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Leesville Wx Hawk

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Everything posted by Leesville Wx Hawk

  1. Leesville Wx Hawk
    In this case however he should have been familiar with the trend game and should have at least gave the GFS equal love. Just to downplay without giving the other side of the argument isn’t quite right. Now, if he were to add that he simply feels that QPF being overstated recently or if he is putting more emphasis on it being flatter, I could see it. This just screams at least an inch or 2- maybe I’m crazy.
  2. Leesville Wx Hawk
    Mike Maze at WRAL only showed the European and said he wasn’t expecting anything with temperatures above freezing. I notice a trend at WRAL. Downcast everything until it is actually within 24 hours.
  3. Leesville Wx Hawk
    Good to distinguish for people.
  4. Leesville Wx Hawk
    I remember that Brick. It was a good memory.
  5. Leesville Wx Hawk
    Most on the forum would take this and walk away.
  6. Leesville Wx Hawk
    It was amazing. We have seen the GFS sniff out storms well in advance in the recent past. It did a good job with the February 2025 event and the mainly coastal event in January 2025.
  7. Leesville Wx Hawk
    Looks like you can stay in the Triangle possibly for this one.
  8. Leesville Wx Hawk
    Wilmington now on notice!
  9. Leesville Wx Hawk
    I really hope it works out but it’s looking about as likely as the Panthers getting a victory today. Fat lady not singing yet but she’s now on the stage.
  10. Leesville Wx Hawk
    I’m with you North Hills.
  11. Leesville Wx Hawk
    Captain of chaos.
  12. Leesville Wx Hawk
    Not bad. At least it’s interesting and some of us can enjoy the warm up.
  13. Leesville Wx Hawk
    Excellent work as always GaWx. My initial thought is how is this correlation with phase 6 when you consider the SST anomaly not being significant? DT was suggesting we are basically near neutral at this point.
  14. Leesville Wx Hawk
    Good point GaWx but we started to see signs of a developing -NAO which eventually merged with that funky GOA ridge. The 12 Z EPS Ensemble mean gave me little hope but doesn’t jive with American or Canadian. Does anyone know how La Niña is faring? We something to change soon so that mid month to February can be salvaged.
  15. Leesville Wx Hawk
    We are definitely at least 2 weeks away from a Brick Tamland sighting at peak climatology. At least Wake Forest scored nearly an inch earlier. I only had 0.3 here a bit north of Leesville. EPS wasn’t a terrible look by the end of the run. It would be good to see all models converge towards ridging in the west with the SE ridge becoming a non factor. We shall see however because nothing good snowfall-wise is coming until this improves.
  16. Leesville Wx Hawk
    Thanks for posting this! Very cool big picture approach that I like. Maybe I’m missing something but NAO didn’t appear to look good on the Ensembles moving D10-15 500 mb graphics. Another consideration is that La Niña may become less of a factor over time which could bring in other factors like MJO.
  17. Leesville Wx Hawk
    Me too.
  18. Leesville Wx Hawk
    Cold without snow imho sucks. I know some of you like it so I get it but just enjoy the milder conditions thru Jan 14 th. After that, we can probably have something to track.
  19. Leesville Wx Hawk
    If this verifies, it would be a good day to apply science to my golf swing!
  20. Leesville Wx Hawk
    Looks like 4th and 7, need to punt. Maybe the offense can matriculate down the field a bit more once we establish a solid - EPO in about 10-12 days.
  21. Leesville Wx Hawk
    Nice post. The end of the Ensemble means began to show signs of a + PNA with some blocking getting a little more robust near Greenland. Hopefully we are finally on to something. .
  22. Leesville Wx Hawk
    18z GFS even further west with trough and is responding to the building negative NAO that you mentioned. .
  23. Leesville Wx Hawk
    We sure do. Let’s see how it trends? My guess is that it won’t move much further. Canadian Ensemble mean showing extended GOA to Baja ridge which isn’t a terrible look with Greenland blocking. It’s a crap shoot right now LOL. .
  24. Leesville Wx Hawk
    Hard to dig the trough far enough westward in this set up. GFS ensembles did cave to EPS but it’s still not enough for our region. Need Nina to get beat down soon to have a shot. It has been taking it’s time warming up. .
  25. Leesville Wx Hawk
    According to JB, this is just natural and has nothing to do with increased CO2 and other greenhouse gases. I don’t buy that at all. We have increased from 370 to 420 ppm CO2 in the past 25 years. This can not be a coincidence. .
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