no strong low pressure within a 1000 miles it’s a lock that the low level cold will hang on longer than modeled

At this point the thought process should probably be: Is there a storm? Is there a CAD signal? Is there a high pressure to hold the CAD?  Beyond that it’s a fruitless and pointless exercise to look at precip/snow totals.

This has Dec 2012 written all over it (the euro solution).  

We are fine with a low in the tn valley. If that happens we usually get pretty heavy precip, hang on to low level cold during the dry slot/drizzle part and cold as the low passes or jumps. If that low is further west, we don’t get much precip and we seem to warm faster at the low levels.

Just my take.

Ok, just have to say this, but in my opinion climo is not a good standard for winter. I surpassed climo in 15-16 and I hated that winter (all 72 hours of it lol). To each his own, but snow events and extended cold with at least some snow around is what winter is all about. I also think January was a very good month here. Think it was about 12 or so inches but more importantly it was spread out over 5 events with two plus solid weeks of snow cover and cold.

Granted if February does the same, I’ll reach climo but I can see a winter that comes up short of that being good and one that surpasses it being bad.

Look past the colors on those anomaly maps and often there’s very little or slight differences in the actual height lines.

Also the MJO forecasts have been awful. They can’t even get one day right.

11/15  -  7”

1/12-13 - 8.5”

1/17 - 0.75”

1/19 - 0.5”

1/29 - 2”

_______

2018-2019  -  18.5”

From living here for a while, there’s a one thing that usually holds true. Cold fronts rarely, if ever, bring significant snow along the 81 corridor. This is just not a scenario in which we do well out here.The famed squall line from a few years ago that brought a decent snow east of here brought about a ten minute burst of snow here. Tomorrow I fully expect to see a very short period of light snow, perhaps enough to put a dusting on everything, 1/2” or less. I also expect to see the radar bloom just on the other side of the blue ridge and give a general 1-3” snow to the areas north and east of Winchester. We might get a surprise out here but I think it wise to prepare for a disappointing winter weather event out here.

The only way I could see a better outcome is if the front slowed a bit as it passes. Still, I view this one with very skeptical eyes.

An almost exact duplicate of the ICON.

This forum has been tough to read this year.

Hopefully everyone realizes that we still have 6 weeks or more of solid winter left.

MJO forecasts have been completely unreliable IMO. I have watched them consistently and they seem to always be 4 to 5 days of progress and then a stall or turn toward the COD. That turn doesn’t usually happen and then it keeps progressing through the stage. If the first good stage is 8, then we will probably be there in a week.

2 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Yeah.  Not much to talk about for awhile it seems.

That hasn’t stopped you yet.

New thread guys 

We need some new luck. 

Let’s go. Time for a new thread, new mojo.

I think it’s coming north. Now whether that means any snow makes it to northern va is a different matter, but I think each model cycle will bring it North somewhat. I think it’s already starting with this model cycle. 

Before it’s over I honestly believe we may end up worrying with the too far north/west situation. 

It does seem logical to ask the question as to whether the Canadian could possibly be correct when you frame it with the "this is a northern stream issue, northern stream vorts originate in the main domain of the canadian model, so shouldn't it be able to resolve those better" thinking.

Is there any evidence to suggest that that model handles the northern stream better?

And how are 500 verification scores created for global models?  Can a model handle certain regions better, some worse and that affect its scores?  Or no?

23 minutes ago, mappy said:

yes. especially since its verification scores are dead last at day 6 (500mb level)

That's an interesting graph.  Note that the lowest scores in the past month for all of them came from our last winter storm.

7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

An early guess on the gfs is that this will be further north. Don’t laugh if I’m way way off

Not so sure now, lol

An early guess on the gfs is that this will be further north. Don’t laugh if I’m way way off

2 hours ago, Round Hill WX said:

Confluence from the north is ALWAYS overdone at this range. It’ll be Wednesday/Thursday before it is resolved. 

I wouldn’t say always but I agree that confluence in the ne is often overdone 

I will not for one minute wish this storm north of the current euro solution or any other suppressed solution. I think there are many here who know that. 

Another thing ... even suppressed storms usually end up further north than modeled 

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Of course there is a scenario with no storm at all. Remember last year that one storm that was just going to roll out of the southwest and throw a ton of moisture at us and it just vanished? I think we need to get inside of a week before it becomes a serious threat. I do like how it has the look of a classic blockbuster for our region. It's just really, really early for that kind of storm for our region. I thought 12/19/09 was super early for us.

When the ens members almost all have the storm, I think that worry can be put aside.

35 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

That is more inline with the 06Z GEFS which was south of the op.

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

I think @psu once said that models do much better in nino/blocking years. Do you guys see a scenario where there is no storm at all? Not seeing this att

The suppressed mean is because of timing differences and one or two that don’t have the Storm per se.  The ones with the storm actually don’t have any that look suppressed to me.

This has a classic look to it. 

A lot of people have been talking about this period for a while. I myself wrote a post on this on Tuesday. This has legs IMO

Think this is one of those storms. Already been followed for four days