WinterWxLuvr

Awesome. Frontal snow. That’s even more reliable than wrap around snow!!!

I hear ya and I’m old enough to remember the winter of 90-91 too. That winter down in my neck of the woods made last year look good. So god awful winters are always on the table. However, since it’s all about perspective, just a handful of events can certainly change the feeling. If we could get a few periods with decent cold and then get lucky with a little snow I think we’d all rank that above last year. Truthfully though I don’t really give it much thought. Whatever it is, I have no control over it.

I love having you around but look at my last post above. You did it on first down LOL.

Happened with Sandy. 3’ of snow in WV mountains

^ This is the person that writes the Farmers Almanac

I thought we’d already done that.

Yeah but that was a very anomalous event. I’d rather not have to wait on the once in a 50 year event.

Devastated. Had already started planning on starting the thread.

Thing is though that it can’t snow usually in a Nov Dec torch, but you can get lucky during a mild Jan Feb and even March. So if this is the only option we have it’s the best option to have.

That early season snow looks really good on the gfs. Getting excited

Lows in eastern Ohio are our bread and butter. They work great in January, why not October as well?

Yeah but what I was saying is that that map shows extreme high heights in the pacific but the height lines don’t really show a pronounced ridge. So what I’m asking is would “normal” heights produce a trough there? Not really commenting on whether what it shows is good or bad. It’s pretty clear it’s bad. I’m just confused why mega high heights (relative time normal) don’t produce a pronounced ridge.

LOL your data was sea ice. Like everyone doesn’t already know that. I have no idea if you’re wrong. That’s my whole point. You can’t look at the past 5 years of winter and draw a conclusion that we’ve entered into a new era of winter weather. If you want to say we’ve entered into a new era with arctic sea ice then I’d say your data supports that. See ya, bud.

I do have a serious question. Or two. That look is almost zonal but in the pacific it shows that same zonal flow as being much above normal. Is “normal” a trough there. I mean if you lower heights in a zonal flow wouldn’t that result in a trough? Also, aren’t those heights in the arctic centered in such a way that it’s “leaning” toward eastern North America? Couldn’t that produce bouts of cold in the east from time to time with just a bit of transient ridging along the west coast?

Two weeks until it looks different? Over/under?

You said since 2006. I said half of those winters have been good. I guess we can revisit this conversation in 14 years.

Ok but we aren’t talking about sea ice. If this new regime is to be applied to winter outcomes then we basically can say that roughly half of the winters in this 14 or so year long new era have been decent to good to great. I’d be willing to wager that if you take the preceding 14 or so year period you’d probably find about half of those winters to be decent to good to great. In other words, I don’t think there’s data that links the warming to the winter outcomes. If there is I haven’t seen it. And I certainly don’t think you can link arctic sea ice to the outcome of winter. If that’s the case then explain the years 2012-2013 through 2014-2015. Not seeing this new winter area, especially after just a handful of less than stellar winters.

But isn’t there some evidence out there that the NAO and perhaps the AO operate on decadal cycles? CAPE and PSU would know this. If so what’s happening could just be part of that. IMO, 18-19 was a decent winter, at least here. The other 4 were bad, with last year being a lol joke. But before that 09-10, 10-11, 12-13, 13-14, 14-15 were decent to extremely good winters. Again speaking for mby. So if I get on average 6 of 11 winters that are good, I’m gonna be ok with that.

That’s a 4 year data set. Not sure I’d draw too many conclusions from that. But hey I’m just posting thoughts not trying to challenge your ideas. You are a valuable contributor here.

I think it’s a little early for the new era. When would you say this new era began? And even if the global climate is different, have we already nailed down the local climate impacts? How big is the data set? I’m old enough to remember some crap winters in the early 70’s, late 80’s, early 90’s and late 90’s. I remember being a kid riding a new bike in 70 degree temps in Christmas Day somewhere around 1970. Winter can go on runs of terrible. This isn’t the first time it’s ever happened.

I’ll wager, literally, with anyone that we average colder than last year with more snow. That’s a very safe bet because that bar is very low.

I see clippers and gradient setups in our future. And my favorite, cutters into CAD

No

BWI 11/2 IAD 10/23 DCA 11/2 RIC 11/2 Tie 81