NorthHillsWx

Wait I take back what I said. The 12z GFS is definitely 100% right. Look at the kuchera map from the GFS, it literally puts Raleigh and Raleigh alone in a snow hole

Yes, cold chasing moisture behind a rapidly departing offshore LP on the 10-day GFS, what could possibly go wrong?

Doesn’t count as measurable snowfall you need at least 0.01”. God our bar is low and it’s still a challenge to reach it

Hate to say it, but if a late February SSW event is what we’re hanging out hats on for a winter storm in the south, the fat lady has sung. Looks like a blanking for the entire forum outside of the NW flow areas in the mountains. Any cold pushes are too transient in the progressive nina pattern were stuck in and even though were getting more rain than one would expect from a nina, its always associated with a warmup. Time to worry about our soggy yards and what were going to do to fix them during next weeks taste of spring.

Wintry mix right now. Rain, sleet, a few flakes. 38 degrees

Latest HRRR brings some snow east of 95 in a heavy burst. I think some areas could get a taste of winter

Misery index was the highest in my lifetime. We’ve had snowless Januarys in my life but couple that with the hottest January of my lifetime and lack of absolutely anything to track within 7 days, and the rash of rainy/foggy days, this makes January 2022 easily the worst January of my life (weather wise).

35.8 with moderate rain here. Absolutely brutal weather

Cousin in Richmond reported a surprise 1/2” of snow from a heavy burst this morning. Brother in Urbana on the bay has a dusting. If we can hang onto the precip long enough tonight we may have a shot at a few surprises…

GFS shows a plethora of possible hits on the 18z run. Do I think any will happen? Absolutely not. But it’s not a torch like we were thinking a few days ago and there is a lot of energy flying around, a lot of good storm tracks. Fly in the ointment…. Sigh….. cold air availability

Euro with a major storm 10 days out. Notice I said major storm, not major snowstorm. But it’s close

Tough to be more miserable/depressing

Interesting to see some CAMS bringing in some snow for central and eastern NC before the precip finally exits Friday. Difference is timing between them and the Euro solution, which keeps precip further south and doesn’t hold onto it long enough for the cold air to catch up. Regardless, would likely be only mood flakes if anything frozen fell, but I’d take anything at this point after this slog of rain and fog we’re stuck in.

This is comical. This should be a major winter storm, but I don’t even know if it’s possible anymore

Picked up 0.36” of rain yesterday afternoon through this morning

0.37” today. Currently a spring-like 61.5 and gorgeous out

The mid Atlantic forum has created a thread chasing a 1/2” snow on the RGEM. That’s how bad this winter is

Is it over if it never began?

Hello darkness my old friend

@Grayman@TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Hows the water in here y’all? I’m back

Euro says I’ll serve you a dish of cold rain with a side of colder rain

What stinks even more about this setup and why we’ve had some models showing potential is that the cold air IS there we just have no mechanism to get it down in time east of the mountains. On modeling it’s showing temps as low as the -20’s in parts of the northeast the day the storm system will be impacting us. Just imagine if we had a stronger low or a HP to tap some into of that… Just makes this setup that much more frustrating but also why so many have said from the start timing is everything here. We look like we’re getting the storm track we want Just need to find some mechanism to time it with the cold, something we’ve seen in some runs. Ensembles are not on our side either, showing the chance of that happening is still an outlier, but it cannot be dismissed yet. I’ll take a weak slider vs an amped system in this pattern anyday though bc it means we’re still in the game and not dealing with another cutter which we’d certainly get if this storm consolidated further west like most modeling was hinting at a few days ago. Think it was yesterday the Canadian too some areas from ice to 70’s in 24 hours

CMC is a real kick in the groin. Perfect track, ample moisture, not enough cold push. Mid 30’s and rain

Yep. And that makes the most sense in this pattern. CMC and Euro backing the energy in the SW and holding it into a consolidated system never made sense to me. These progressive slider systems are a pain to forecast and unless you get some last minute coastal development, are usually gone before they ever really arrived. We have scored on these occasionally, I think our only snow in 2020-21 winter came from a similar mode

Well 12z GFS technically didn’t kill the threat but…