Brian D

What I can glean from Ft Snelling written notes, Dec 1857 was mild, and Jan 1858 was too, but Feb turned cold. My monthly data charts confirm this.

There's a possibility that the W sub experienced similar conditions back in the 1700's. Tree ring reconstruction of ENSO shows this. Data would be very nice, but it's all we have. And of course, other teleconnections need to be in play, as well, to get what we have now. I've had this chart for a few years. Sorry, don't remember where I saved it from. Not a big fan of tree ring data, but it can be useful sometimes.

For some who have, or may wish to ever come skiing up along the North Shore, sad news. Lutsen's main lodge burned down last week. It was built in the 40's, and was a replacement from a fire back then, too. Lutsen's history is well over 100 years (since the late 1800's I believe). Just read it in our free local paper. I don't use social media, so I'm sure others knew long before I did. Fire Marshall is investigating, so at some point, should know what caused it. Not that skiing, or any winter sports is enjoying a good year this year. They will rebuild, but that will take time. How it will affect their operations in general. not sure, especially for next season.

0.25" of rain, then 0.2" of snow the last couple days. Temps running seasonably warm with what looks to be more avg temps by next weekend. Very nice wx.

Nice looking meso low moving through S MN with a band of rain, and maybe thunder. Looks like its heading in my direction.

I-Falls record isn't that good. Pretty short. I looked at this and was rather bummed to see how much data is missing prior to 1948.

For Easter this year, I'm expecting a system to be moving through our region on that holiday weekend. A mild start turning wet & stormy, even into April Fools day.

My forecast for St. Patty's day this year looks like CA system moving through the N with potential energy affecting the S sub.

A bit of rain in the offing starting later today with some light snow on the back side. Looks like 0.25-0.50" expected. Take what we can get. Precip needed no matter rn or sn. Then temps cool down to seasonably mild conditions. Been a warm start to the month. Very mellow wx wise.

Prelim data in, and a warmer Jan driven by the stronger anoms in the N sub is in the books. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively.

So-so call. The HP swung down a little E of where I expected, so not much for colder air because of that. Had some light LES myself today Feb 1. And others may experience some light stuff as well.

Snow showers off the lake this aftrn. Adding a little garnish to the patchy snow otg. Temps spiked from 32 to 45 this am before dropping back to 34 currently. Trying to be winter

Duluth ended at 23.6. Minneapolis at 28.2. Marquette data is still missing for the last 2 days and should end up around 28.6/7 for Dec-Jan. Interesting that Dec 1877 was extremely warm, and Jan 1878 was a little cooler. Mirrors this winter so far. Here in Two Harbors Dec-Jan avg is tied 3rd since 1894. 1931-1932 - 25.9 2001-2002 - 25.6 *2023-2024 - 25.5 2005-2006 - 25.5 1997-1998 - 25.2 1913-1914 - 24.8

Record in I-Falls of 53 (45 1999) as mentioned above as well as Hibbing at 50 (46 2009) with records starting in 1938. Most stns have records in the low 50's starting in mid-Jan. Most late Jan records tho in NE MN are still in the mid-upper 40's. In fact, mid Jan - mid Feb is mainly mid-upper 40's with a few 50's in the mix. The I-Falls record of 53 would be the new monthly record (49 1/20/1921), and 2 days earlier than the 55 (1991) on Feb 2nd making it the earliest 50 reading there since 1948 (along with a spattering of earlier records)

Just looking at daily records, there were some rather mild days in there. Can see how foliage could quickly sprout. Happens when you get a false Spring, and buds come out, then get damaged from cold. Before that pic was taken, looks like a 4 day warm spell. Temps overall look pretty decent. Nothing too cold. 12/1/1931 0 0 37 30 12/2/1931 0 0 41 27 12/3/1931 0 0 48 29 12/4/1931 0.54 0 41 33 12/5/1931 T T 34 26 12/6/1931 T T 36 32 12/7/1931 T T 36 20 12/8/1931 0 0 32 19 12/9/1931 0.55 1 39 32 12/10/1931 T 0 42 34 12/11/1931 0.12 0 62 42 12/12/1931 0 0 47 35 12/13/1931 0.05 0 41 36 12/14/1931 0.21 0.3 42 30 12/15/1931 0 0 38 30 12/16/1931 0 0 46 29 12/17/1931 0 0 49 33 12/18/1931 0 0 46 29 12/19/1931 0.02 0 52 35 12/20/1931 0 0 46 35 12/21/1931 0.16 0 49 38 12/22/1931 0.67 0 52 45 12/23/1931 0 0 50 44 12/24/1931 0.01 0 57 37 12/25/1931 0 0 37 23 12/26/1931 0 0 35 22 12/27/1931 0 0 38 29 12/28/1931 0 0 45 36 12/29/1931 0 0 40 32 12/30/1931 0 0 35 30 12/31/1931 0.33 0 34 27 1/1/1932 1.41 0 40 33 1/2/1932 0.03 0 40 34 1/3/1932 T 0 38 34 1/4/1932 0 0 38 28 1/5/1932 0.4 0 44 35 1/6/1932 0.2 0 52 31 1/7/1932 0 0 38 31 1/8/1932 0 0 41 31 1/9/1932 0.01 0.1 32 30 1/10/1932 0.04 0.4 33 26 1/11/1932 0 0 35 29 1/12/1932 0.54 0 53 35 1/13/1932 0.11 0 56 50 1/14/1932 T 0 55 44 1/15/1932 0.61 0 59 36 1/16/1932 0.11 0.2 37 32 1/17/1932 0.3 0 50 37 1/18/1932 T T 38 31 1/19/1932 0 T 37 26 1/20/1932 0 0 43 36 1/21/1932 0.37 0 47 37 1/22/1932 0 0 48 37 1/23/1932 0.32 0 40 35 1/24/1932 0 0 35 24 1/25/1932 0 0 43 27 1/26/1932 0.49 0.2 39 32 1/27/1932 0.08 0 41 32 1/28/1932 0 0 41 29 1/29/1932 0 0 52 35 1/30/1932 T T 35 15 1/31/1932 T T 19 6 Sum: 7.68 2.2 Count: 62 62 62 62 Average: 0.12 0 42.4 31.6 Median: T 0 41 32 Low Value: 0 0 19 6 High Value: 1.41 1 62 50

Very mild day today with temps cast for mid 40's. Running in the low 40's atm as we are coming into peak for the day. A very mellow few days. Looks like the Dec-Jan avg is going to come in at a solid 2nd behind 1877/78 in Duluth. That sure was a warm stretch back then up my way. Too bad there weren't more stns having data from that time here across the N MN, or at least accessible. I'm sure there was some spotty data at some other sites around that time. Listing Marquette, MI at solid 3rd and Minneapolis, MN, edging 1877/78 for 1st. Strong daily avg today will bump it up a little more. An impressive winter so far. And it looks like Feb 1878 was extremely mild as well, so we shall see how it goes for Feb 2024, and what the final tally is for this winter season. Duluth, MN 1877-1878 - 26.6 *2023-2024 - 23.3 1888-1889 - 22.2 1931-1932 - 22.1 1890-1891 - 21.5 Marquette, MI 1877-1878 - 29.9 1931-1932 - 29.5 *2023-2024 - 28.4 2001-2002 - 27.9 2015-2016 - 27.3 Minneapolis, MN *2023-2024 - 28.0 1877-1878 - 27.8 2001-2002 - 26.1 1913-1914 - 25.9 2011-2012 - 25.5

0.8" fell throughout the early am-early pm today. Mellow, mild wx on tap for the rest of the week. Don't mind a bit, but would like to see a good ol' fashioned blizzard at some point.

True, it was baity I guess. Wx extremes are very cool, hot or cold. But GW fanatics only like to point out the hot stuff, and call the rest just normal fare. Wx weenies love both. And yes, it will be a warmer end to the month for our region, especially in the N. And last winter was a record snow year for many areas around me, but this year has swung to the opposite, so far anyway. It can swing really quick around here. 2012/13 is one example.

For our region, near avg in the southern (SW especially) Sub to well above for N sub is most likely. The Plains tho, they are so far below avg that the milder wx coming isn't even close to warm enough to reverse it that much.

Wonder why ClimateChanger isn't on the ball?

Actually, I believe it's around 15,000 an acre in size or larger.

I put big pics into Paint, then resize. Then save as gif to reduce from MB to KB. Look just fine when I post them here. Same with NWS story boards, that are many times 1-2 MB png.

UK has such a maritime climate, with an occasional Arctic blast. Not surprised. But we in the NC US have the best wx for us weenies to enjoy, even if it can get dangerous at times.

Temps not as cold this am with cloud cover, and a very light (fine) snow falling with a trough moving through. - lower teens to -upper sd's. SW winds 5-15, so wind chills slightly better. Highs still running low sd's. Warm up this weekend will feel nice.

Boiling water on the stove to keep humidity up. Bitter air is desert dry. Stays comfortable with a little higher humidity. Furnace runs a little less, as well.