WinterWxLuvr

7 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Everyone should savor Friday nights possible 1-3 inches. Enjoy it in good health and in good times.

Because that is probably it for the year.

Another below average year. But hey, at least we might crack 10 inches?

30+ inches and epic patterns LMAO!

No need for me to look at models I suppose. Crystal ball?

12 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

2012-2013

2016-2017

2019-2020

I agree on 2, but 2012-2013 was anything but a bad winter out here. Heck when got over 20” in March alone that year. Now 2011-2012 was awful. 

The latest GFS is not a shit the blinds run by any means

4 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

That's literally best case scenario IMO lol

I get that. But for me it’s the worst. The famous March storm of 2013 was the best example. It snowed 11” here and I hated it. About a week later it snowed about an inch and it was awesome … because it actuated got colder as the day went on.

And what looks meh right now might turn out that way. It works both ways.

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

just a catastrophic modeling fail in the Atlantic. oh my god. worst I have seen in quite some time

whatever, though, there was a SECS today, which isn't guaranteed even in stellar patterns. just sucks that it fucked up the HECS pattern, but what can you do, really

I think you mean the “long range modeled HECS pattern”. That’s the thing with long range. I don’t care if it is an ensemble or that the ensembles agree, there’s little skill in weather modeling at long range. I know some will claim otherwise but a broken clock is right twice a day. You get out past day 10 and you’re on thin ice.

For me it depends on temps Saturday. If it’s another 2-3” snow that falls mostly at night and starts melting the second it stops snowing I’m ok missing out on it. 

Say what you want, but this was a modeling fiasco.

5 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I dare the weather gods to make me eat crow.

Offer to pay $200

Pouring snow here. From the looks of va511 the traffic is a mess

The HRRR is just silly

14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

It's 43/43 here right now brother. I am as big of a weenie as there is here when an event warrants it. Maybe I will bust. But I am not feeling this one. 

Does that include your pummeled and beatdown posts from earlier lol

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Snow depth with those temps is probably about as accurate as you are gonna get. If you prefer the Kuchera it isnt a whole lot better. The airmass is marginal to say the least. 

The main difference from earlier is precip amounts, which truthfully are probably very difficult to nail down. People talk about warm ground and yes we had a couple of warm days but we also had about 3-4 straight days last week in the upper teens.

Lol. Go ahead and put faith in the NAM, HRRR, and RAP again.

2 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

Lies. The developer of that model says it's sh*t.

Good because every cycle there’s less snow here

9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

KC will suspend him for first game next year 

Not a chance. The NFL might though

The NE forum is not the place to be right now.

Just now, MN Transplant said:

The 17z HRRR has it snowing at IAD with a temp/DP of 37/37.

What is the temp at 950? 

The HRRR has got my house, tough to tell with the maps, at about 4” in one hour starting around 4 am. I would get out of bed for that.

This is so reminiscent of the late Jan 2010 storm. Not in the type of storm because they are night and day different, but I’m the hopefully late trending our way. We shall see I suppose

18 minutes ago, RockabilyJunior said:

I wasn't following over the weekend and now I am very confused. Is it snowing tomorrow? It seems way too warm. Do we expect any accumulation?

Rain. No accumulation 

8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

CMC was better than the RGEM this run. Rare to see them that far apart. 

The RGEM has been strange with this one.

11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

We got time for a south trend

You need that northern low to die and that ss storm to explode

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Watch up in the northern tier

If this model trend continues, advisories are gonna be flying like geese later.

HRRR keeps getting incrementally better