Modfan2

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I think restoration is going well here. Many are already back online. 

I agree, I think it was a combination of 8” of rain in a week and high winds brought down some big trees; restoration process is moving right along with most fixed within 2-3 days; usually the day after is to survey and get restoration crews in place.
People tend to have unrealistic goals of when things should be fixed.

Power back late last evening; after being through TS storms here and Hurricanes in FL I chuckle at the those who wish to see a Hurricane here. A strong CAT 1 or higher would be devastating and most would be without power for 1 to two weeks or greater.

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It's literally named Mansfield Hallow Windham airport dam. You literally walk above looking at the runways.

Surprisingly my daughter still has school, was dropping off when the squall came through 

Some interesting squall lines heading for Central/W CT, might clip eastern CT

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

If we get more rain here than a week ago…that’s gonna have some flooding implications.   Last week had zero wind here…let’s see what this brings with regard to wind. 
 

And regarding Phil’s map…he has 50-60 mph winds here…that’s Isaias type winds here, I’m not buying that right now. The big rain for CT I do buy, but not those big winds…..?  Maybe this will be the very rare time the winds do roar.

And I think rain will be less than last week, more in the 3” range with a little more wind than we saw last week.

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a jog east on guidance. Winds more related to ern CT and especially RI and SE MA. Big rains CT as a result. 

So essentially last Monday in a nutshell?

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh ya…I remember the 1980 frigid snap very well…brutal.
 

But I don’t remember any significant snow on Xmas of 81??  Usually that stands out in my mind..must have been very minor here.

Yup, Christmas 80 didn’t get above freezing if I recall. 

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Dec of 92 was like that here…tons of precipitation, with heavy heavy rain, that transitioned to frozen precip almost 18-24 gets after it started, and snowed the whole next day.  
 

Now Before anybody says I’m saying this is Dec of 92, I’m certainly not. Just comparing the amount of precip that looks to “possibly” be associated with this thing, and seeing some other possibilities that “could” be on the table,  that somewhat reminds me of that Dec 92 idea.  

Remember it quite well, was delivering for Dominos to Nichols College on the Hill in Dudley, pounding snow at the school with 3-4” on the ground and just rain at lower elevation at the store

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One thing I like is that the brief Stein from November seems to be a thing of the past.....seems to be plenty of precip. I know the @TauntonBlizzard2013's of the world will expect that to abate once the cold comes, but I don't think so.

I was onboard with a cyclical type change with as wet as 2023 has been I figured we were do for a stretch of dry weather; clearly not.

The jumping off the winter bridge talk here on December 12th is amazing! I remember going to Sunday River about this time in the early 90’s with no snow on the ground and they only had 26 runs open. I think winter of 95/96 didn’t get cranking until mid or end of January.

As we approach the end of the year, are any SNE stations approaching any records on yearly precip/rainfall? 

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

There's also a modeling cliff around 24 hours. You have guidance like the HRRR, RAP, ARW, etc that don't go much beyond that. So issuing warnings/advisories before you get to those modeling ranges can leave you wondering what happened when the damming is all of a sudden stronger than the GFS or Euro was saying.

Glad you brought this up; wonder if we can track by storms which models were accurate; sort of like fantasy football @weatherwiz but different l.?

23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Incredibly exactly 5 inches of rain at 5AM this storm.  Still raining Moosup Ct

Wow, only 3.45” here so far; elevation help?

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We wild 

The next round to the south looks to hit River west

7 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

1.15" down here.  Radar looking juicy for overnight.

Up to 1.05” here just to your north

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Looks like heaviest is starting to shift east of us?!

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Several pieces of guidance show the
possibility of the low stalling, or even backbuilding a bit,
overnight, which would prolong the duration of heavy precip.

The overall QPF forecast remains consistent with the previous shift,
with a maximum of 4-6", perhaps locally higher, forecast over east
central Connecticut and central Massachusetts. HREF ensemble
consistency has been rather remarkable over the last few runs, with
little to no wobble in the anticipated axis of heaviest
precipitation and consistency in the 24 hour LPMM (best reasonable
guess for maximum precip potential) showing a widespread swath of 5-
7" across the aforementioned region. While it may seem
insignificant, both the CMC and GEFS ensembles show bullseyes of
10-30% probabilities of 4" of QPF or greater over
Tolland/Windham County Connecticut; which is marked as a
considerable signal for significant precip in terms of global
guidance. Thus, with all things above considered, collaborated
with WPC and our neighboring WFOs to upgrade the Excessive
Rainfall Outlook to MODERATE, to highlight the increased
potential for flash flooding. 

Radar shows 84 corridor near you and just to my NW the heaviest; assume this where it sets up? .47” here so far

16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s been dry here but 4-6” of rain in a short time period will definitely cause some issues 

Drought cancelled 

Looks like heaviest rain possibly shifting east into RI/SE Mass

57F and .09 so far

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR moved east. Floods Ginxy to BOS. Wind cancel. 

Map?

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Might be just east of you 

Think it’s going to be just west of me, from Hebron over to hills of Scotland north and east from there

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh we’ll still get 50+ here .. just not the high end 60 

I don’t think so, highest winds should be eastern Ma, cape and Maine

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

3km with a pretty decent squall line moving across far eastern MA and the Cape late Monday morning/early afternoon. That would produce some serious wind gusts

That’s where I think the worst of the wind ends being 

42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

3.5” of rain and 2” of snow. Sure 

Better to get the rain before the snow; I guess some are lucky!