WhirlingWx

Could end Kansas' tornado drought this year if we do get some action there

What is it with those SW TX storms that always seem to do their own thing in May? If I recall correctly, there were some instances of it last May and I'm sure in some years past as well. Currently a storm east of Fort Stockton which is SVR warned with TOR possible mentioned

They had the area of greatest concern for large hail just now upgraded to an ENH risk within the SVR T-storm Watch... Interesting.

Yeah it shows now and the storm is below severe levels as it tracks southeast

Welp. I was thinking the storm would go south through Denton and Tarrant counties but it's taken an interesting turn to the east and looks like it'll hit here in southern Collin County... warned for 65 mph winds and ping pong ball sized hail.

Aaaand now we have one TOR warned storm... in South Carolina

@jojo762 was near there as of last time he posted, I wonder if he stayed in the vicinity.

This is from the outlook regarding the area of focus for a tornado threat ...OK/KS/MO/AR/TX this afternoon and evening... Latest surface analysis shows a low over northwest OK with the dryline extending southward into western north TX. This dryline will surge eastward today as a cold front sags across KS into OK. Current indications are that the triple-point of the cold front and dryline will be over far northeast OK by late afternoon. There is also a subtle warm front extending from northeast OK into central AR. This boundary will lift slowly northward as well. The result will be a zone of low-level convergence and rapid thunderstorm development in the 3-5pm period over extreme southeast KS, northeast OK, and southwest MO. These storms will be in an environment of very high CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and ample deep-layer shear to support supercell structures. Low-level shear profiles will also be very strong - especially in vicinity of the warm front where backed surface winds will enhance 1km helicity values over 500 m2/s2. Storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes (including strong tornadoes). The primary negative factor for tornado risk is the linear forcing mechanism along the cold front, which may result in undercutting and a transition to linear storm structures within a couple of hours of initiation. This activity will likely spread east-southeastward across northern AR after dark with a hail/wind and isolated tornado risk. Farther south along the dryline and cold front, storms should develop through the late afternoon and evening across the eastern half of OK and perhaps into north TX. Very large hail is the primary risk with these storms. Mentions the somewhat quick transition to a linear mode being a possible limiting factor to the tornado threat, which might have been discussed here(?), ingredients look impressive though.

Yep, heard that and then another saying 2 miles north of Richardson so I assumed those were the same one. Both had 78 mph. Weird to hear two different relative locations but since they share a border I don't know what else is between there

78 mph wind gust between Plano and Richardson, according to a prelimimary storm report

Lots of lightning, wind starting to howl and rain is picking up.

Yep, hearing rumbles of thunder now. Looks like a sort of line has congealed from Denton County down to Fort Worth, 2 severe warnings cover the line. Winds for the northern warning up to 70 mph possibly, large hail mentioned as well.

Northern Little Rock metro looks to get hit by a strong part of the squall with a TOR warning there and definitely strong winds

With the storms moving towards the Metroplex being more discrete, there is likely an increased threat for hail from them. As for tornadoes, currently meh (which is good news). Latest MD states that the best threat for a tornado or two is NE TX/SE OK/SW AR

Denton, TX currently in the path of a severe thunderstorm, with other SVR warned storms to the west and southwest, out of the cells that have crossed the Red River

It certainly stuck out to me as well as the strongest out of the three in that image.

Those signatures came up pretty quickly, but moving east so they'll likely be taken over by the line soon?

Yeah, does PDS for severe t-storm watches have a different criteria than TOR watches (with regard to probabilities)? I want to say yes but I can't remember for sure

Looks like SELA has the only tornado report of the day so far as well

Watch coming soon including DFW area Mesoscale Discussion 0494 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0806 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020 Areas affected...north central through northeast Texas into southwest Arkansas and northwest Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 290106Z - 290200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms with a threat for mainly damaging wind and large hail are expected to develop southeast into north-central and northeast Texas, southwest AR and northwest LA this evening into tonight. A WW will likely be issued prior to 0130Z. DISCUSSION...Severe storms continue developing along a southeast-advancing cold front from eastern through south-central OK. The downstream warm sector across north-central and northeast TX is very unstable with the 00Z RAOB from Fort Worth indicating 3500 J/kg MLCAPE and 9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates along with 35-40 kt effective bulk shear. An inversion was evident near 800 mb at the base of an EML, and convective inhibition will increase as the surface layer cools. However, deep forcing and convergence along the southeast-advancing cold front should remain sufficient for additional thunderstorm development this evening into tonight. Both multicell line segments and some embedded supercell structures will be possible with large to very large hail and widespread damaging wind gusts the main threats, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

MD on the segment of the bowing segment impacting Springfield, MO says 60-80 mph wind gusts possible as it moves east

Ah yeah I remember, did we have a couple tornadoes with that one? We actually had a few storm systems and tornadoes in June. My family and cousins got the bright idea to go to a community swimming pool that day, storm took everyone by surprise and the leading edge of the line was ominous and rotating in front of me. We got some gusts of 60+ mph there.

Yeah, I've been wondering about that too. Being on the western/southwestern edge of the line (most likely) got me wondering if we could see a broken line of cells impacting our area rather than the squall, but I still think that with this being a northwest-flow scenario (as you said), and really not much shear in the area, I'm not very concerned about anything more than maybe a few weak tornadoes (then again, there's a lot of built-up areas here and it'll be late at night), but trends will continue to be monitored. The threat may very well increase, it's just not looking that way to me as of now. If DFW ends up getting in on a derecho, that'll probably result in a lot of power outages and damage in its own right.

Tulsa metro has been under the gun, with Springfield, MO next- I'd expect there to be more activity in this thread!

Now a TOR warning in N OK and another in Louisiana in a separate storm complex.