NorthHillsWx

GEFS was much more suppressed/wintry in the Carolina’s, FYI.

The low level CAA is strong with this one

It was colder at the surface. Ice all the way to the coast. I’d have to think there was a lot of sleet showing as freezing rain.

It’s a late bloomer but it’s better than 12z I guess. Definitely more amped along the coast

GFS looks unchanged at H5. Likely to be warm again

It’s hard to take it seriously here. It moved the low from cape fear to Mexico beach in one run

And every year. It is a totally different solution than 12z. Wouldn’t live or die by what it says but having it look more like other models today isn’t a bad thing

It looked to be phasing as the run ended. Very close. I’m not so sure it wasn’t about to go apeshit in a couple frames

ICON was a mixed bag for central NC but much better than 12z. Looked like it was getting its act together at the end of the run

Icon looks like it’s starting a little colder

A 1” mean with a coastal is insane at day 5

My .02 is that given model agreement for days now on a significant storm of some type for the area (and likely a high impact one for areas that get below freezing), and we’re only 5 days out, this probably deserves a thread since it’s hijacked any chance of discussion about the upcoming pattern, which honestly looks like we might get another chance before March.

Monster storm up the coast. This would be a blockbuster storm for the east coast as a whole

Euro is over 24 hours straight of nonstop freezing rain and temps in the 20s for here… that would be catastrophic being our trees haven’t been tested by ice in 20 years

Euro is colder but not upstairs…

I’m in a win win. If it snows in Raleigh it’ll be great, but since I’m going skiing in Virginia on Thursday afternoon, at a minimum we’ll have great conditions and likely some snow to play in around the house with the kids

It insists on a central/eastern NC snowstorm. On an island but it has been consistent lol

The rollercoaster continues. Tracking in the SE is not for the weak

Canadian gonna be much warmer

GFS was a strung out mess. It misses the NS energy.

Now, lol

ICON brings the storm in early Wednesday morning. It’s 10 hours ahead of the Euro. There’s your difference. If it slows down, we’re in the winter weather

Perfect track rainstorm lol

It sounds counter intuitive from what we’ve become used to but with a prime cold air source north of this, we need it to start deepening earlier to be able to more efficiently work that air into the system at mid levels. Amped, assuming it doesn’t cut up the coast, might be better here. With the extreme -AO, this might have less chance of cutting even as an amped system. I don’t think BL temps will be an issue especially if this slows down but the mid levels are torched on most modeling except the ones showing it bombing off the Carolina coast. That’s definitely a trend at this point

This is setting up like a classic major winter storm. Been a long time coming. The cold air this has to work with is significantly better than we’re used to with a lot of miller As so, freezing rain might be a bigger issue than normal. From experience though, that freezing rain area will shrink and sleet will become more of a factor. Also if this thing forms a deformation band, they frequently cool the column through rates and you end up with heavy snow in areas progged as a mix a few days out. Lots of words to say: im not buying a massive ice storm in the Carolinas if this is a coastal bomb. Lots to iron out but it is now looking likely (>70%) that central/western NC and most of Virginia will have a significant winter storm. Track will be key as always. We want a slower system still.