Rhino16

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I dont think any of us are saying that. What we may be saying is that nickle and dime snows may very well be a thing of the past. And we either get bombs or we get squat. And that alone is a scary thing to face.

Is that not a typical Niño year around here anyways?

5 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

And RIC is at +3.6.  In fact, yesterday and the day before were +16 and +12, respectively, from their daily average. To put yesterday's +16 into perspective, the last time Richmond had a daily departure of -16 or lower was on Christmas Eve 2022, when the low temperature was 8°F, and the high was only 24°F, which was a -24 departure from average. We don't seem to get those negative departures as often anymore. 

So yes, It's been a warm month, although our part of the CONUS looks to have been spared the worst.

Also, through yesterday, Norfolk had received 6.34" of rain, which makes December 2023 the second wettest December on record. The wettest, December 2009, had 7.57" and appears safe as the latest models only have up to about 0.10 to 0.25" at best through ORF through the end of the year.

 

Also, Norfolk is moving toward its top 10 stretches of days with less than 1 inch of snow. 

 

The 7.57” deserves to stay because that’s too perfect!

4 hours ago, Dendrimer77 said:

Let's go Hokies!! Totally in control owning the Military Bowl...what a rainy slop fest though.

And best met program in the country, but perhaps I’m biased.

23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's an overwhelming Pacific jet that torched Canada for weeks. Our oceans have warmed and once that gets cranking it takes forever for it to wind down and then we waste peak climo rebuilding our source region. I don't see how we ever meet or exceed climo in these parts again unless it's a worthless storm like 2015-2016 where we get one small window and statistically get an average winter.

22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not a SE ridge. Look at the 500 mb panels. A SE ridge is usually that orange blob that comes out of the southeast...but that isn't there now.

Yeah, I guess it lacks the clockwise flow you’d see from a high. People I know are clamoring about February, but I’m not optimistic.

Does that count as SE ridge on the GFS? Or something else causing warmth?

Just so I’m keeping track correctly, SER is short for southeast ridge I’m assuming?

Well, we did it. At about 1.29” for today, we’ve beaten December 2009 and 2023 moves to most rainy december for RIC.

4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

When you’re looking to the NAM for guidance beyond 24 hours you really do deserve what you get. 

Good point, I should have remembered from when I made that mistake earlier this year with something else.

The NAM is very disappointing with the snowfall for the WV mountains. GFS went from something to nothing to something, and Now I feel it will go back to nothing but we’ll see.

With the current rain coming through, and 0.41 fallen since 0.00AM EST, I think we easily reach the most rainy december, beating 2009.

2 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

If you could revise lower right now- would you?

Maybe -4 inches or so, enough that the totals could be achieved in 1 storm only.

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Snowshoe gets 2 ft+

A lot of that is from the stuff on the 29th, which I hope happens, as the Euro doesn’t have it, but I don’t trust the Euro.

Hey, it’s a good day. First the 12z candy, now the 18z has the upslope back before the new year, I’ll take it as long as I see some decent stuff.

1 minute ago, WSWL said:

Lol you just made a fool of yourself thinking I wanted the euro control posted. Hopefully we don’t need to past a sarcasm test to stay here. You won’t make it 

Would’ve been more funny if it was posted in banter, putting it in the long range thread just made it annoying.

Being in the mountains and watching that low shift south is painful. Am hoping for more out of it, but upslope isn’t as easy if it goes south like it’s modeled currently.

Going to have fun today though, models can keep running, and trolls can yell into the void.

16 minutes ago, yoda said:

If the 12z GFS went out another day, would that h5 look be good or bad for us?

I’d say bad, it just looks too far west.

edit: it is one run though, so I’m not concerned!

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

Yeah because if RIC doesn't record at least an inch of snow by January 12th, it'll be a new record. The current longest stretch of days with less than 1 inch occurred from 2/26/1991 to 2/20/1993. 

 

Maybe that means we’ll be waiting for the “big one” on March 13-14…

11 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

The snow mean for the period actually increased from 12Z, @Rhino16.

Hopefully the good looks keep coming!

Looks like some sustained cold coming…? Maybe…? Possibly…?

1 hour ago, katabatic said:

I do well when there is an inversion/decoupling because MLP is in a bit of a bowl relative to the surrounding topography. 

Username checks out?

CLI did say 2.74. This month could beat 2009 if our next rainfall sets up right.

About to cross 1” at RIC. Is that band thing moving east at all or just north? Looks like RIC is just outside of it.

Not doing temperatures because I’m exhausted, and the rainfall is hard enough… my rainfall guesses are:

Sunday: 2.41”

Monday: 0.55

For a total of 2.96.

Maybe for a high end I’d say 3.25” total, but I’d have to revisit tomorrow.

If the GFS is picking up on something with that location, that would be something.

33 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Yeah, the jackpots is definitely is. Places like Blacksburg have really dropped in totals on the models, @Rhino16.

Well I’m back for break, so it will be fun to watch the deluge. Forgot to make numbers thanks to the drive… they will come momentarily.

I’ll make my usual numbers tomorrow. I need the practice so I can keep my skills sharp.