WinterWxLuvr

Time for the new thread. Good luck all!

11/15  -  7”

_______

2018-2019  -  7”

Near my house

Not home so have to go off of neighbors measure ... he says 7 inches and he’s one to actually use a ruler.

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I think you're right actually.  I wouldn't expect a real legit chance until around the 1st and likely beyond.  That said, here we are today...

 

Yep. Wasn’t it just about 10 days ago that the prevailing theory was that we would be in a Ridge/warm period by now?

34/21

Thought the Mid Atlantic Forum Algorithm says to take the snowiest solution and run with it.

Is there really an 18z euro?

14 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/11/13/messy-mix-snow-sleet-rain-likely-thursday-accumulation-slick-travel-possible-colder-locations/?utm_term=.3cf4a6207bbb

Thank you.

Just now, Bob Chill said:

yea, that's a 5 day mean too. Prominent longwave features in all the sweet spots. Evidence is building for a pretty sweet setup leading into December. I'm 1 week away from disrobing and going all in. 

Just go all in.  We don't need the rest 

I'll bet watches are coming before this day ends.

Just now, Bob Chill said:

13 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

CWG has a nice write-up from Wes!

Can you post a link?  Thanks

Not seeing any mention of the Euro, but from knowyoursky it looks pretty good.  Can anybody with better access comment?

37 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Can you look at this, in all honesty, and say that most people on this sub forum will see more than an inch or two?

I’m all for positivity, and I know 1987 happened, but sometimes we have to be realists first and base our expectations on the information coming in.

To be honest, I usually only look at where I live.  I think most of us do that.

My expectation is that this resembles Dec 26, 2013 for most of the area.  That storm was a different setup as it was a TN valley storm that jumped to the coast, and a more pronounced CAD, but I think this storm may be very similar in the weather that we see.

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Nice.  We all gotta stay grounded and realize that for most folks, an inch or two on the sidewalks, cars, etc is all we're gonna see.  This is early season pre-gaming with house money.

It may happen that way, but I do not agree at all that that is all we may see.  This has the potential to be a good winter storm.  This is a much bigger threat IMO than Oct of 2011 was. And we are already midway through November.

Good trends and a good chance.

With the Euro and Ukie on board and trending better, I have a hard time believing at this point that we aren't looking at a significant winter event in parts of the area.

This IS early but not exactly typical IMO.

It has been pretty cold leading up to this.  If it does start as snow, and as early in the day as it is, I could see this being able to lay down accumulating snow right off the bat.

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Lmao! I’ve been Nam’d and GFS’d tonight. Warning type ice accretion on both models down this way and we continue the colder trend up to game time. 

My experience is that any situation where CAD is involved the trend is usually colder as it nears.

That's an impressive EPS map for a storm only 3 days away.

Just now, Wonderdog said:

I'm concerned about the temps. I agree with you about the needed track because we need the winds to come from the north or northeast to cool us down.

Dewpoints on the GFS are in the low 20's and the upper teens on the NAM at the onset of precip with actual temps in the low to mid 30's.  I haven't looked at any temp profiles, but at least in the beginning, temps support frozen precip of some form.  

I'm looking at it out here of course.

Another truism at least for me is that precious seems to always move in and out a bit quicker than modeled in these setups

This seems to be a bit of a CAD setup. One truism is that low level cold is always under modeled and usually modeled too quickly to leave. 

21 at KOKV this morning. My battery is gone in my sensor.  Normally 1-2 below KOKV.

How often does BWI have higher totals than Dulles?