Rhino16

06Z run:

Is there a specific Euro Ensemble that favors lots of snow? Location: West Central VA

18 hours ago, frd said:

An upper air feature, low pressure disturbance,  that move out of far W/NW Canada going SE ( quickly ) and passes over the province of Manitoba, Canada.

These features can at times drop far enough to our South and Southeast to spawn cyclogenesis. If they drop far enough to our South and the pattern is conducive they can develop into powerful East Coast snowstorms.  Sometimes these storms can even stall or loop as they move NE along the Eastern Seaboard dropping feet of snow.  

This diving system out of Canada shares common characteristics with Alberta clippers and even Saskatchewan Screamers. The name given simply implies the location they pass over.

Great link 

       https://www.9and10news.com/2011/01/03/alberta-clipper-saskatchewan-screamer-manitoba-mauler/

 

Thanks for all the detail!

2 hours ago, frd said:

On a side note, I have heard from several respected mets that this winter will feature a few robust clippers and even Manitoba Maulers.

 

 

 

 

What is a Manitoba Mauler? I think i’ve heard the phrase before, but i cannot remember what it is...

5 hours ago, Winter Wizard said:

Congrats La Plata

Gone... reduced to atoms...

0z GFS for all the night owls in here...

40 minutes ago, MidlothianWX said:

Hope you all have a rockin' winter 

Thanks! Hope to see everyone back here soon!

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Good to see you, friend. Seems like this winter could feature many of the things we’ve seen a lot this decade. -EPO driven cold shots, predominantly +NAO, variable AO, and moisture around. So like most winters this decade, we probably will get a lot of nickels and dimes and maybe if we’re lucky a Susan B. Anthony or two.

No Barber Dimes, Wheaties, Benjamin Franklin and Walking Liberty Halves?

I’m kinda disappointed. We’re kinda going through a gap of less rainfall, and there hasn’t been a wind gust in awhile. If this is a letdown, i’m going to be frusterated.

1 hour ago, Snowchaser said:

Within 240 hours... it’s exciting, but disappointing because it won’t happen. (Maybe if we all say this, it will actually happen, so let’s pretend this isn’t going to happen)

Who else is excited for Daylight Saving time to end so we won’t have to wait forever for a new model run to finish? They will be mostly done by the time I crawl out of bed.

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m genuinely interested in Day 12-13 though. Enough persistence on the ensembles of snow somewhere on the EC for my attention.

It’s interesting how many euro ensembles are starting to give us at least a little taste of snow during that time frame... 12z run ensembleAlso included an image of the CMC which i only included because so far the look reminds me of the December 8-10th storm last year. 

Ending Nov 12, Euro Ensemble 24, would you like ketchup with that hotdog?

Just now, peribonca said:

Well the 12z GFS sure didn't disappoint! DCA would be at or above climo for the whole winter by mid November lol

Reference:

22 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If the 12z EPS is correct, the last week of October will feature EC/WA ridge with high temps of 60 to 70. The previously advertised cold snap has disintegrated.

What was the last run to feature the cold snap? I went back and looked through a few and didn’t see anything that poked out to me.

She’s adorable. Thanks for sharing!

9 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

We are transitioning into the best time of the year.

For some reason, I find the cat staring at the fire funny. How often do they do that?

11 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I think that if there are some potent cold shots early in the season (Oct-Nov) it may signal a variable winter to follow, as is often the case, with roughly equal mild or cold spells in the main winter months. I've said elsewhere that the most likely storm track this winter would be something like OK-TN-MD/sPA-seMA and this would imply a variety of storm types for the Mid Atlantic region. The odds would favour one or perhaps two significant winter storms for your region but the core of above normal snowfalls would be north of that storm track, for the northeast, inland PA, n NJ, most of NY and New England. This is of course just amplifying the normal regional outcome, but within that framework, at least I;m not seeing much chance of a blowtorch or dry winter.

What are some examples (or where may I find some) of that storm track? Just want to see for future reference.

BWI: 10/26

DCA: 11/2

IAD: 11/3

RIC: 11:6

Tiebreaker: 3.5”

3 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

It was a ****ing disaster.

So far, this year looking no better.

There is some early color around.   In this un-ending warmth,  I'm not sure why.

By color, you mean doodoo brown. Upon closer inspection, it just seems to be because, as already mentioned, dryness.

This months CanSIPs is up on TT.

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I am fully aware of, and completely realistic about the snow climo in my yard. Unlike many. 

This doesn't necessarily preclude me from bitching, and ofc I am a bitter man. I give credit to that dude from RVA for identifying that trait. He saw right through my act, when the rest of you were clueless.

Was that the person who was asking why there was a winter thread started in August/September for the Mid-Atlantic?

Also, Don’t worry, first winter will be here soon for RVA, then second summer.

Yeah, the website will load in as I scroll down. Pretty obnoxious, but i’ll live.

Even though it doesn’t mean anything, i find it funny that the GFS has the remnants(?) leave the coast, then they loop back and head for the Carolinas.

3 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Water in the N Atlantic look really good for a -NAO this Winter.. I'd bet it happens. 

Welp... now it isn’t going to happen because you said it.