NorthHillsWx

GEFS definitely improved a little. Hopefully the Op starts to pick up on something before there’s no more room left to jump to at the bottom of the cliff

Shew discredit it if you want but good lord the 18z GFS is a dumpster fire actually getting worse towards the end of the month. I’m telling y’all the EPS looks great but I won’t believe it till Ops of any suite at least try to pick up on it.

Long story short, it’s a very good look

Midwest source of cold just doesn’t cut it east of the mountains especially with height anomalies remaining high in the SER area. I may have made it sound worse than it is but it’s not a good look and not what I’d call a definitive change to cold in the SE. That look could throw in some CAD events though so it’s not the current pattern. I guess everyone just wants a return to winter after this hellish start and that’s not a sure fire look and usually means cutters

EPS looks fantastic starting 1-22

I’m waiting for the EPS to come out but until we get within a week and something is still showing a pattern change I’m putting my money on anything that delays or denies it.

12z GEFS was in a word: BAD Reverts back to a western trough. Pacific reigns supreme through the run. Hopefully it remains on an island

We’ll just have to see who wins this one I guess!

GEFS gets a western ridge, but it’s situated too far west. That’s a cutter look late January

06z GFS punts the pattern change till February, if at all

28.8 with probably the heaviest frost of the year this morning. At least it looked wintry out

18z GFS op run might be the worst mid January run from end to end I have ever seen. Absolutely not even close to anything anywhere in SE. GEFS was slightly better towards the end of the month

Agree with this. I think the problem is all of us want to enter February with “money in the bank” (at least one event in the December-January period). Getting blanked through 2-3 of our best climo doesn’t sit well with anyone and relying on February for all of our winter weather threats doesn’t work out well. So far, any pattern change or threat remains more than 2 weeks down the road and the period until then is absolutely garbage with cutter after cutter and zero cold air anywhere near the east coast. That’s a fact.

This may be the post of the winter

Might be the first snowless winter I can remember

March will save us this winter

I got weenied for saying this period (11th-on) looked interesting a few days ago. Now we’ve got a whole page devoted to it. I’m calling this a win already!

18z GFS looks downright interesting

Euro has an absolute bomb on the 11th. It’s still offshore and cold air is limited but I haven’t 100% given up on this timeframe.

18z has lots of potential from the 11th-on

February will save us…

Still intrigued by the 7-10th timeframe. Cold air seems marginal but it’s one of those setups we’ve cashed in on with a lead wave followed by coastal development on the stalled boundary behind it while cooler air seeps in. By no means a slam duck but these are ones that tend to be less likely to cut and usually won’t be sampled well until we get closer so there being a signal across guidance is encouraging

I actually like this timeframe. Persistent troughiness in east. Seems like cold air source would be from NE which usually works better than MW for us. Kind of an overrunning pattern. Just need good HP

Honestly, get the PAC right and I’ll take my chances with the NAO. We all know that our winter weather chances are dominated by the Pacific.

23.8 here this morning. First morning since Friday we didn’t end up in the teens. Lows for the cold snap: 9.6, 19.4, 15.1, 23.8. Definitely been an impressive cold snap for there being no snowcover anywhere near us. Feels very wasted especially knowing it will take more than a week to reload