NorthHillsWx

Wind has switched to north and temp has fallen to 69.8 (from 72 earlier this morning). The front is through here. Thank God! Finished with 0.80” yesterday (0.17”) and today (0.63”) for a monthly total of 1.51”

Pretty good predawn rains here and elsewhere this morning. Area from Garner to Goldsboro has been getting clobbered! We’ve missed the heaviest rains but have over an 0.60” between yesterday and this morning and it’s now our 4th day in a row with >.20” so I cannot complain

He/she may be looking at the upset pick of the year, for August at least.

EPS is absurdly quiet for mid-late august. There’s no denying that

0.26” from a feisty storm this afternoon. 0.70” total from last 2 days and 0.87” MTD. High of 94 before the storms cooled us back to 78. Currently a sultry humid evening and 80 degrees with thunder rumbling in the distance. Love these summer evenings

Though I fully agree, the fact that many preseason forecasts called for 20+ storms is why many had that expectation this year. There will assuredly be impactful systems but some of the hype going into this season was more than normal from a numbers perspective, right or wrong. Also- we don’t even have the named swirls to debate this year. It’s just been dead

The fact a 0-0-0 August is even still on the table 10 days into the month with no sign of change is absolutely shocking from what the preseason prognostics seemed to indicate for this season. While I’m sure we will get a named system and possibly a few (it’s long range models folks, they suck) this does not have the look or feel of the hyperactive season that many forecasts indicated. I think that’s officially off the table. An active season is still in reach but the clock is ticking. If we burn through august without a hurricane (unlikely) then September and October are going to have to be nuts, not just above average, and there’s nothing concrete that supports that

Had a surprise cell blow up over the house and drop 0.44” this afternoon

I do not see anything that is changing in the Atlantic over the next 10 days that points to a switch flipping. Rinse, wash, repeat. Waves of anomalous SAL and any disturbances getting dried up, just like the current one. I seriously doubt this makes it through the month, but that is purely based on climatology and the thought that something has to change. There is no hard evidence that a change to active is coming any time soon.

I think the downward revisions by these major seasonal forecast outlets is telling, and I will also say that we have lowered the bar immensely from coming into the 2022 season. The dire predictions of a hyperactive season cannot be forgotten. Now with the start date looking pushed back past mid August, it looks almost impossible to get a season with that many storms. Sure, it likely will end up at least average to above average, but forecasting a hyperactive season and getting an average season is a major bust imo from some of the leading seasonal forecasters. That being said, hurricane season is not dead. August can and likely will turn on. September is and always will be the peak month. And we all know it only takes one storm to hit the right area and it’s a memorable season. But numbers wise, 18 storms seems like a stretch at this point given where we’re at and the continued hostile look for the next 10 days. GaWx’s discussion above is spot on, imo

Brutal summer for us as a whole. Going to remember this one. Lack of interesting tropical weather has made it all the worse.

Morning GFS: EPAC = weenie run Entire Atlantic/Caribbean/GOM = better luck next August long range and just one model but man I can’t remember the goofus being so dead in long range all season to this point. SAL just dominates.

Picked up just 0.05” yesterday which brought my monthly total to 7.61”.

What a bust for rainfall this weekend. We went from an 80% chance of rain today (yesterday mornings forecast) to no rain in the forecast and sunny. Tomorrow still showing 60-70% chances but NOTHING like the rainfall we were thinking over the last 5 days. Thankfully we’re at over 7.5” for the month here so it’s not that bad but what a forecast bust from just 24 hours out

It’s truly tough to envision the Atlantic as a whole being drier than it is this morning.

Confirmed, it hit the tree in my neighbors backyard. Big oak tree, blew the bark off all the way to the ground

Picked up just under 0.60” yesterday but the real story was the lightning. Eyewall captured it quite well, but it felt like we were under attack from the skies. Numerous CLOSE ctg strikes, believe a tree got hit in my neighbors backyard, quite possibly the first pic eyewall posted

…. Thar being said… we just got SLAMMED by an intense lightning storm

Mode of a have really trended down for precipitation this weekend Rather than stall, the front makes it further south, then retreats north quickly. Everyone will get rain but this won’t be the widespread high amounts shown over the last few days with a stalled boundary

Man we just keep chipping away at 7” for the month here. We keep getting rain but we either the dying remnants of a formerly severe storm or just the fringe of a storm or shower. Taken rain almost every day this week to get there but we’ve almost picked up the 1” we were missing to hit 7 for the month

Looks stormy but outer banks usually benefit from coastal fronts that stop inland convection from making it until very late in the day. Enjoy your stay, I will be in Nags Head for two weeks starting tomorrow

Excellent rain coverage for at 15% (TWC) 30% (NWS) chance day. Not huge totals here but still raining and 0.15” or enough to consider the lawn and garden watered

Mine was not meant to be a season cancel post, let me put that disclaimer out there. Just noting how quiet the entire basin is atm. Not a projection or any indicator what it will be like in a month or even a week, but the complete lack of any waves today is impressive

The Atlantic is impressively dead at the moment. Other than the wave coming off the coast of Africa, there is hardly a thunderstorm in the entire basin this morning! I know it will turn but that’s an amazingly convection free sat shot this AM of the entire Atlantic/Caribbean/GOM

Did you get hit pretty good by that storm? Looked like the worst of it went south of here