I wonder which models they use - since it's an entire month I assumed it was the long range models. Whichever three it was they should just pay me their dev fees and I'll spit out random number that'll be more accurate. The secret is no matter what the pattern looks like to just guess positive on the anomalies. Almost a guaranteed lock.
What the fuq. I just got the results of the WB December forecast competition. I was in the top 25% of entries...beat almost half the models and 33% of WB's professional forecasters. If that doesn't tell you what kind of scam this industry is then nothing will. I don't even drink and I still think I was drunk when I made my entries.
"Congratulations on ranking 19 out of 72 competitors in WeatherBELL's December Forecast Competition! You've shown impressive skill in long-range weather forecasting, beating 3 out of 7 models and 2 out of 6 members of the WeatherBELL team!"
I don't know why I allowed myself to have any hope for this storm. Like I haven't learned this lesson like 45 times over the years. Looking at the 10-day forecast on my WeatherBug app is more accurate than watching the models ..
Well that is a nice morning surprise.to start out the New Year. Good to see the R/S line shifting SE with each run as of late. Still need to see another couple shifts for MBY but I might have to put the snow blade.on the muck truck today just to be ready.
Same here, 2016 was kinda meh, at least as much as a 12" storm can be meh. Dec 2009 ftw in my 20yrs in SoMD. Of course LES snow in Michigan during my childhood was on another level...but that's not the same.
JB has been lashing out at model runs recently which is always a bad sign. And this morning in a post he laid the groundwork for his forecast fail. "Just be glad you got to live through an epic period for snow storms". This might actually be a good contrarian signal for us.
Anecdotal....
We have started the process to build our cabin on Meadow Mountain next to DCL. We own the land already so it'll be build only. Planning on a relatively modest A-frame at this point. So far the process has been relatively painless. We have the concept and the architect has started work on construction drawings. We are deciding between two builders at this point. Goal is to begin construction in March and be completed by the holidays next year. So far all guidance is that this is doable.
I'll build deadline penalties into the builder contract to keep them motivated, and we are doing everything with cash already on hand so maybe that helps too.
So far we're being quoted around $220/sqft. That's build only - like I said we already own the land. Big variable will be cost to get electric from the nearest pole to the POE.