WinterWxLuvr

BWI: 23"
DCA: 18"
IAD:  32"
RIC:  11"

Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH):  SBY 13"

Not sure I see the GFS as a wrap around snow deal. I see it as a wave of low pressure sliding south of us that barely has enough warm air push to get 850's above freezing out here. Once it is east of us temps fall and theres still enough energy to produce precip.  Don't see this as an actual "snow" but I do think it might produce rain/snow or snow with enough precip still happening to at least be something to talk about.

No mention of the 12z GFS for next Tuesday?

Yeah that trof axis on the gfs is much too far to the east.

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Tucker Barnes and his team are with the snowy and late winter call as well. Nice write up from them by the way:

http://www.fox5dc.com/weather/2018-2019-winter-outlook-for-dc-colder-snowier-winter-for-region#/

Its obvious that the people making those maps don't understand where the mountains actually start.  Snowfall west of Winchester is pretty much the same as it is in Winchester until you get well to the west.  Move that 60-90 about 10 miles east and you have where the mountains are.

Winter started? 

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 We all realize you are decoupled from reality!  How do you have time for all these posts?  Shouldn't you be putting up sand bags to keep out the rising seas or or working on your tin foil hat to combat microwaves?  

See my post above ^

Life from mom's basement.

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

See what you've done lad?

Classic

35 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Some of us still underestimate the radiational cooling of Richmond. BWI got down to 35 this morning, DCA to 43, and RIC to 38. For DCA to hit 32, they almost need an arctic blast, while RIC can do it with the passage of a mid-fall cold front followed by clear skies and calm winds.

I would think that the water around DC matters in the early fall too.  I don't know what the temp of that water is, but I imagine it's still pretty warm.

30 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Not sure why anyone would be panicking at this point. Things look good at this time leading in. Sure as hell beats last year. Don't know how many times I put an optimistic spin on something that I thought was for the most part crap just to keep the masses appeased. Really haven't looked into things this year like I normally do (just haven't had the time) but I do like what I have seen so far. For what it is worth I am leaning to a first half of winter that won't be too noteworthy but will offer up some chances none the less. 2'nd half is where I think we shine. 

It's what we do, lol.

May be some mega busts here.  If you believe some of the models I'm seeing.

On 10/7/2018 at 2:46 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

"to end" 

You left that out.

I've always felt better about a warm October than vice versa.  I guess it's the old rubber band theory, but I'd much rather see a warm pattern now than a cold one.

2 hours ago, Cobalt said:

So.. Who's gonna be the first to create the first Mid-Long Range disco?

Too early

30 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

We live in the subtropics. Mid March through Mid November should be warm around here.

Lol. Clown post bro

49 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Lol.  Yep better than the upper 80s previously forecasted , but I wouldn't consider that nice.  With the sun and humidity, not a good day to spend outdoors in my book.

I was on the other side of the blue ridge on Friday and it was cloudy and cool. As soon as I came back across the mountain it was sunny and humid

1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Could do without the rain, but temp is nice.  Yesterday was glorious.  My daughter's 3rd B-day party was yesterday, just a perfect early fall day weather.  Thank goodness it wasn't a day earlier.

The high Friday was 77.

2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

And pushing 90 again late next week.  Good ****ing grief.

Strange, my forecast only has two days above 80 in the next week.  83 is the highest.  I better double check that.

1 hour ago, FXW176 said:

Just picked up a quick tenth as a band from Florence moved in from the SW. P cool.

Band from Florence?  From the southwest?

2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

With no end in sight.

If it were June, I'd agree.  But with September coming on Saturday, time is on our side.

Pretty sure the planet will be ok.  Maybe not humans, but the planet will roll right on.

1 hour ago, H2O said:

If we park our cars on our roofs so that they make it too warm for the snow to pile up then we don't need stronger rafters.  Think, guys!  

Damnit, why didn't I think of that?  

I'll start building my ramp today.

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

You must be so much fun at parties. 

5 hours ago, mattie g said:

Because snow caves in roofs so often around here.

I decided to reinforce my rafters after seeing that post.

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Won't know until mid-late Sept at the ealiest. Right now everything looks good enough. We need luck more than we need a nino. Sure, nino helps but good snow winters are loaded with good luck and bad winters are luckless. No predicting that piece of the pie until you're shoveling. 

Nailed it.  Luck matters. 2010-2011 was very close to being a great winter out here, but it seemed we literally found a way to screw up every time. And last year, being just far enough north that any decent precip events were squashed south. Then there’s 13-14 when it seemed everything trended perfectly.