IronTy

My backyard amphibian pond hasn't frozen over even once and I still have the waterfall pump going. And even worse, the hanging petunia baskets on my front porch are already regrowing. The only time that ever happened before was....last year.

JB is as much a weather weenie as anybody on this site. There's the official WB winter forecast, but inevitably JB starts getting wrapped up in the possibilities of some big storm potential if this high does that and that low does this and...eventually it all boils to the MJO for him. He sort of forgets about the WB official forecast. Eventually the JMA or Euro will destroy his dreams (sound familiar?) and he'll capitulate to warmth in a blathering video (expect Rocky references). If he does this early enough in the winter then we can expect snow following the capitulation. If he waits too long to capitulate then hope is lost.

I'll take any M'er F'ing blue if they giv'n it away.

Lol

Weatherbug complete capitulation for next week's storm. 50F and rain. So much for those tea leaves.

Nothing's worked at all for the past two years to the day so I'm sure it'll be gone by morning. But it's on weatherbug so I'm getting the feeling this time is different.

That southern look is just where I want it right now.

For the record, weatherbug sniffed that out first. I'm really liking a threat withing d10. Might have to mount the blade on the Muck Truck.

My sources assure me that it's a proprietary model that takes into account all the dynamical(tm) data.

This is the period my weatherbug app says to expect snow at my house. Lock it in.

Lol weatherbug says 80% chance of snow, partly cloudy and a high of 44F for next Friday. One of those is bound to be right.

My weatherbug app is showing a snow threat next Thurs/Fri. It's been more accurate than any of the actual models so there's that...

We're still building up to the '96 pattern. Takes time to evolve - February. From my lips to God's ears.

Don't worry , it's gone in the 06Z...maybe

That Baffin block sure gives us the money shot on temperature anomalies.

But I don't deliver papers?

Low pressure over detroit at d10 on the GFS? Right where we want it at this range...

This is where I'm at, and why I'm ready to embrace the humid subtropical climate zone.

I'm just an armchair amateur and I subscribe to all the WB models mostly just for fun, I've been doing it for a couple years now because I like learning about the weather. But frankly I've become really disenchanted with modeling. There have been dozens (hundreds?) of runs of models, even in the 5-day timeframe over the past two years that have showed significant storms and EVERY. SINGLE. ONE. has been wrong. Not just a little wrong, but completely wrong. That's an embarressment. Like serious, every single run showing snow has been wrong for two years. The temps haven't even scored that well. What's the point of them? They're terrible. I try looking at the h5 level just to get the pattern trend but outside of 2-4 days they aren't even accurate. I'd be better off just looking at my weatherbug app and its 10-day forecast. Maybe the pros get more out of them because they can apply some sort of bullshit filter to each run. Thinking about it further, I'd have to run some statistical analysis and I'm not going to waste my time doing it, but just the laws of random chaos should dictate that at least a few of the runs showing snow would come to fruition. It's hard to actually be so bad to pitch no hitters for multiple years in a row. Eventually you start to accuse the pitcher of rigging the game...

It might just be the new normal in the warm regime. Reminds me of growing up in Michigan in the 1990's when we hardly ever got significant snowstorms. I don't see any signs or reason for the oceans to suddenly start cooling any time soon.

This year I bought a snow blade for my Muck Truck and was really excited to get to use it. I should know'd that probably jinxed things.

Didn't we also have pac puke for most of last winter?

Does that mean I'll get to open my windows and wear shorts outside like last winter? If yes then bring it on.