*Severe weather is possible Tuesday*
Relatively good agreement amongst models on cold frontal passage
late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Shear will not be an issue as
ample low level and deep layer shear will be present. As is
typical for transition season events, especially those
transitioning into the cool season, instability may be the
limiting factor. Even in the presence of only weak instability
however, strong dynamics may be enough to force a shallow
convective line along the front with an attendant damaging wind
threat. The area is not currently outlooked but would not be
surprised to see the risk area shift eastward in subsequent
updates. CIPS severe analog risk percentages continue to increase
and have shifted further toward the area in the last 24 hours.