Modfan2

Hmm odd blue sky this morning, we take. 

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah if we can set up a true blocking episode…it will help prolong the favorable look so that maybe we have longer than just a 7-10 day window. 
 

I’m skeptical until it’s right in front of us. Weeklies do try and run with that blocking and take us well into mid-March at the end of their run still with a favorable look. Not that any of us should trust the weeklies. 
 

It that seems to be the theme of the winter, long range pattern looks good but within 10 days things change. Do we see any big cold in the extended? I am wondering if the pattern going forward after V Day looks favorable but is that for Pike north?

31 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Hopefully we've seen the last of the rain for a while.

 

At some point the pendulum needs swing the other way; the question is when?

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even @snowman19lately has been mnaking efforts at honest engagement....not sure why that is so difficult for some. There will be a warm up in early February, sure post it....but post everything else, too.

That fact that we are in 2024 and models are less than accurate even within 24hrs leaves plenty of room for discussion and conjecture; none of this is exact and no season is a carbon copy of another. Having said that moving back from FL I couldn’t have asked for two better winters to ease the wife back into the cold weather!

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The CFS is dry for February.

I mean we’ve been pretty wet since summer and you have to think the pendulum swings back the other way; I honestly thought that it would have happened by now and we have close to 17” of rain since Dec. 

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Very interesting for sure…but it could be a gorgeous pattern(if it indeed ever materializes) and still not produce much of anything as you say for our area, as has happened repeatedly for two years now.  That’s always the chance we take on any pattern.  Good info Tip. 
 

One would have to think, after missing on decent/good patterns so much the last couple winters, that even in the worst of stretches, the odds/law of averages at some point have to play in…another words we are due for something to break in the right direction for the area as a whole.  

The odd part is not that we have missed out be cause precip wise we have been above normal, but the temp dept we have been marginal. Going forward do temps favor us and we lose out on precip chances? At some point we will go through a stretch of drier weather, does that happen now? Does it happen Spring or Summer?

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Only 372 hours out

Lock it; models have been pretty reliable within that range! 

Wow, might have gotten more snow out of the 10 min squall than I did all weekend 

Seems pretty meh after the thump 

Dry slot approaching, temp back up to 34F and over to rain…It was fun while it lasted 

Moderate cat paws and sleet in Brooklyn still 33F, ground coated. 

Ping fest with Snow mixed in, roads getting slushy

Actually impressed, down to 33F and sleet with snow mixed in at 250’ and ground starting to whiten. .39” liquid so far.

Surprisingly start to whiten up the ground with sleet/snow

Getting back into the heavier band, snow mixing back in

Looks like snow bright banding around Ginxy, wonder if he is seeing snow?

34F still here in lower elevation in Brooklyn and sleet

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

What an absolute deluge yard is flooded for the 30th time this winter. .97” in 6 hours.  16” of rain since Dec 1 and 6.1” of snow. 

Yeah, pretty much done with rain at this point; I don’t think the rain totals over the last few months get enough talk

34F and steady rain with snow mixing in and .30” so far

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’ll see if Kevin can flip in the next 1-2 hours. If not, that basically means nada for most of CT east of Litchfield county at least. 
 

Dual pol does look like snow north of Ginxy in N RI and extreme NE CT but hard to say if any of that is reaching the ground as snow or just melts prior to reaching sfc. 

34F and raining just to my north in Woodstock so not sure it’s looking to promising; would like to see some reports from S ORH county to see if anyone is mixing.

32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t have a good feeling about this part 1 this morning 

We tried to tell them! 

35F and rain.

33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d def feel more optimistic in CT than earlier. At least the northern half of the state with a little elevation. Hills could score well on the thump. 

How much rain do you think we see? I’m sitting at 250’  so not sure how much snow I will see.

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nam Mos is 4 mthfers here

Elevation helps, I will be lucky to see 2”

How much rain will we see here in CT?

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i don’t think that the GFS solution is likely by any means, but it certainly is a possibility

DIT growing a mullet is a possibility.