Rhino16

9 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

If today's 12z Euro is correct, Norfolk should hit freezing for the first time this fall soon. Below are the projected 7am temperatures for Wednesday morning with ORF at 32°F. The Euro then has a low of 30°F for Thursday morning. Time will tell as the GFS wasn't as cold.

Although Richmond made it to 32°F back on the 2nd, next week will feature the first hard freeze of the season, about 2 to 2.5 weeks later than usual. 

Hopefully the cold lovers down there get their cold too.

On 11/22/2023 at 7:03 AM, RIC Airport said:

RIC is at 1.92". 1.16" of that was thru midnight 11/21.

0.1 off, Can’t be mad at that. 2 off for my high is disappointing but temps are where I struggle, so not unexpected.

edit: My guess of 0.76 was exactly right! High today was 2 off, edit2: Low was 1 off.

That’s much higher than I would expect, but we haven’t had any good snow in so long I can’t remember what good numbers are.

in terms of rainfall, I think I was too high for today, and the event overall, but we’ll see.

Did we ever get 3 hits on an ensemble last winter at all?

27 minutes ago, nj2va said:

3k NAM juiced up at 00z.  Over 2” for good portion of the area.

I feel like it’s a little low for Richmond, but it’s trended less this run so maybe not.

Final Numbers:

11/21

Hi/Lo: 61/41

Precip: 1.06"

11/22

Hi/Lo: 63/47

Precip: 0.76"

Precip Total: 1.82"

Posting this early, and I will edit before end of tomorrow, but here's my numbers for RIC:

11/21: 

Hi/Lo: 59￪/40

Precip: 1.18￪

11/22:

Hi/Lo: 63/44

Precip: 0.53￬

Precip TOTAL: 1.71

Too early to tell now, but from what I’ve seen while forecasting various locations the past couple weeks, rainfall totals have been more than the euro, but slightly less than the GFS. I might have some fun and post my guesses for temps and rainfall on Monday evening.

I just drove up 81 and near 64 it was so smoky…

BWI: 25.4”

DCA: 18.4”

IAD: 26.9”

RIC: 16.3”

Tiebreaker LYH: 20.2”

I think AI will be useful in accounting for biases the models have. 

And it may help in producing more accurate forecasts for areas like Canaan, but higher resolutions may be the answer for that. (Which means more computing power).

Will it get to the point where we run model output through an AI and that’s what our model output will be?

Looks like we’ll top out here in the upper 50’s with dew points in lower 20s. That’s dry. 

18 minutes ago, mappy said:

Great question! My understand is that it would be used by emergency management, and open to general public vs needing a spotter ID to submit directly to NWS. It is not limited to just PG County, would be communicated across other emergency management offices. Also not limited to storm damage, hail, or snowfall reports, could include traffic accidents and other situational awareness reports. So if a neighbor posts something on social media about damage to their house that they otherwise wouldn't report to NWS because they are not a spotter per say, you would then pass that along to the group. 

Is this to help get people involved in the warning verification process, so that it makes the NWS’ work a bit easier?

1 hour ago, mappy said:

Spent the day in Richmond attending the mid Atlantic severe weather conference. So much good weather research going on these days, and got to meet a lot of folks I’ve known from Twitter in broadcast meteorology and emergency management.

There were lots of interesting topics! Not all of it I understand quite yet, but probably by next year I’ll know more.

Flurries have begun!

Staying up to hopefully see my first flakes here in blacksburg. I think I’ve seen one but could have been a bug. If I haven’t yet I should in the next hour or so.

DCA_NYC_BOS__ ORD_ATL_IAH__ DEN_ PHX_ SEA 
 

-0.9_-1.5_-1.0__ 1.5_1.5_1.5__ 2.0_ 0.5_ 0.7 

Just to be sure, NYC is JFK right? Not that it changes my numbers or anything.

Does anyone know how accurate the daily climate data reports are? One said it snowed a trace along with a trace of rainfall  on the 16th of this month, but the low was 42… I’m having a hard time believing it.

17 hours ago, Jebman said:

Many people are going to suffer horribly from this El Nino. It has already been seen in Acapulco with the unbelievable strengthening of Otis. They had no warning at all. Weather forecasters should be totally embarrassed.

Tonight, I got snuckered in really bad by this weather system to my west. I was so scared, horrified of being caught in a deep rushing flood as I drove by one of hundreds of low water crossings, that I decided not to go out on my beloved deliveries. Only to find out that the weather system to our west has not moved a g-ddamned inch all night! I just missed out on what would probably have been one of the greatest delivery nights of my entire lifetime! That's not the worst of it though. The worst of it is some other shmuck got all my orders tonight, because I was too damn SCARED of drowning in a so-called rainstorm that the National Weather Service got wrong as sin! Well here I am, all disappointed, missed a whole night of deliveries, and I am high and FRACKING DRY!! Isnt it like the Texas NWS to completely fruck up per usual! Every one of those posers need to go back to elementary school!

Texas is incapable of forecasting weather down here. That system never moved one frackin' INCH in 8 hours! Not ONE INCH east! And I missed a whole night of deliveries! And someone else got all the money I would have made tonight, IF I had known what a monumental fruck up Austin NWS is and always has been for at least the past 30 years!

I dont care about rain, I love delivering, especially at 5am in pitch black dangerous neighborhoods like southeast DC. I am the very BEST delivery person the entire world has ever heard of, except in rainstorms. Because of the hundreds of low water crossings I have to cross. That's why I got so scared of going out tonight. The ground is very wet, they forecasted 1-3 inches with 4-6 inches in spots. The weather system in question is still about 70 miles to my west and I missed out on an entire night of delivering. I like delivering food far better than getting to watch a 70 inch snowstorm bury Washington DC.

At least you’re safe! Forecasting is hard from what I’ve learned trying to do it. Someone described it as it’s like guessing where the first bubble will appear in a pot of water on the stove.

5 hours ago, mattie g said:

For sure.

Definitely not the same thing, but it's like how Denver often gets snow. It's 60 and sunny for days on end and then they get dumped on at 15 degrees. 

Then it warms up again very quickly to 60! I think because the air warms coming down the mountain.

The first wooly bear I’ve seen was all black. However, it was dead. Not a good sign. 

Had James Spann as a guest speaker today. Interesting speaker.

On 10/2/2023 at 3:29 AM, Roger Smith said:

I am away from base for a couple of days so table of forecasts may not appear until Oct 4, can somebody in NYC group give BKV and r16 a message re contest deadline? 

I wasn’t even checking the forum, was busy with tests and weekly forecasting contests at school. I appreciate the reminder, but got sick so didn’t feel like making one this month.

7 hours ago, Cobalt said:

Whenever my oceanography professor mentions something related to cold/snow in our area, he prefaces it by saying "if we ever have a winter again". I feel like he'd be a perfect fit in this subforum.

One of my met profs is a complete snow lover. Just makes me like the class more.

DCA: 11/8

IAD: 11/7

BWI: 11/8

RIC: 11/7

BWI Oct Dep: +1.3