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NorthHillsWx

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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx

  1. This gfs run doesn’t get Raleigh below freezing through the next 7 days
  2. Yea, that HP has trended weaker from the mid 1040’s from a couple days ago. Also, the arctic air orientation continues to bury it due south into the southern plains, so any high to the north of us is working with table scraps to send our way. I’m sure the CAD is underdone but the setup is fading for us to stand a chance against these more amped solutions. I think the slp track on this run was more reasonable than the euro but, yea, we don’t have much to work with on the cold air front
  3. This GFS run is not going to be what we wanted. Everything’s evolving further west
  4. @ILMRoss awesome post! Thanks for the insight!
  5. I was just hoping for some interesting weather we don’t get frequently. People here hate on ice storms but I haven’t seen one in twenty years so it’s definitely a unique and rare event. Feels like it might be another 20 years at this rate...
  6. Fat lady has stepped on the stage and is warming up her vocals
  7. Forecasting in areas that aren’t sandwiched between mountains on one side and the ocean on the other must be nice...
  8. People love getting their power knocked out by storms and hurricanes yet don’t want it knocked out by an ice storm...
  9. It does for a Miller B coastal... but waits to do it till it’s off the NJ/NY coast
  10. If I had to make a forecast for this event that’s exactly what I would do for this: trust climo. Seems to fit well averaging all model solutions as well
  11. Slightly colder for CAD regions on the Tuesday system.
  12. Toss the CMC there too for major winter storms
  13. Per that run this is falling into mid-upper 20’s in central N.C. Some sleet may be in play but those are the temps you need to maximize accrual and have these maps come even close to verifying. Takeaway is winter storm options are on the table
  14. Canadian is a heck of a storm on Tuesday. It digs a much stronger slp closer to the mouth of the bay and raises heights over the NE. I am guessing these three factors allow more efficient cold air transport into the region? But yea, that’s a serious winter storm
  15. Love the eternal optimism of some. I respect that.
  16. GFS doesn’t get me below freezing until NEXT Friday night. Good grief
  17. She’s red hot right now baby! The 12z dumpster fires are burning
  18. Someone needs to print out and frame this morning’s discussion from RAH. It’s pure gold
  19. I hung in there a little longer than than I should have, but was just wasting my time. Till next year
  20. I’m throwing in the towel ladies and gents. I’m sure we’ll see a light glaze of ice in Raleigh from one of these impulses but I don’t see a warning level event IE something worth my time and effort to track happening. Time to live in whining thread
  21. It barely advances the freezing line past the Virginia border counties and does so as precipitation moves out. It was well north and had less precip. Storm is still there but not an ice storm for the Carolinas as had been depicted on the earlier 12z run
  22. GFS says enjoy 33-35 and rain, repeat, repeat, repeat for the triangle
  23. It almost looks like the NAM, but for later in the weekend, not Thursday night
  24. ICON is considerably warmer than 12z with considerably less precip. Does not have the weekend ice storm
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