Rhino16

No one say a thing about whatever that is on the GFS 850mb Vorticity map at 384 hours. I think it’s best we just stay quiet about this, and don’t tell anyone.

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

 The ridging off the west coast is too far west but it should work as long we do see a western based -NAO in place.

What that ridging off the west coast will do is force troughing into the west and a corresponding bump up of heights/ridging in the east.

 

Wasn’t that the issue this past winter, (or maybe the one before?) The ridging was way out, and everyone was sad.

9 hours ago, STxVortex said:

TS Chantal is aliiive...  fairly odd to have formation so far north [40N], but she's supposed to bend south into warmer SST, but more unfavorable atmo layers, at least for a while, then...

Leslie 2: Mid-Atlantic Boogaloo

Every time so far this week, i’ve been in the gap between Norfolk and D.C that gets 0 rain, just some thunder teasing me.

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Just an aside, but when you are quoting a long post such as above you might want to delete all but what is relevant to what you are commenting on. 

Oh... you can do that! 

I don’t care how any model did last year, that winter never never happened.

6 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Just want to preface this with the fact that this is not a prediction/thoughts whatsoever on the upcoming winter it is more so just for curiosity's sake. Climate models can have their issues and we are talking roughly 4+ months for the winter so it is somewhat at range. Not to mention they did have issues with this run to boot. Now it we continue to see this look in the coming months then I will get excited.

Below we have the 3 month 500 mb anoms for Dec-Feb.  This is a great look IMO. A large concentric ball of red (higher heights) centered on the pole with higher height anomalies centered both over Greenland (blocking) and eastern Russia (cross polar plow). This look would be suggestive of a very weak PV probably getting shoved around a good bit (think -AO). Under riding this we see the lower pressure anomalies straddling the mid latitudes (active weather pattern). Now if you look in the CONUS we have strong ridging driving all the way up into the arctic regions which is the vehicle to drive cold air into the central/eastern US. In response to this ridging we are seeing low pressure anomalies set up in the east (troughing). As I said I like this look a lot. What is even more impressive is the duration. We see the building of the heights begin in Sept and only by May do we see them breaking down. We are talking roughly 9 months. This would imply an early start to winter as well as a late ending with little to no breaks in between.

 

Since I have been tracking (96) I can't ever recall seeing heights over the pole during the winter be at such magnitude, so concentric and centered on the pole and for such a long duration as what the CANSIPS is advertising. So I thought I would look into recent previous winters (back to 1981). Below we have some of the winters that featured stronger high latitude blocking. Notice that though some may share a feature or two of the above none are what I would call exactly a good match.

 

 

That brings us to these two years. Below we have 1985-86. This is a good match. Though not as large in scope nor as concentric it does have good heights centered over the pole. The greater anomalies are also setting up over Greenland and nosing into eastern Russia. West coast ridging, east coast troughing. Also see neg anomalies in western Europe which the above Cansips has as well. The one thing it does show that the CANSIPS does not have are indications that we may have been dealing with WAR (Western Atlantic ridging) at times. But over all this is a pretty good match. And for those who are curious, 15.6 inches were recorded in Baltimore and 15.4 in DC that year. Would have expected better myself but have to question whether episodes of WAR played into those totals.

 

 

And then we have 2009-10. Though it doesn't match up as well with the mid-latitude pressure anomalies like the previous example it does match better in the upper latitudes. I am sure I don't have to list snowfall for this year.  

 

And before someone brings up 1996 here it is. As you can see it is more so the strategic placement of the blocking/higher heights in the upper latitudes more then anything else. Not a good match to

what we see with the CANSIP around the pole.

.

 

 

 

Does anyone know how well CANSips has done in the past? Not sure if it matters or not. I wouldn’t be surprised if the next run were to not be as impressive.

On 8/18/2019 at 12:15 AM, AdamHLG said:

Its been a great night drinking at home with friends and about to go to bed but I had a great weather day today. So if you're just browsing this thread here's a random story. It's long winded because I'm a bit drunk.

Went to a friend's house with my wife in Arnold MD near Annapolis and they took us out on their boat. I've been out on the Chesapeake maybe twice in my life and today was the second time. When I left Owings Mills at 11 am it felt like a typical summer day. But when we got to Arnold at noonish it just felt... Uncomfortably humid. Noticeable as in high CAPE humid. I looked at the sky and there was all sun and some cumulus out in the way distance.

I commented before we left on the boat that it felt like.... Instability. Of course the three others said "what?" And I said nevermind. But I felt it in my bones.

We head out at 2 pm. Now the last thing I want to do is be out in a boat with CG lightning. And I feel it in the atmosphere that it's gonna happen but it's an almost clear sky.

30 min later while near the Chesapeake Bay bridge on the boat I see a darkening haze to the north with wide open chesapeake bay visibility. I check my RadarScope app. It's a fairly isolated red and yellow shower... But pretty large surface area. Seems to be stationary. I keep an eye on it.

Over next 10 min it's getting significantly darker to the north. And then I see a cloud finger emerging that gave me pause. I look again and now I see CG strikes on RadarScope and a ST Warning and Marine Warning to the north. Storm is still almost stationary on RadarScope and to my eyes.

I zoom out on app and there is no other storm for 125 miles in any direction. But this storm is a lone wolf in an otherwise wide open chesapeake bay sunny sky. It's beautiful.

Ok so I may not know how to Captain a boat, but I know how to be a storm spotter. This storm is growing. And Captain wants to go get gas but we don't "have to" get gas. We're heading into the now much darker sky and I see the cloud finger more pronounced and think to myself that if today were a tornado day I would know that. But severe storms can spawn rotation right? So 'is it' just a cloud finger..... Or something more? I pull up RadarScope again as my index of suspicion is growing by the minute and now on RadarScope there are lots of CG strikes and now there is purple in the cell. I look up and see a CG strike in the way distance.... The first one we see. A big one. But very far away. It was red. It was surreal.

It was at that moment the storm started it's movement on RadarScope. And it was moving towards us and growing in size. Impressively rapidly. Yep. Time to go in.

We do a 180 and take the 15 min ride to our friends dock. Upon arrival the sky is now deep grey and CG strikes getting closer and loud rumbling beautiful thunder. We button up boat. Head up to house with a deck in perfect view of the approaching storm.

O yeah by now we are under a ST Warning and Marine Warning over our friends house. I am pacing out how long until it's truly too dangerous to stay outside and BAM a very bright flash and LOUD bang of thunder 2 or 3 seconds later. O yeah time to go inside now. 10 minutes later sheets of rain, and numerous CG strikes very close by. And then the hail starts. Pea sized hail and lots of it.

I open RadarScope. It's purple over us. I zoom out. It is one tiny small storm right over us drifting south. What luck I had as a storm lover! For all those near misses to hit a jackpot. Today I was a 1 percenter.

30 min later it's sunny. All done.

And that's it. But here is why it is cool. I felt that CAPE today. I knew something was up. And I was right. And to use my weather skills and skywatching skills to chart that storm and have it actually hit us head on was really lucky... For those of us that love storms.

So I had to share that here cause nobody gets it but you guys.

Thanks for listening.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk
 

No, you really didn’t need to share that with us, you’ve succeeded in making me jealous.

19 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Yeah, ya'll got blanked the rest of the winter basically. I had a few more snows and finished right at 35" for the year, about 8 inches above normal.

It was torture watching the storms slide north or south of us. Glad someone enjoyed it!

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

No x 2.

No? Okay... Sorry!

2 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Same here. Getting ready for work calling for 3-5, they (NWS) upped it on forecast to 6-10 as I left the house at 7 am. Got home that night (after an hour + drive that normally is 10 minutes) after 8 pm to 20.5"!

Even with that, the winter still sucked. One snowstorm shouldn’t decide if another one follows right? (That was the only noteworthy snow we had in Central VA)

57 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Great December look but I would be curious what the rest of the months show (Nov-March). Not sure the CANSIPS has been updated on Tropical Tidbits though the above matches what TT is now showing.

 

TT appears to be updated, the messed up one would be obvious.

30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Soooo, am I getting on the next recon flight?

Very bold of you to assume there will be another recon flight this year. Looks like you’ll have to wait until next year.

I doubt they’ll fly all the way from the pacific to pick you up, gas prices are crazy expensive! /s

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

lol that was my thought too. “This isn’t a thing that ever happened in the midAtlantic”

It kinda happened this past december, on the 9th-10th storm. The news stations were predicting only an inch or two, but we ended up getting 10+. This is BEFORE CHRISTMAS in Central VA, so of course while you’re trying to tell people, you get the usual “The ground is too warm” reply barked back at you from anyone who doesn’t know too much about WX.

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Screw the hurricanes, give me a few October nor'easters with temps in the 40s and driving rain.

Knowing our luck, that will happen, only in December, January, and February, while leaving October and march either very dry or very hot.

I’ll say it for you:

obligatory yum: yum!

everyone, that isn’t difficult to make, stop calling yourselves bad cooks!(You didn’t, but i know you did... ) A little bit of practice, and you can make burgers (anything really) like that. Add that to the list of things to do while waiting for something interesting to happen tropical-wise, or while waiting for the first flakes.

No! No, no, NO! February is too long to wait. I want it now!

12 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What was your season total?

I’m not them, but my area only had that big December storm which was okay, but the entire rest of winter was boring!

On 8/6/2019 at 2:49 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

Ugh, someone bumped the December 9/10 storm thread. Still can't believe I managed to miss that storm. Always gonna haunt me.

2 months or so until I renew my WeatherBell subscription though. Very exciting. 

Sorry... forgot forums did that...

Can someone tell me what is considered a tropical wave? Is the thing currently coming off the coast of Africa considered a tropical wave?

On 8/4/2019 at 1:21 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey hey!! Why oh why did you bring this back up to the top of the thread again?? As if we weren't tortured enough! Lol

Sorry, forgot forums did that. Happy Holidays!

On 12/10/2018 at 7:21 AM, RevWarReenactor said:

Snow is apparently quite a rarity here. So a near miss storm at any point is very disappointing. It was December 9th last year too. Remember how that turned out?

As far as i remember, we didn’t really get any snow after that one in Richmond, but i believe there was a lot of teasing in the long range which ended up north.

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just finishing brushing the egg off of my face from last season in time to begin parsing through data for the coming season.

Early ENSO thoughts are nothing surprising.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/08/first-look-at-enso-for-winter-2019-2020.html

I’m not sure i get what you mean by getting the egg off your face... like, you’re hatching because last season was bad?

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Know they are rough but I thought Nina's were more like 1 out of 5/1 out of 6 that reached around avg to above avg snowfall around the dc/Baltimore corridor? Majority of them being of the weak nina state.

Our last nina a couple of years ago I think most attained around avg snowfall with some exceptions of course. And if we had had a semblance of a negative Nao it would have been a somewhat notable winter as the coastal scrappers would have been adjusted westward. 

Don't get me wrong though, I would much rather see a neutral to a nino enso every winter. 

As long as it isn’t like this past winter... please no!

3 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

Keep in mind, examination of teleconnection indices / other proxies in a vacuum is much less salutary than collective usage/relative weighting. That is, the solar cycle in and of itself, or the QBO phase in and of itself, is not too beneficial re: prognostication of polar indices. And of course, it's easy to state, "weight the indices/assign percent contribution" but the inherent challenge is correctly weighting them such that the outcome is a veracious forecast [obviously a non-stationary target]. Some variables supersede and take precedence over others, as evidenced most notably by the progression of last winter.

So, I assume it’s pretty difficult to find out which index / indice will have more of an affect over others. Is the most we can do just look at the past, and the (even with questionable accuracy) predicted strength of the future ones?

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s an upper level low. Not expected to do anything in terms of tropical development.

Thank you! That makes sense.