NW_of_GYX

Pouring snow, over 4” now

What a massive storm this is, from Havana to James bay.

Heavy snow, 2.5”

Nothing like 7” 7:1 snow with an inch of water added to it for good measure. Should be a joy to clean up.

Just measured 8” cold smoke so we’ll hit the low end of the GYX range, not sure about double digits but we’re under a little weenie band right now. Radar drops off quick to my north. Photo from about 1 pm today .

From GYX AFD for the 10th: The system`s cold front/occlusion reaching the coast will likely kick off secondary cyclogenesis there, providing a mechanism to support a CAD in the western Maine mountains and lakes/foothills region southeast of the mountains... at least initially. Overall I`m expecting this to be a more wintry storm than other strong, dynamic storms experienced this season thus far with some real winners (foot-plus) possible across the mountains in terms of snowfall. But, there still remains potential for heavy rainfall rates which could lead to some hydrological issues...and significant uncertainty as to how the rain/snow line will develop. It appears as though winds will again be a widespread concern, though perhaps not to the degree (and very likely not to the duration) of Dec 18. This is certainly the storm to track for widespread, significant impacts during this forecast period. Stay tuned.

13th no bueno verbatim but at this point just glad to see it there still

gives the berks some front end snow but that's about it. Others have said that this is still worth watching for SNE but I would hedge against that. This one's for NNE IMO, and it may be for far NNE. time will tell

high doesn't retreat as fast and helps the cold press, similar to earlier runs before yesterdays melt. I expect this to waffle some more but today's trends are undeniable

GFS coming in colder for the 10th, looks more like euro. Whites crushed on the front end

let's get that weenie fronto band back to my hood on sunday afternoon. 3k and HRRR aligned with two areas of heaviest QPF.

dumps the core of the negative height anomalies further west as the block retrogrades

stealing snow on that HRRR run. Good thing for the SNE weenies that model stinks at this lead

others have mentioned already but that is a real deal -epo dump on the eps mid month. Winter arrives in that period for some of the spots in the lower 48 that have been so mild this season, SW Montana especially.

Yup, great look at this lead

I like the 13th period. GEFS mean cuts to the lakes but it's been very consistent on the OP runs except for a few runs yesterday. Transfers the low to the benchmark, cold air in Canada, I like that period for a region wide event.

I mentioned yesterday it would be a few days before models had a handle on the CAD. That's a decently cold airmass in place prior and had the look of something models would underestimate until we got closer in.

Im thinking longfellows like saddleback and sugarloaf. Whites not so much but it could change

We’ve been on a remarkable string of these epic cutters going back to the Dec 20’ grinch event. It looks like dog shit as modeled but we’re still 5 days away. The mountains to my NW look to net gain and avoid getting washed away like they did 3 weeks ago at least.

Yup, it's been consistent for days. 6 days out though and I suspect it will be a while before we get a handle on the strength of any CAD and timing of any secondary SLP. I'd feel good in the western Maine mountains and northern Maine. It snows where it should snow. SNE never had a shot at this.

she gone for SNE. Still think we can make this work in my hood and points north. Too bad we've lost that earlier transfer on all models. Plenty of time to trend in the right direction though

Nice to see the 13th-14th back on the GFS op. Would like to see some ensemble support for that.

qp mega says that once the block retrogrades it connects with the SE ridge and we cut anyways. It always cuts in qd jamega's forecasts. Hopefully he wrong.

weenie GFS run for these parts as well. What a monster out there in clown range on the CMC for the 13th-14th. GFS lost that system but maybe it comes back. We had a nice 3 week stretch that started last year on Jan 6. Can we do it again?

Euro is gross but still think the 10th is the system to watch for NNE. Nice to see the follow up wave on the 14th still modeled out there in clown range