Rhino16

Some of the trees around here have new growth on the ends of the branches. Some trees have buds of some type. Not sure if that’s normal for around here on February 3rd, but okay.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 
 

-1.0 _ -1.5 _ -0.8 __ 0.5 _ -1.2 _ -0.1 __ 0.1 _ -0.2 _ 0.3

Some fat snowflakes are falling while I try to program this climate homework. Cars covered but may as well be wet rain as far as the ground is concerned.

the bands of snow yesterday only managed to put down 0.2" despite the long duration, some impressive bands, and cold temps.

Got to 7° at VT Apt, but probably colder where I am… terrible walk to class.

Roads have now caved with the heavier rates. Didn’t take long.

I went for an hours long walk in the snow, it was great. Roads still winning from what I can tell.

Roads still wet only, we had a snow hole for a bit here, but it resumed.

The snow is light and pavement has melted so it’s not snow covered anymore. Hoping we get similar bands to the stuff south of Roanoke…

Snow started at some point and now it’s falling at decent rate. Asphalt lightly covered patchily.

Really nice to wake up to at 12z. The closer we get, the more I trust the GFS.

Woke up to surprise snow / graupel this morning in bburg. looks like it never happened now but it was nice to see.

7 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Don’t get the reason why people keep posting totals for multiple storms that haven’t even happened yet…

I can understand the overall totals but hell Tuesdays storm is what needs to set up everything first  & really is our best shot for a decent snow that we had around here in years..

There’s only one storm?

26 minutes ago, SoCoWx said:

This is not for the storm coming up in 5 days.

Indeed it is, the run after it is just that empty.

Right where we want it at hour 228 on the GFS. 

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

These are for the entire run. Today's 18Z GEFS was the best GEFS run this winter. If this isn't a snow signal, then I don't know what is. 

You all down here will have higher odds than me when I get back to blacksburg. I guess I’ll have bitter cold.

10 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

For the sake of conversation to snow, I'm afraid I have to disagree with others that we are the south. At least from a historical perspective, RIC's snow climate is more aligned with DCA than RDU.

I really don’t think a 5” difference in the mean is that dramatic of a difference, so I agree.

Just now, JB Fins said:

I dunno, seems we never verify on the cold side like that, now if it showed 70's in January, I would say book it.  

My experience is that it always modifies, if it is forecasting single digits for RVA, it's probably more like mid to upper teens.

The GFS is always super cold 6 days out and I can’t remember if it’s always that potent.

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

I haven't seen the scores, but I think the GFS has been generally good the last couple years.  It hasn't really showed much in the way of any digital blue...which would be accurate.  I actually use the GFS now up until within 24 hrs.  Whether that's the correct way or not, I don't know, but I've seen the NAM miss enough times close to gametime that I find it more useful for showing potential convection than a broad brush of temps/precip.

The GFS does a decent job with rainfall totals. I’ve made some accurate 3 day forecasts with it as a heavy contributor. I’ve been burned quite a few times by the Euro.

1 hour ago, wasnow215 said:

Oh I think it’ll hang around a while! “Vodka cold” through the weekend. Look at 7am Wed!

Is this realistic, or could it be overdoing it a bit?

57 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

I am unsure where that came from, but that is incorrect, assuming it is for Richmond. 

1957-58 was a 20"+ season (20.2") and also 1959-60 (32.2"). It looks like the current stretch of 13 seasons from 2010-11 to 2022-23 ties the record longest with 1996-97 to 2008-09. Should we make it the rest of 2023-24 without reaching 20 inches, it would become a new record of 14 consecutive seasons without reaching 20".

Although not specific to your post, I would also like to point out that the 30-year averages are tallied by calendar year. For example, the 1991-2020 30-year norms, means, and extremes, currently in use by NCEI, runs from 1/1/1991 to 12/31/2020.

Oops, I had that thing sorted by Winter (Dec-Feb), so anything that happened after that probably got omitted! My bad.

Didn’t happen in Richmond, but in Blacksburg probably September 10th. Thunderstorms dropped 4.4” of rain during a football game in a short time. I was not under the heaviest rain so probably got half that amount but the lightning was super active. Super lucky no one got struck, but it was way too close.

The 14 years between the winters of 1947-1948 to 1961-1962 was the longest time without a 20+” snowfall winter. They were surprisingly common!

This year will be the 14th year since the 2009-10 winter… 

Edit: this is incorrect as it only considers dec-feb, see RIC AIRPORT’s correct info below

11 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

EPS was great, too for early next week. This is only thru the 18th. 

Looks better! Hopefully at least something happens.

I’m so glad school is throwing the GIS stuff at me because it can sometimes be fun, but it’s also useful in case meteorology doesn’t work out. (But it will.)