Rhino16

2 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Same here. Getting ready for work calling for 3-5, they (NWS) upped it on forecast to 6-10 as I left the house at 7 am. Got home that night (after an hour + drive that normally is 10 minutes) after 8 pm to 20.5"!

Even with that, the winter still sucked. One snowstorm shouldn’t decide if another one follows right? (That was the only noteworthy snow we had in Central VA)

57 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Great December look but I would be curious what the rest of the months show (Nov-March). Not sure the CANSIPS has been updated on Tropical Tidbits though the above matches what TT is now showing.

 

TT appears to be updated, the messed up one would be obvious.

30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Soooo, am I getting on the next recon flight?

Very bold of you to assume there will be another recon flight this year. Looks like you’ll have to wait until next year.

I doubt they’ll fly all the way from the pacific to pick you up, gas prices are crazy expensive! /s

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

lol that was my thought too. “This isn’t a thing that ever happened in the midAtlantic”

It kinda happened this past december, on the 9th-10th storm. The news stations were predicting only an inch or two, but we ended up getting 10+. This is BEFORE CHRISTMAS in Central VA, so of course while you’re trying to tell people, you get the usual “The ground is too warm” reply barked back at you from anyone who doesn’t know too much about WX.

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Screw the hurricanes, give me a few October nor'easters with temps in the 40s and driving rain.

Knowing our luck, that will happen, only in December, January, and February, while leaving October and march either very dry or very hot.

I’ll say it for you:

obligatory yum: yum!

everyone, that isn’t difficult to make, stop calling yourselves bad cooks!(You didn’t, but i know you did... ) A little bit of practice, and you can make burgers (anything really) like that. Add that to the list of things to do while waiting for something interesting to happen tropical-wise, or while waiting for the first flakes.

No! No, no, NO! February is too long to wait. I want it now!

12 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What was your season total?

I’m not them, but my area only had that big December storm which was okay, but the entire rest of winter was boring!

On 8/6/2019 at 2:49 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

Ugh, someone bumped the December 9/10 storm thread. Still can't believe I managed to miss that storm. Always gonna haunt me.

2 months or so until I renew my WeatherBell subscription though. Very exciting. 

Sorry... forgot forums did that...

Can someone tell me what is considered a tropical wave? Is the thing currently coming off the coast of Africa considered a tropical wave?

On 8/4/2019 at 1:21 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey hey!! Why oh why did you bring this back up to the top of the thread again?? As if we weren't tortured enough! Lol

Sorry, forgot forums did that. Happy Holidays!

On 12/10/2018 at 7:21 AM, RevWarReenactor said:

Snow is apparently quite a rarity here. So a near miss storm at any point is very disappointing. It was December 9th last year too. Remember how that turned out?

As far as i remember, we didn’t really get any snow after that one in Richmond, but i believe there was a lot of teasing in the long range which ended up north.

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just finishing brushing the egg off of my face from last season in time to begin parsing through data for the coming season.

Early ENSO thoughts are nothing surprising.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/08/first-look-at-enso-for-winter-2019-2020.html

I’m not sure i get what you mean by getting the egg off your face... like, you’re hatching because last season was bad?

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Know they are rough but I thought Nina's were more like 1 out of 5/1 out of 6 that reached around avg to above avg snowfall around the dc/Baltimore corridor? Majority of them being of the weak nina state.

Our last nina a couple of years ago I think most attained around avg snowfall with some exceptions of course. And if we had had a semblance of a negative Nao it would have been a somewhat notable winter as the coastal scrappers would have been adjusted westward. 

Don't get me wrong though, I would much rather see a neutral to a nino enso every winter. 

As long as it isn’t like this past winter... please no!

3 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

Keep in mind, examination of teleconnection indices / other proxies in a vacuum is much less salutary than collective usage/relative weighting. That is, the solar cycle in and of itself, or the QBO phase in and of itself, is not too beneficial re: prognostication of polar indices. And of course, it's easy to state, "weight the indices/assign percent contribution" but the inherent challenge is correctly weighting them such that the outcome is a veracious forecast [obviously a non-stationary target]. Some variables supersede and take precedence over others, as evidenced most notably by the progression of last winter.

So, I assume it’s pretty difficult to find out which index / indice will have more of an affect over others. Is the most we can do just look at the past, and the (even with questionable accuracy) predicted strength of the future ones?

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s an upper level low. Not expected to do anything in terms of tropical development.

Thank you! That makes sense.

Can anyone explain what’s happening in the gulf West of Florida? It seems like it’s rotating, but it’s probably just something else... let me look some more.

Even though it probably doesn’t mean much this far out, it’s relieving to watch it flip from warmer to colder slowly after each run.

5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Coming soon: NAO- anyone? After being in a positive phase from late november to early march, the NAO has finally turned to negative.

Your comment completely contradicts the tweet from above... did you type that correctly?

10 minutes ago, Zanclidae said:

Let's hope it's HORRIBLE!

That's what most people call a winter that I enjoy.  I do like snow.  Not mixed or pure ZR (although it's pretty) but snow.  Enough to plow the lanes out! 

A combo of 95-96 and 09-10 would be perfect!  Anyone remember that crazy storm in Nov '95?  I was in Towson and it dropped from near 70°F down to mid 30s and Putty Hill Ave was nearly impassible due to slush.  And the derecho like wind gusts 60-70 mph when it blew through.  We've had some crazy wind storms in Nov.  I remember 1989 had a few too.

If it's not going to snow over a foot at least have some decent wind.  Light powder drifts like crazy around here.

It's rare for our area but getting a blizzard warning with the stars shining at night is super awesome!  Could've had that this past Jan with the wind and cold if there was a 10" of fresh powder...

Now, I’m a student, and I want a ton of snow too. On December 9th and 10th of this past winter we had that storm that gave the Central Virginia area around 10” of snow. They had the roads plowed so quickly that it was pretty disappointing we had to be back to class so quickly. I’m hoping for a lot of storms that drop just enough to close for a few days, but not enough for them to feel the need to plow off the side roads.

After that storm though, there wasn’t a single snow storm as far as i can remember... just rain, and may some snow that accumulated north of Central VA.