NorthHillsWx

These setups are where mesoscale models shine

900-925mb area is definitely colder than the last event further into SW va and W N.C. Not only for sleet, but this region is important for freezing rain and getting the “super cooled” droplets there produce less runoff and more ice accrual. I would say the favored CAD regions may actually be in line for a deeper wedge this go round. That’s also reflected in the sub freezing surface air bleeding much further south into the upstate. This past storm was a marginal setup that was able to produce damaging ice totals through duration and light precip

A torch and a dry period to get a head start on yard work. My yard is in the worst condition since I’ve owned this house. Watching the weather channel and Monroe, La has had 2 4”+ events since January and it’s currently snowing and 17 degrees. Ugh. This was the real deal arctic blast and just missed us.

We’re going to do a “storm total” obs since it’s been nonstop since Thursday afternoon. Total rainfall in the period has totaled 3.82” Since the wedge set in Thursday night our max temp has been 37.8 yesterday afternoon. It’s currently 37.4. The minimum temp was Saturday morning of 31.6 degrees. Im sure we had a glaze of ice at some point but I never saw it

Crazy to think it’s been 4 days locked in the 30’s with precipitation each day but not a single flake. For the Wednesday/Thursday event, it looks like the same areas will get hit. Retreating HPs mean areas outside the absolute max CAD regions will quickly go to rain. Also, just like last event, 32 does not mean efficient freezing rain especially with the gigantic and deep warm nose above the ground. I agree another significant ice storm looks likely and it may very well have the same footprint as last time. Never forecast against climo for marginal ice events. I’ll speak for myself and the rest of us in the Triangle who have seen more 33 degrees and rain in the last week than anyone would like to see in a lifetime: please kick this pattern please

Yep, this.

Currently 33.4. Got down to 31.6 last night but I see no remaining glaze. Bring on spring, three days of mid 30’s and rain while the gulf coast is under winter storm warnings is enough to break even the hardiest of weather weenies

Icy but not on roads. Confined to trees mostly

The Raleigh special: 33 and light rain

Winter weather advisory from triangle north and west. Sounds like they’re expecting highs to remain below freezing today and stay that way through a good portion of tomorrow for Va border counties.

18z GFS for 12z Tuesday

Most insane temp gradient I’ve seen in N.C. Mid 20’s at Kerr lake and 60’s wake county

18z gfs keeps Tuesday in play. Watch the NAM when it gets in range. It’s close

18z gfs is, uh, just a little south

Heavy thunder claps in north hills at home. Downpour. Got my rain gauge working just in time for the flood

Guilty

GFS run has cancelled winter. Some might see some light ice over next couple days but we go into a spring pattern beyond that. Once what’s left of this artic air in the MW gets ejected it looks very spring like here later on.

Coldest arctic air in YEARS in the lower 48, active southern jet, near constant systems/impulses, below average temps most of winter, and we rain.

06z GFS considerably colder than 00z with the Tuesday system. Has HP slightly stronger and further south and maintains a wedge look through the system. Verbatim freezing line stays on va border instead of shooting north in other runs

Pennsylvania

If anyone fails to understand the frustration on the board, the current gfs has Memphis at -4 and Raleigh at 60 Tuesday morning

This gfs run doesn’t get Raleigh below freezing through the next 7 days

Yea, that HP has trended weaker from the mid 1040’s from a couple days ago. Also, the arctic air orientation continues to bury it due south into the southern plains, so any high to the north of us is working with table scraps to send our way. I’m sure the CAD is underdone but the setup is fading for us to stand a chance against these more amped solutions. I think the slp track on this run was more reasonable than the euro but, yea, we don’t have much to work with on the cold air front

This GFS run is not going to be what we wanted. Everything’s evolving further west

@ILMRoss awesome post! Thanks for the insight!