Last advisory has been issued. Also included in the discussion:
“Don has been a very long-lasting tropical cyclone (including
subtropical stages) for the month of July. Preliminary data
indicate that the storm is the 5th longest-lasting system on record
for the month, just behind Emily of 2005.”
Definitely a well defined storm but I doubt the winds are over 50 kts. These upper latitude storms are known for having lower surface wind speeds (in relation to appearance) bc the lack of deep tropical convection and more stable environments surrounding them (due to cooler water) doesn’t pull sustained winds to the surface efficiently. There have been several donut storms recently in the upper Atlantic, always find them fascinating
Overnight modeling (to various degrees) has really jumped on the idea of developing 95L. On satellite with the most recent burst of overnight convection you can really start to see a bit of mid level rotation within the convective envelope. This might be a case where track means everything. There is quite a lot of wind shear ahead of the system but a track near the northern islands/Hispaniola might land the system in slightly better conditions for development the given current look of the basin. I am shocked to see the intensity guidance so bullish at the moment, given the moderate to high shear environment with significant dry air around the system.
With the tornado talk yesterday I failed to mention we picked up 0.22” here. Much more fell to our north. The farm in Louisburg had 1.53” from the same cell that ended up producing the tornado
NWS preliminary rating of a high-end EF2. We’ll see what the damage survey reveals but there’s definitely the chance this was a EF3 tornado based on some of the pictures and video floating around
A clean, long track, low precipitation supercell tornado. That happens so rarely here I cannot remember the last one. This was a significant tornado too.
Finally got the thirst quenching rain I’d been waiting for. Much like all of central NC, that line produced heavy rain and lots of lightning. Some wind, nothing over 30 mph I’d say, and no hail, but we received 1.21” of rain