mattie g

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!

Hate to say it, but I'm beginning to lose interest in this storm. It'll be cool when the snow comes in hot and heavy, but it'll flip during the day on Sunday, which kinda sucks (rather it flip at night if it's going to flip at all). Also doesn't help that we've been tracking this thing for like a week and we've seen such drastic changes for the worse over the last few days. I'm already looking forward to the next big-dog window, so at least there's that!

Me, after watching the GFS from 228 to 252 hours...

It’s all good in theory, but it’s a different situation when you have two kids and a job (which I could admittedly do remotely), plus a dog to get home to! That plus three other families without quite the flexibility the wife and I have with our jobs…

Weird way to end up. All I take from this and previous runs is that the pattern is ripe.

If that happened verbatim, we’d either have to cut our trip short or see if we could stick around an extra day or three.

I’m not far enough out, but it’s looking like it’ll be a Runner

That look at 500 is something else. EPO, PNA, west-based NAO, 50/50…

Am I seeing three vorts trying to get their act together?

Yeah…juiced up Low over New Orleans…

That new kid posted about it in the wrong thread. I’m interested, if only because I don’t want to be stuck in Deep Creek next Sunday…

I'm not unhappy at this run verbatim, but I'm gonna take the pessimistic route and say that the confluence was ever so lessened on this run and it was reflected in the more prominent warm nose at 700 late on Sunday...and that 6z is going to take another step and be the obvious cave.

It'll likely start tonight. It was always going to - just a matter of when. At least it gave us a little hope for a bit...

RGEM cold press at 700 is much better on 0z. It can't hold off the surge down here, but when comparing up in PA and NE it's obvious. Not saying it's going to change anything in future runs - just an observation that the cold is much "pressier" in the 0z.

The worst

As I was driving my daughter to dance a little earlier, I decided that I'm going to wake up on Sunday morning, pour myself a coffee, and post my obs. Then I'm going to do my best to stay out of the obs thread and just let the chips fall where they may. It'll only bring me down if I see all the posts from people to my southwest reporting pingers and I know they're on their way to MBY. Then I'll pop back in when things wind down and post my final obs after enjoying a wintry Sunday, most likely in the company of my friends and neighbors and having a few pops while I'm at it! Oh...and I also decided to pour myself a hefty Bowman Single Barrel this evening.

Last two runs have been nice. I'm riding the line, but at least it's a little hit of dopamine that I need. I know the comedown is on its way, but that's OK for this little bit,

I've quoted and called out some posts recently that are obviously composed by using AI. I don't have an issue with people using it, but don't pretend like it's your own analysis.

2025 was like 3650 days long, so this tracks.

THEY sure did! Easy job THEY have!

WHY WON'T THE LOW JUST F*CKING TRANSFER WHEN IT GETS TO TENNESSEE?!?!

But falling sleet sucks. I made a post about it a few pages back that captures my feelings on the subject of a flip to sleet.

It really is

Agreed. In our neck of the woods, it's all about how long temps at 700 can hold on. I just don't see any way out of the flip.

I think we've determined that seemingly good changes up top have been offset by other changes elsewhere. Been happening for the last 48 hours or more.