NW_of_GYX

This was GYX through 7 pm tonight. That's a pretty bad bust for the mountains of western Maine. It happens.

Ya, with better than 10:1 loaf and SB could do 4-7" tonight. In which case the bust wouldn't be so bad, but I'm guessing there was a lot of disappointed skiers this morning who were expecting to wake up to 8-12". Hopefully for folks on vacation they wake up to a surprise tomorrow.

round one was a pretty bad busted forecast to my north. Saddleback reporting 2" and SR 4". Both of their comms teams were riding the 8-12 forecast hard the past 36 hours. I'm just not sure where anyone was seeing those amounts, only a few models were showing more than an inch of qpf in those areas and 12z runs from yesterday were more like .5 -.6". Overall a pretty bad model and forecast fail.

I’m about 63% of climo atm. Gonna need a few of these next systems to work to get there this year.

6” from round 1. Let’s see if round 2 can get me into warning criteria. No complaints here, great powder skiing this morning and clean up was a breeze, stuff is very light. Nice little storm.

No changes

Clouds just moved in here quickly, should be your way soon.

18z gfs brings the good qpf further north. Goal posts tightening.

Correct. And as some mets have already noted, the synoptic solutions the Nam suite had earlier didn't make sense. The 18z starts what looks to be a trend south. A lot of hand wringing here from folks who look to walk away with a nice little snow storm.

18z NAM lava gonna meh his way to 8"

farther north than you are

Fom GYX AFD: The NAM is particularly bullish but we can`t discount it since it has done well with temperature profiles in these southwest flow aloft overunning scenarios.

goal posts are there. I like where I am in the middle of them. 6-8 would be great since it hasn't snowed here in almost a month.

Nice Feb 17th thunderstorm just rolled through the mountains of western Maine.

This has been a sneaky good week of skiing so far, cold enough at night for things to set up, warm enough by first chair to get that first layer to soften up a bit. Not corn either, just a totally ripping surface that lasts till about noon. Of course with weekend traffic it will by bye bye around 10 am. Helps that a lot of resorts have the guns on in anticipation of a gnarly start to vacation week. It's seasons like this that remind me that even if we warm another 2c globally, we will still be skiing in the northeast.

Le massif reporting 10". Continues to be an excellent snow year for the big PQ cities. I look forward to a winter where we don't warm sector every storm and congrats QC.

Sure does, but their system is mostly on roads. You want to be riding on the roads this season. Trails just never froze up and won't. If you don't mind trailering a little further, erroll and nash stream are the closest areas where a lot of the trail miles are on roads. But you'd have to register in NH, yet another reason I rent!

I've seen some pretty gnarly photos of water bars on local trails. There will be folks riding no doubt but for the sake of your sled go further north.

That system will cut, nothing there to stop it. Best you can hope for is to cut even further west and avoid the big precip but even that is looking unlikely. Cold modeled behind it, that weekend could be one of the worst ski weekends of the year. Don't want to burst your bubble, but that's what I'm seeing.

I mean I still have over 12" on the ground, more in shady spots. It's hard for me to give it a D when we're well on our way to snowfall climo, but if this pattern holds through first week of March then I'll be downgrading quickly. This isn't 15-16 snowfall wise, but temp wise it's not far behind. I'm having a hard time buying a late season flip to a colder pattern but could imagine another stretch like we had in Jan. This season is good reminder for me why I don't own snowmobiles, just rent when the mood/season strikes.

Ya the crown up to Gaspe cleaned up in that stretch last year. Gaspe was absolutely buried. Not that different from the tenor of this season (or 21' or 20' for that matter, although 20' did produce a nice event last week of March after an early torch) either. Rangeley was melted even worse by late March in 21'.

I don't doubt it. Feb vacation week is coming up in 2 weeks, and just like xmas vacation week you can count on terrible skiing and snow conditions. At this point you almost hope for sun and runs at 50s that week or else it will be pretty miserable for the folks on vacation. Just seems like it's impossible to get a low underneath us this winter. With that said, we realistically have 8 more weeks of threat watching here and I expect a few more events to produce but we'll struggle to reach climo unless we get another stretch like in Jan.

We were totally melted out by third week in March. As it goes sometimes, the last week of March and first of April produced for elevated NNE (along with some rain) but it was toast here after March 6th or so.

It’s early Feb. My winter is just starting. Only thing I don’t mind melting right now are SNE snow weenies. I can see why you’re ready for a melt though, just drove over the kanc and it’s a different world on the west side of the whites. Me to conway is still buried but Lincoln and campton will be melted out by early next week. Plenty of snow above 2000’ on the kanc though.