NorthHillsWx

Ready for the ccoldown! A warmer than expected 91 imby! Per ususal

Looks like we have a TD on the Texas coast, per Houston radar. Not much time till it moves ashore which is pretty lucky as it is organizing rather quickly. If it was slightly further offshore I'd say a 2007 Humberto-like system could be in the cards, very similar organization and location

I'm surprised we're even that close to average in central NC. We did receive 1.5" from the hurricane but that feels like a century ago. Coupled with the high heat, we're in mid-summer form in terms of the yard browning out

One word sums up the upcoming and recent weather pattern quite nicely: Dry

Rode the storm out in Morehead City. Gusts peaked between 4:30-6:00 this morning. Guessing gusts in the 80-90 mph range. Lots of branches and leaves down. Lots of transformers exploding and arcing. Got that jet noise you only get over hurricane force. Genuinely doubted we’d see hurricane force winds as the lead up was so tame but we definitely had a period when sustained had to have reached that level. No clue on rain but I’d guess it’s have to be around 5 in. North eyewall was surprisingly weak. Western side brought the goods, well what was left of them anyway. Most areas do not have power. Damage very minimal and no water rise. Very thankful this thing lost the fury it had down south. We didn’t need another big hit. Oh yea, my neighborhood kept power!

We don't have AC so power isn't really an issue. Got several YETI's I can fill with ice. I'm pretty much directly across from the bridge to Manteo so getting off the island shouldn't be an issue. Wasn't planning to leave until Sunday anyway. Even with Isabel this spot was not hit hardm outside the main beach road. We own the lot behind us and can park cars there assuming any overwash makes it under this house, which would require a 6-8 foot surge and I don't see that from a storm coming from the SW instead of the east. I think southern beaches and Hatteras have much more impact.

A common subject on the main thread has been model performance but I do not think they have performed as poorly as some on the rhetoric emanating from there. Storms rounding a ridge are notoriously difficult to predict where the northward turn begins. The new GFS, in particular, was one of the first to identify a slowdown and turn before the mainland. I commented on the thread Friday that this was noticeable, despite most of the operational means still showing a track well into Florida. Once most of the models on Friday showed a stall and a turn North, details are everything but well within what I would consider the 3-day margin for error. it just mattered more because of the implications of where the turn happened. If this was in the middle of the Atlantic, no one would notice. But being the difference in 80-100 miles meant a monster storm sitting over Florida or sitting in the Bahamas this was extremely seen as poor model performance. I disagree. From Thursday night through now (Tuesday) I do not think they missed by much at all. However the margin of error was so thin and consequences at the coast so dire that it amplifies any model errors. Just my .02!

I've been disconnected for a few days here in Nags Head (got engaged!) really trying not to think about this storm messing up the second half of our vacation but we were placed under a mandatory evacuation for non-residents yesterday. Being my family owns a home, it does not pertain to us. To me this looks like the prototypical NC cutter storm. A sloppy hurricane feeling continental dry air and westerly shear being pushed ots. You can see the models all make this an extremely lopsided "half-a-cane" by the time it gets here Interacting with the trough it has a heavy rain band on it's NW side and very little activity on the south and east side. This is what I expect the storm to evolve into once it gets ejected into that NE trajectory. Key Questions Though: 1) How much wind energy will be retained? If I was a betting man I would say this would be an 80-90 mph storm by the time it gets here. It's former state has zero bearing up this far as it will be in an entirely different set of atmospheric conditions (and it is already rapidly weakening) 2) How much rain will be generated inland? If that NW band develops I'd expect some 10 inch amounts. Flash flooding becomes a main issue 3) Will it make LF and does it matter? A lopsided system spreading out wind energy with the north and west sides being strongest will not need a proper LF to see the main impacts. 4) How long will impacts last? Storm really looks to be honking by the time it gets here. This may be a quick 12 hour event with a 2 hour heavy blow. 5) The money question: Should we leave? Saturday and Sunday after the storm look wonderful. My house is on the water but has weathered far worse impacts (Isabel being the worst) and this does not appear to have the same bite. I am having a tough time leaving tomorrow thinking about getting so see some nice winds and having a beautiful weekend with the beach to ourselves after the blow. Thoughts?

Purely speculation but this storm feels like a Matthew track to me. I've been saying that since the first member started advertising the northward bend yesterday morning. If it slows down, it is going north. That's just what these things do. And I'm supposed to be in Nags Head all week so I KNOW its coming north haha

I said this earlier. If it slows down, it gives more time for it to find a weakness in the ridge. That is exactly what changed overnight. It slowed down a good 18+ hours. Where the western periphery of the ridge sets up is absolutely critical. Also, a slow system + frictional effects with land can end up delaying LF further north as well. We certainly saw this with Matthew. It's only 75-100 miles inland at most on these runs now whereas yesterday many had it going into the gulf. The only good thing about this track is storms that slow and linger on approach to the east coast tend to ingest dry continental air and weaken before LF. It this thing slows to a crawl I would doubt it will come in at peak intensity, especially if it comes north. Obviously that's a sidenote as we saw what Florence (and Matthew) did as a modest 1.

Right in Michael's impact zone. Thankfully this is a week out and will likely change. A strong ridge north of the storm would certainly push him into the gulf.

Very impressive ridging.

This is really ramping up into a scary situation for the Southeast, again. Dorian was able to avoid all major landmasses, go north of the most hostile shear, develop a core, and now appears to be entering an area of very favorable upper level outflow aided by good divergence from the ULL to the west. Rather than a small system completely re-building its core (track a few days ago) Dorian now has jet fuel to work with and a blocking high that seems intent on sending him into the Southeast somewhere. I think this is the moral of the story today. We are staring at a significant hurricane impact for the southeast. Models seem to be zeroing in on Central/North Florida but I would say anyone up to Hatteras is still in play. Upper air data input into models will start to tell the full tail on that front.

Blustery in St. Thomas! https://www.earthcam.com/world/virginislands/stthomas/?cam=stthomas

Yep. Slower = LF further north. Faster = freight train running into FL scenario. Still looks like steering collapses after LF and this thing sits somewhere for a good while and dumps rain. That threat certainly might need to be emphasized in the coming days if these trends continue

Frances and Jeanne say Hi!

Last Satellite shot is foreboding for strengthening. He finally has that "look" and with the recent blowup right on the center, I wouldn't be surprised to see a period of at least steady strengthening. This is the first real "core" we've seen with Dorian.

Not liking the models this morning. Usually a "hint" of a northward move turns into a trend. Someone said it great earlier and I think using Matthew as an analogue is fairly accurate. It all depends on the western extent of the Bermuda High. Forecasting where a storm will round that is one of the most difficult things in tropical forecasting. If this storm slows down it may allow time for the ridge to weaken, then the Matthew-like scenario plays out. I strong ridge sending a hurricane hurdling straight into the Florida coast, like seems to be the consensus on the main board, is certainly a possibility, but the modeling this morning has opened another pathway. A HP with some of the height rises the Euro is showing is certainly impressive and does bring back a setup similar to that of Hugo. Look at the globals for this morning compared to 18z last night and you will see 2 camps setting up... Also, I am on vacation in Nags Head next week so I'm sure it will come to NC... Also, at Duke, we are on storm activation as we have territory pretty much in every place this storm is taking aim at, so I may not have vacation regardless of track!

Got up to 82 before clouds moved in. Currently 78, cloudy with a steady NE breeze. Unreal stretch of weather!

Spent the weekend with the in-laws and they were convinced a hurricane was approaching NC. I think there is doom-casting (the tweet above) and then also just pure lack of knowledge among many people who do not follow the weather like we do. If they hear about a storm and hear the mention of their state, some people don't listen or just assume it's coming. With the rash of destructive storms the last few years, this may be a side effect. Every storm that forms, people ASSUME the worst now. A cat 1 slamming into Hispanola with plenty of dry and and shear before that is not means to get me overly concerned AT THIS POINT (for SE US impact). As with any tropical system, it needs to be heeded, but anyone predicting any sort of impact at this point is simply spewing. On Dorian- first of all, he is looking progressively better as of this morning. On Water Vapor, the dry air remains apparent, but it seems he has established a CDO and decent outflow, something with the bursts of convection we had not seen to this point. Given his small size, we know that RI is not out of the question. However, here is what I see: 1) small storm very susceptible to intensity swings 2) Good outflow but shear is certainly not too far to the N and W and very much in the forecast path (see above concerningsize) 3) Opportunity for a brief spinup quickly followed by weakening. Very real possibility we see this thing shoot up to a hurricane but weaken markedly before making it to the islands (if this thing gets sheared apart, it will likely drift west south of the islands in the easterlies and never reach there, as we've seen before) 4) IF and I mean IF this does ramp up to a hurricane, very good chance it is a shell of itself post-land interaction. Even if hit hit as a cat 3 (VERY unlikely) due to its small size, it would likely be a depression (Meaning LF intensity doesn't matter as much as if this was a large storm with broader circulation IE more resilient to a LF or interaction) upon entry to the Atlantic Side 5) We have seen time and time again post land interaction these type of storms struggle to get re-organized. Also, though the shear in that area is light at the moment, there is a TON of time for that forecast to change. Everything considered, this is a VERY challenging forecast due to small size, dry air, very sharp pockets of shear, degree of land interaction, and environment post-Hispanola. Certainly bears watching but I would not sound the alarm for any threat to the US east coast at this point. I think, as always, the flooding and impact to Hispanola and Puerto Rico (especially post-Maria) needs to be the main news story. Any storm of any intensity causes destruction to these areas and can cause loss of life. Much to come in the coming days.

Well the tropics certainly came alive in the last few days! Chantal, weakening depression, a home-grown TS looking likely off the SE coast, potential hurricane (99L) in MDR, and a successive wave train coming off the African coast. Get your popcorn ready.

I hear ya! I had been in the same boat for awhile until yesterday saw one storm blow up right over my house and sit, dropping an inch of much, much needed rain, 30-35 mph gusts, and close ctg lightning. Had a good storm a week ago but not as much rain. Can't wait for the, gasp, 70's tomorrow! Hope to see a blossoming radar shortly and maybe a cool, light, drizzly rain type of day tomorrow

I haven't been enthused with this setup nearly as much as I was yesterday's. I thought the forecast yesterday way underdid the effect of heating and the MCAPE values were high. Same today but the forcing associated with the front arrives late and very rarely this time of year do nighttime storms reach severe limits, unless you get an MLS situation which this is not. Though dynamics appear most favorable in SE VA and NE NC and this lines up with high CAPE values in prime heating hours and highest shear values in this area as well, I expect a line of storms to progress from NW-SE through midnight. Isolated wind damage for sure but I doubt we see much outside the highlighted areas. That might be what the 3K nam is seeing in its latest run, the line falls apart once peak heating hours wane (though did you see the 6z? That had a significant line. I took that with a grain of salt given other modelling). Should be some good rains. We got an inch yesterday from the storms that developed after that awesome gravity wave cloud (I think that's what it was) moved through.

I'm surprised no one mentioned the severe weather from Monday. Drove through the Southwestern side of Raleigh (Centennial Campus Area) and there was a good amount of tree damage (Leaves, branches, and full trees blown down). Seemed like there were several storms of this magnitude around that afternoon so I'd expect similar damage. We had nearly 20k outages that afternoon too and many of our crews worked into the night to get power back on.

77 atm. Low cloud cover and it honestly doesn't feel nearly as miserable as last few mornings, oddly, even though DP is still up. That low feature really fell apart moving into NC yesterday. Very little rain in the Raleigh area though some showers worked in west of here, much less convection that NWS was advertising yesterday morning. Models never really brought much rain into here with that feature, so I was surprised they held onto the 50% + chances for so long yesterday. Funny after the active pattern Monday with much greater coverage and storm intensity and only a 20% rain chance!