binbisso

the last few model cycles look to bring in some pretty cold air next week. 1st cold front Monday with slightly below normal temps the next one around the 4th or 5th looks pretty impressive could be negative 10 to 15 departures. Maybe 1st freeze for many areas away from the coast. Let's see if it holds

@donsutherland1 in your post above you have Nino 1.2 at slightly positive right now however when I look at tropical tidbits ocean analysis it's showing Nino 1.2 at -.8. Am I reading it wrong or is there another site with more accurate analysis? Edit. Nino 1.2 has also been negative for the last 6 weeks on tropical tidbits site

Yup. Even going forward the temperatures look to be near normal through the 1st half of November if long range guidance and weekly's are correct. Negative 10 departures do us no good until we get late November and onward. And who likes 48ﾟ and rain the first half of November.

I'm a winter weather lover however We are far from Winter. You're crazy if you haven't loved the weather the last 6 weeks. highs in the seventies and lows around 60 perfect. it could stay this way till Thanksgiving for all I care then we can flip

That is probably true 30 plus years ago But in our new sub tropical climate as some posters here have pointed out Warmer and wetter seems more likely. We could have a dry month or even a dry year In certain patterns but that's probably more the exception than the rule going forward

Yes. As bluewave said yesterday, today is going to have ++ min departures. The splits today at Newark is 74 and 70 in New York City 73 and 67. Yesterday it was upper seventies and low eighties for highs and mid fifties for Lows. Either way you slice it the weather is very comfortable temperature wise

Looks like Early season snowfall for the West. places like Denver even Seattle and the Portland area. I guess nature has to balance herself out. it's so warm here it's going to be unseasonably cold out West. Edit: It looks like the mountains just East of Portland and Seattle will have their 1st snowfall this week

What a fantastic stretch of weather Coming up the 1st half of October temp wise. Seventies by day around 60ﾟ at night you can still wear shorts and do any outdoor activity do not have to put on the AC or the heater. I'll take this any October let it last through mid November. Obviously the days it rains it will be cooler but it will not rain every day the 1st half of October

Except it will be 80ﾟ over forky's house and Newark. While it's 60's in Philly nyc and Boston.lol

true but conversely a 594dm Ridge over the northeast in mid September Should have much warmer temperatures than in the mid to upper seventies for most of the region

Looks like we start September-3* for 1st week and maybe beyond. Forecast high for cpk are 72,74 74,76,79 and 81 for labor day followed by what looks to be a nice cool shot next week. Normal highs are still around 80*.

Wind very lite today. No down slope heating. Temps probably Max in the low nineties Today with heat index right around actual temperature

Yes! 86* dp 59. I thought we were in for high dew points. Very comfortable out

Was out at Stony Brook li this afternoon very little rain And wind. Driving back heavy rain in Nassau queens Bronx and Westchester. Worse condition here than closer to the storm

Deluge here. Tree feel on power and cable lines knocked out cable and internet lights flickering on and off. Just missed my cars

My nephew's marine unit are the ones in Kabul now removing US citizens and US embassy staff. The mission should be completed in 72 hours. It seems that there will be a peaceful transfer of power there. Our government is in contact with the taliban telling them it's in their best interest not to take the city by force.

The front is East of Scranton and South of Albany another nice break from the heat coming up

I think what makes this summer feel less hot is the constant breaks we've had. The heat waves while impressive have been short lived. We had the very cold Memorial Day weekend even though technically not summer cool 4th of July weekend and then 2 cool weeks from late July into the 1st week of August. the hot summers I remember is the relentless 90ﾟ heat from late June into early to mid August before we get that 1st refreshing cold front. And those hot summers were usually dry too. This year it's 3 or 4 hours of nineties with 100ﾟ heat index before a thunderstorm cools things off late afternoon

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/south-hemisphere-america-cold-winter-outbreak-fa/

Bluewave usually enso affects our weather patterns here. will the warm pool across the northern pac interfere with enso/pattern here this coming fall/ winter?

It looks like we will not hit excessive heat warning criteria today Mainly because dew points are 5ﾟ cooler than yesterday. Highest heat index I can find in our area is 101ﾟ Most places between 95 and 98.

Even though temperatures started off warmer than yesterday Newark Is 90ﾟ at 11:00 a.m. same as yesterday. laguardia is 88 which is 1ﾟ less than it's 89ﾟ reading at 11:00 a.m. yesterday dew points are running about 2 to 4ﾟ below yesterday's readings which makes today much more tolerable

You are probably correct on the dominant pattern this year. it just seems that Newark always runs hotter than most other sites nearby. I'm curious to know is Newark warming faster/higher than other sites in this sub forum?

Yes. Not just that but too many humans on the Earth not enough forest and trees too much concrete and asphalt and big cities, tall buildings which do not allow heat to escape

No not getting to me. These puny 3 to 4 day heat waves Not that impressive to me. I have seen much worse. One thing I can say this summer will not be remembered for heat throughout 99% of the northeast except for Newark of course