WinterWxLuvr

I have always felt the Pacific is the dominant player because we are downstream of it. We may need blocking to get big snows but with a +PNA at least we are usually cold with at worst chances for small events and less likely to have a complete crap bucket of a winter like last year.

Heck no. Let’s have a meltdown now. Get this off to a good start.

It was oh so close to being a really good winter though

I don’t disagree but when you’re looking at 100 year trends you also have to take into consideration the differences in urban areas along that 100 year journey. Lot more concrete and asphalt now vs then. The March 2013 storm is a great example. Just a few miles outside of that heat island was heavy snow. A degree or two made all the difference. I think to draw conclusions on the 100 year trend with snowfall you’d have to get away from urban locations and look at a small regional collection of data. I know that I’ve looked at the data for Winchester and the thing that stands out the most is the randomness of the high and low snowfall totals. I definitely think the climate will be a factor, just not sure that’s necessarily gonna show up in snow totals, or what that factor will be. Now if we get 10 of the next 15 winters as warm as last year, I might be singing a different tune.

I agree with this on temps. I still think that with warmer global temps you’re gonna see small scale climate features that may be colder than the old regime during winter. We just don’t know where those are gonna set up. We probably can surmise that it won’t be us though, lol. But it’s gonna take a while before we can draw conclusions. A 3-5 year lean stretch is t enough to draw conclusions imo.

This is good. People forget that we had a pretty bad run from the late 80’s into the early 90’s as well. I’m also old enough to remember some clunkers in the early 70’s. Climate is longer than a few years, even longer than 30 if you want to be honest about it.

Does anyone here actually remember last winter? There’s no way it will be worse than that. @WxWatcher007 will be giving huge discounts on suites by the time Feb rolls around because nobody will be booking rooms with him.

I’ll guarantee we have a better winter than last year. Mark it down.

But it was awe inspiring for some. Truly a storm of the century, maybe many centuries.

They used to but it’s been a while so we’ll see

I just want one 2-4” clipper just to prove they still exist.

That winter missed by an eyelash of being a really good one. There were January and Feb near misses too. There was also the good clipper that missed us to the south in December. Id take my chances with those types of opportunities again.

Actually bathetic didn’t show much at all but about a day before all of a sudden the gfs and others jumped in and showed a big event and then just as promptly started taking it away. We were duped

My memory of the 96 storm is different. I remember it as a storm that formed in the western gulf that rode up through Georgia and the Carolinas and then off the coast. I don’t remember the 2010 storm being anything like that. I of course could have a faulty memory. I should edit that to say I remember the 2010 storm as an eastern gulf, off the east coast late developer.

That index is money ... as in you won’t have any money if you bet on it.

Not sure if this post is directed at me or him lol

Do you understand the role that mountains play? Being to the east of the the Allegany front is a killer for us. Especially with light snow and snow shower activity. Your Albany example isn’t a good one either. You’re talking about a place that is nearly 4 degrees latitude north of DC. If you went that far south you’d be somewhere between Charlotte NC and Columbia SC. Do you think East or west would matter in a snow comparison with them? And to further illustrate just how bad the Albany example is, Albany is 3.25 degrees longitude east of DC. At this latitude that’s roughly 180 miles. Hmmmm, so much for the Albany isn’t too far west idea.

Likely to see a lot of that this winter too

Yeah you probably won’t miss a flake. That is true. It’s just how we roll

Looks like about to get hopping here in the next few

Will end up 582

That’s like hoping to see a dinosaur lol.

I’ll second the post from above and say, with 100% certainty that there’s no way this winter will be as bad as last year. The WDI will Trump any other acronyms this go around. The winter doesn’t exactly have to do much to top that fiasco.

I think analog forecasting isn’t all that great. Sure it will work most of the time just like predicting median snowfall will have you looking decent in the end. But I’d venture to say that there’s been more than enough winters that would have gone strongly against whatever analogs that would have been used to predict them. What would the analogs have said heading into 95-96? 14-15? 15-16? Some winters are just simply gonna bust the analogs. Some good. Some bad. And winter can be so tricky with luck and timing. I have no idea what the general patterns and stats look like in retrospect for the winter of 18-19 but the lasting impression of that winter is that it was pretty good. We had enough snow and enough cold that it felt like we had had a winter. And perception is reality regardless of what any final numbers may say.

I’ll say this much for that post ... it’s an absolute fact that we don’t see clippers of late. That’s puzzled me for a while. I’ve even made mention of that myself.