NorthHillsWx

90L is actually looking a little better this morning inland and actually has a little better model support as it moves back offshore

Picked up 0.14” early this morning. MTD 6.54” Edit: some ridiculous radar estimates from near Dunn and Princeton last night. 6-7.5” and a continuing aerial flood warning. Wow

Currently 89.4. Made it to 92.1 before some clouds moved in. Sultry dew point of 75.2 is leading to a miserable heat index of 99.9. Where this 60% chance of rain coming from? I see nothing remotely close to triangle area. Another week without rain if we miss out tonight. Just very fortunate our rains we have had have been substantial bc they haven’t been consistent at all

Since Monday, this weeks weather can be summed up as: partly cloudy, highs 85-90 lows 68-73. Rainfall: 0.00”

I had covid back in first half of last year but had no symptoms besides lack of energy and lack of taste but I got the Pfizer shot in may and it was pretty bad for me. No sleep for 2 nights, body aches, and absolutely no energy. This was all after the second shot. However, after about 36 hours, it all went away quickly. My wife did not get covid and had very few symptoms with either of her shots. I have heard it’s worse for some reason if you’ve already had it before getting the vaccine? Not sure the science there, but glad ya got it! Sure am glad I did with the delta variant entrenched

BORING WEATHER SUCKS

0.60” looks to be our daily total. 6.40” for the month now

Much more tame here in Raleigh. 0.23” overnight and this morning for a total of 0.30” since yesterday. This does bring our monthly total to 6.03” so this is the second straight month of at least 6” here

Pretty pathetic 0.07” today. We stayed in the rain hole all day. 5.80” for the month

Raleigh’s rain chances have been dropped to 40% (from 80%) for today and to 60% (from 80%) for tonight and Monday. Tuesday is now 50% (was 60%). You get the picture…

Felicia’s days are numbered, but it definitely defied modeling and dry air with light shear, annular hurricanes are amazing specimens. They are almost completely self sustaining when shear remains light, even completely wrapped by a dry environment. Would have LOVED to see some radar images from this storm

Just an incredibly impressive storm. Perfectly symmetrical 120 kt storm still this morning

Well, we were shutout. 0.02” for the week

Felicia has become a beautiful annular hurricane.

I was shutout yesterday, the Franklin county farm, meanwhile, was not. 3.11” and nearing 8” on the month

A couple 3.5” lollipops in there around Greensboro, again. Some areas in guilford are getting slammed this week, all with 20-30% rain pops

Felicia has gone beast mode this morning

One thing about summertime storm patterns, and something you noted recently, is even when regional droughts or dry periods subside, rarely without a widespread rain (usually a tropical system) are all areas equal within that region. So localized droughts can develop and persist while regionally it appears to be getting better. Last year my farm in Franklin county was in one of those holes. We had a 7 week stretch where my farm picked up 0.27” of rain total. We lost most of our soybean crop and our tobacco was severely stunted. This while areas such as rolesville and spring hope (both within 10 minutes) seemed to get thunderstorms every day. Even the airport which is about a mile from my observing site had a couple inches of rain, mostly from two storms where we caught the edge just to get what we got. I do not recall what the drought monitor looked like but I do remember being frustrated that it was not reflective of my personal location just bc it was so localized. Thankfully this year we’ve had several rainy periods, a tropical system, and have hit the afternoon storm lottery jackpot more than we’ve missed at the farm, so everything looks amazing this year. But just echoing your sentiments about how a localized drought can be frequent this time of year due to the inconsistent distribution of pop up storm and rainfall this time of year

Felicia has undergone quite a spurt of RI since yesterday. A TD to a 75 kt storm in under 24 hours. Looks pretty organized this morning as well, so it seems to be continuing the trend and will possibly become a major. With the track continuing to shift south, it keeps the storm over warmer SST than originally forecast. One thing noted in this mornings discussion will be the dry air surrounding the system later in the forecast period. While this can certainly cause weakening, looking at the HWRF model, the storm takes on an annular appearance later on. With low shear, this is certainly possible especially if the storm continues to strengthen in the short term. Fairly common in the E Pac too

Well, you’re not alone. It’s rained 3 days in a row here all for 15+ min (currently raining and has been for an hour) and our grand total after 3 days is 0.02”… Now we are sitting at 5.73” for the month so I can’t complain. Definitely sucks when you love interesting weather and it seems to skirt you in every possible manner multiple days in a row

Based on your home location from that image, I’d say you’re about to get hit pretty good

Definitely better coverage than I was expecting in western areas

Haha it just about spilt our homes perfectly. We got 0.01” from the eastern side but it was a downpour on six forks, or about a quarter mile from my house

We’ll, we almost hit it. Got skirted to the point you could hear the rain. Also a ton of thunder. Did rain for about 15 minutes but was only able to barely dampen the road. Not measurable, just a TR. Temp did drop from a high of 90.8 to 79.3

The afternoon wake county storm lottery has begun! Will @Avdave @eyewall or @NorthHillsWx cash in or will we all get blanked? Nobody knows