MN Transplant

GDPS is great, but I'd pump the brakes on HECS-level. DC and north looks like it is <1" QPF.

Exactly. This is a fail as far as what we want, but that is a solid northern stream vort that does some good work for us. Still a couple to a few inches of snow with temps in the teens.

The SW low is in exactly the same spot as the 12z GFS.

I was just poking around the Euro and had to go all the way down to Rocky Mount/Raleigh before a warm nose at 725mb showed up. It is amazing how cold these runs are.

At least until we get convergence on the individual members. This is still a substantial spread on the GFS. Still ~8 of 20 members that are duds for most of us.

And showing the suppressed GFS isn't going to get clicks.

The models didn't know. We all did.

Chuckles nervously in Minnesota Vikings... Looking back at the prior runs, it was the 12z GFS run yesterday that figured out that the storm was not a cutter. Since then it has been consistently south, but we have plenty of time. The other solutions this morning are really fun to see.

@high risk would have a better explanation, but usually if the models are struggling with surface temps while everything else looks normal, it is something to do with how they are implementing approximations via a boundary layer scheme. Global and regional models simply can't calculate everything, so you effectively end up with little "models" inside of models. Models have always struggled with how to calculate the mixing and radiative transfer near the surface in stable conditions. The Euro is handling this poorly, which is how you get a minus teens forecast for parts of Virginia next week, which is not going to happen. I think it is even struggling with temps in the pre-storm period on Saturday, given the much colder surface temps than the GFS despite only 1° difference at 925mb. I'd just be cautious with any surface temp output from the Euro right now.

Just a reminder that the Euro surface temps are completely broken, so go with the GFS and adjust based on storm location if you think the Euro track is better.

We had not-even-close-to-accumulating flurries so I'm pretty sure they'll be a T. The discussion in this thread about slick streets is a completely different world from what we experienced around DC.

Trace of snow both days this weekend.

Cold and dry

Watching that 500 low move SE into Baja is something else

Rain

Models say you might be able to sneak it in. The mid-level clouds that will be coming in from the south look like they'll hold off until midnight or so (look at the 700 RH on the GFS). Higher level (500mb) RH still gives you a window before 11pm or so. Going to the mesos, the HRRR/NAM Next look good through 10pm while the NAM parent has some clouds moving in closer to 8pm. All-in-all, you'll have to make a call on how much risk your group is willing to take.

I'll grant you all a nice 4-6" storm while I'm gone the week of the 26th, but if there is a big dog I'm cursing every last one of you on this board!

Sleet. Not sure I have enough to go with 0.1” of accumulation.

Yeah, you and I have the same look outside. A hint of whitening happening now. 33.8

35.6 and flurries

Cloudy. 34.9

You have to understand that us neutrals are salivating at the thought of Harbaugh in Pittsburgh and Tomlin in Baltimore.

Missed the flakes here, but it is certainly gusty.

Not sure if this has been covered yet, but with the snow more attached to the 500 low, the temps aloft are cold enough to put us in favorable ratio territory on the GFS. So, yes, we'd like more precip, but this could be fluffier than normal.

For a single event, I guess I’d go with the January snow since it was only the 2nd time in 6 years that we had 6”+ on the ground. And it stuck around forever unlike the Feb snow which was gone in two days. Really though, the story was the complete lack of precip from about mid-July forward.