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NorthHillsWx

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  1. NorthHillsWx
    Surprisingly there seems to be some consensus growing from the 27th-on as being an active period with a much colder look. EPS and GEFS on the same page… The previous “pattern change” that failed to materialize never featured consensus between those two. This may be a good sign for the end of the month. We laugh at fantasy storms but the fact we’re getting them on op runs is a very good sign as well that there is some potential during that period.
  2. NorthHillsWx
    Radar presentation is quite impressive as it makes landfall
  3. NorthHillsWx
    EPS is now honking a SE death ridge for the end of January. Other than today, it has 850 temp anomalies above average for the SE every. Single. Day. Through the end of the run. If there’s a cancel winter button it may have just been pressed. Euro and EPS folded like a lawn chair for the 22-27th period pattern change and now look abysmal beyond that. Hate to say it but this feels like we’re going to get blanked in the pure winter months.
  4. NorthHillsWx
    I stayed up to midnight last night and watched it snow in Raleigh. It snowed again this morning. It reminded me how much I miss a real snow
  5. NorthHillsWx
    Well, looks like the mighty Euro and EPS caved to the model that shall not be named
  6. NorthHillsWx
    Mostly snow in Raleigh now.
  7. NorthHillsWx
    Holds serve on the colder look but still nothing of interest winter weather wise
  8. NorthHillsWx
    Moneys on PAC winning out and a continuation of the same pattern. Active cutters and brief cooldowns with no arctic connection. EPS has oversold cold all year I see no reason to expect it to change
  9. NorthHillsWx
    This thread is giving me life. Congrats mountain folks in NW flow areas, this should be a good one for you all. Keep sending pics
  10. NorthHillsWx
    Man that line really fell apart fast before it got here. Just 0.28” and maybe a couple 30 mph gusts last night
  11. NorthHillsWx
    If the pattern change doesn’t happen in the 22-27 timeframe than the GEFS wins bc the EPS has been honking that timeframe for days. Beyond that who knows at this point
  12. NorthHillsWx
    Pretty epic outbreak for January. Selma damage doesn’t look above EF3 but that’s a bad hit and it doesn’t matter if your house is totaled, slabbed or walls still standing, it’s still totaled. Hopefully deaths and injuries are at a minimum
  13. NorthHillsWx
    Today is definitely producing. Multiple PDS and tornado emergency warnings issued so far and some pretty scary video starting to show up online. These storms mean business
  14. NorthHillsWx
    Well, the 6z Euro has it now too all the way back into central NC
  15. NorthHillsWx
    That would be one of the funnier random events to see new Bern get 3-4 inches out of an unexpected isolated snow band while most of the MA heads into February snowless
  16. NorthHillsWx
    NAM and GFS have actually made significant westward shifts over the last 24 hours with the LP Saturday. Euro and CMC aren’t far off either. Wouldn’t shock me for a surprise somewhere in eastern NC, especially near Hwy 17
  17. NorthHillsWx
    If the NAM is correct there would actually be some heavier squalls with some isolated accumulation with that look. Too bad the trough is positively tilted and this runs out not up, that’s a banger low that gets going quickly along the frontal boundary
  18. NorthHillsWx
    GFS and some of the hi-res models throw a little moisture back into eastern NC as the shortwave digs strengthening the LP offshore Saturday. This has trended with more lift/moisture in recent runs. Won’t be a big deal but with cold air rushing in there could be some snow showers over eastern NC Saturday
  19. NorthHillsWx
    One interesting note about the pattern change around the 22nd- that’s the same day last year NC picked up a widespread snowstorm after a very bleak winter to that point.
  20. NorthHillsWx
    GEFS definitely improved a little. Hopefully the Op starts to pick up on something before there’s no more room left to jump to at the bottom of the cliff
  21. NorthHillsWx
    Shew discredit it if you want but good lord the 18z GFS is a dumpster fire actually getting worse towards the end of the month. I’m telling y’all the EPS looks great but I won’t believe it till Ops of any suite at least try to pick up on it.
  22. NorthHillsWx
    Long story short, it’s a very good look
  23. NorthHillsWx
    Midwest source of cold just doesn’t cut it east of the mountains especially with height anomalies remaining high in the SER area. I may have made it sound worse than it is but it’s not a good look and not what I’d call a definitive change to cold in the SE. That look could throw in some CAD events though so it’s not the current pattern. I guess everyone just wants a return to winter after this hellish start and that’s not a sure fire look and usually means cutters
  24. NorthHillsWx
    EPS looks fantastic starting 1-22
  25. NorthHillsWx
    I’m waiting for the EPS to come out but until we get within a week and something is still showing a pattern change I’m putting my money on anything that delays or denies it.
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