crossbowftw3
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Everything posted by crossbowftw3
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At this stage of the ballgame I would be inclined to lean closer to a New England track with some impacts for LI. How many more ticks west to get NYC into the game is the question. For those of us N&W of the city proper and further inland this is likely not our game.
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It could swing back closer to deliver something to NYC but at this point a New England strike is beginning to look more likely than it did 12-24 hours ago
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That’s my idea as well for the moment. Ultimate reality probably doesn’t stray from that, but maybe 25-50 or so miles of error.
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We really can put a feather in our caps that these waters will (almost) always destroy every slow-moving TC that attempts to move through.
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Major flooding potential for anywhere this just sits and spins new convection in conjunction with surge flooding.
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That’s the school of thought being presented, any strong TC would need to absolutely book it to prevent weakening in these waters. In 36-48 hours a strong cat2/3 quickly weakens to a cat 1 that’s likely commencing an ET transition because of the slower movement speed. Surge and freshwater flooding would get exacerbated if/where this thing decides to park itself.
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This entire subforum is in the game for now but I would anticipate some pushes back East until we settle in on one common solution. As others on the NE thread are noting wind threat probably won’t be the major stickler but flooding—surge and fresh—would be exacerbated.
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Beginning to think that if everything holds in the next 48/72 hours LI and East interests need to think about preparing—fairly sizable TS force wind area at this time with a 75kt cat1/transitioning cyclone pushing ashore at least with the HWRF considered.
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Weakens it from there into what’s probably a transitioning cyclone by 102 hours with an expanding windfield
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HWRF with a likely beginning to transition cat 1 at 102 hours
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949mb at maximum and beginning to rapidly weaken on approach at 955
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Not concerned yet here inland with Henri, but coastal areas should already be getting put on notice.
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Still looks reasonably good for a quick 1-2” here in Sullivan tonight with the heavier amounts likely to remain NW of here.
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Certainly a signal exists for 95L to be within that proverbial danger zone for TCs, whether or not it’s a strong TC in 8-10 days time is up for debate.
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Getting a very early inkling that 95L is shaping up to be the first storm-of-the-season type, although this is obviously way too early for me to say so. Certainly a signal exists for some kind of a TC to exist in 8-10 days time.
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Beginning to clear out but at a relatively slow pace, 80/74. Once the clouds clear we should be able to take off up here.
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And commence the “winter is already dead” panic threads
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Meanwhile it’s been radio silence in the Catskills since the rain shield went through. Absolutely bonkers event that could have been worse had just enough instability been in place.
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Running very low on time to appreciably destabilize as the rain shield is now under 100 miles away from me.
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I definitely didn’t agree with the slight northward push of the slight risk at the 8AM update because north of 84 definitely isn’t seeing much severe today.
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Central PA - Summer 2021
crossbowftw3 replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Watching from afar today in the Catskills where it looks like we won’t see as much action, I would think those who are in the main target zones need to thin out within the next few hours -
We may get socked in for a good solid while, if it ever breaks. Still not above 70F yet at 10:45 edit: just as I say this the sun is attempting to peek out again, but definitely won’t get the job done to get any substantial clearing going. The rain shield is drawing ever closer and it’ll get to me by 2 PM.
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Leaning more wet but some isolated severe possible, better threats should be along and south of NYC proper
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Clouds beginning to win the fight in the Catskills, 68/64, thinking our biggest threat is likely heavy rain now.
