NorthHillsWx

I still have my NOAA weather radio with extendable antenna. One of my favorite parts of the summer was waiting for the new tropical updates, while going through the entire area forecasts and marine forecasts, to get coordinates to track storms. Didn’t have tacks but did have a dry erase map of the Atlantic basin and paper maps I drew on. Would love to find my maps from the 1996 season

Yes, Michael and Laura were total works of crap. I only respect dorians rolling straight into New Orleans with 35 foot surges and *recorded* gusts exceeding 200 mph with ground scarring as evidence and automobiles wrapped around trees with the tailgate touching the bumper, because anything less is more indicative of a cat 1

This storm’s banter thread makes it a category or 3 higher in terms of human impact

Finished with 0.45” for the day

Had a shower about the width of my yard sitting over the house for last 20 minutes dumping rain. Not raining down the street but I bet we get a quarter of an inch

0.09” 24 hour total. Muggy as can be

Hits a brick wall

The crazy thing about that run, well besides 3 hurricanes lined up in a row, is it doesn’t landfall any of them haha

Idk it looked pretty robust coming ashore... Saw a 61 mph sustained wind report noted in the advisory. Being the system was tiny the chance of that being in the strongest winds seems very remote

NHC earning their pay this season. Every one of their forecasts defied the models up until the very end for Nana. They’ve been incredible this season

Hurricane Nana

Yep, shear is going to win on this one. Levi’s discussion last night about the northerly shear imparted on the system by the ULL was spot on. Center has become exposed.

In the discussion it says the system is expected to become a hurricane though the time interval this will happen is not shown

Picked up right at 4.00” yesterday. Though humid, was nice today with low stratus cloud cover hanging on past noon. Currently 81 with a pretty sunset on the way

Nice blowup of convection over the COC. Let’s see what happens with it. Still some E, NE shear present. Rapid motion isn’t helping either but system still looks well positioned for strengthening

3 US hurricane landfalls (all strengthening on approach), one of the strongest storms to ever hit the US, and being on the “N” storm by September 1st sure doesn’t feel like a season bust!!!

The fact they found 60kt FL winds is amazing. Can’t think of a season where the global shave faired worse than this year

Small core of this system + improving shear conditions until landfall could lead to a quick intensification. These smaller systems can give us some surprises! I like that NHC went above the guidance with the intensity forecast. After seeing what recon found (tight core, high FL wind) this seems like one with the potential to ramp up quickly. I think we’ll be looking at a strong C1 by landfall

I’m anxiously watching to see what they find. This is a beautiful satellite appearance to not have a closed center. Has expanding outflow and persistent deep convection where you’d think the center should be

3.19” for the day and still coming down. Over 2.50” last 2 hours

99L looks healthy tonight.

Could see 2 more named storms in the next 12-24 hours. 99L has some potential to make a run at becoming a hurricane. 90 will be a wave producer on the east coast. Both look robust at the moment for invests. Hopefully 99L continues its rapid pace of movement to decrease strengthening and also flooding issues where it makes landfall in Central America

Hot towers going up over the center. First time this system has looked like a TD. Let’s see if it can continue the organizational trend.

I think the potential for both of these systems to be much ado about nothing has increased markedly in last 24 hours 1) Laura- IF the system had organized and developed stacked vortices, it would have gone north of the islands. It did not and got whipped westward with the trade winds. It, still resembling garbage, has been named but it has guaranteed itself significant land interaction with possibly every major landmass in the Caribbean. This system had potential entirely based on it staying north of the islands and interacting with an upper level snticyclone with potential for optimal outflow and light shear an a few days in the vicinity of the southern Bahamas. Given that did not happen, this system is doa until *possibly* entering the gulf if it can keep somewhat of a circulation it can build off of once it leaves interaction with Cuba. 2) TD 14- this system is a prime example that it takes prior organization to exploit favorable environmental conditions. If this had been an organized TC in its current location, it would be strengthening on approach to the Yucatán, possibly significantly. It, however, is using its time over water just to organize into TC. Unfortunately for the system, it’s time over water will be cut short so the bar for strengthening is lower. After LF in the Yucatán, it will once again depend on the storms structure for how quickly and how much strengthening can occur. Though I believe the models to be overdone on the amount of shear, there will still be considerable SW shear, continental dry air, and possible negative interaction with whatever remains of Laura. This system will not look like a classic cyclone on approach to the gulf coast and interaction with the trough and shear will probably make this a comma system. We’ve seen these Max out as low category hurricanes but that’s it. Simply put, the bar is not high for this one either. Im not ruling out the possibility one or both of these systems reach hurricane status (I think TD 14 has best chance) and a lot can change, but I do not think either storm has a high ceiling given the above factors. Laura’s Achilles heel being lack of organization at present and then land battles and TD 14’s being Yucatán and then a hostile gulf on approach to the US. I don’t see anyway either makes a run at a significant hurricane now and I think most guidance has performed fairly well with keeping these systems in check for a reason.

Props to NHC for forecasting and not Just model watching. This system had very little model support when NHC gave it the cherry