Kmlwx

Complete turd.

15z HRRR rolling in now is pretty robust for the metro area.

That little cluster seems to have overperformed. There are already 3 LSRs showing up in the wake of it.

I would think if they hang around too long they might reduce the risk over in NoVA. But Central Maryland and other areas still seem like a decent risk area (as evidenced by SPC area).

23-1z seems fine to me. It's not overnight - and it's still summer so there should still be enough instability around that time. Plus, these things do tend to come in just a touch ahead of schedule. Also that cluster in NoVA right now could lay down some additional boundaries to enhance later convection.

NAM nest and HRRR actually look pretty decent - especially the NAM nest - even some UD helicity tracks lol

After seeing outlooks like 6/29/12 I tend not to rule *anything* out completely until we are right up on the event. We've seen several/many times when we are barely in a 5% and end up in a higher end SLGT or even moderate. Not saying the setup is at all similar to that - just comparing how things can shift/evolve with severe.

NICE inverted V signature on that sounding. Also...anybody see the day 3 hatching well to our north? Wow.

It's been a while since we've seen a D2 ENH. Nice!

NAM parameters (yes I know it's the NAM at long range) would argue that Wednesday is the better severe potential day perhaps.

@weatherwiz - over on his IG was mentioning some EML potential in that time frame I believe. Something to track locally sure beats the doldrums that can set in pretty quickly. Isaias feels like ancient history already.

If that comes true I'm blaming you entirely.

Definitely hints of fall mornings in the air the past few days. Can't wait for these to become more regular. I'm pretty done with heat and humidity at this point unless it's going to pop off some good storms...

Any storm is a woo storm. Lightning and thunder make most of us pretty happy. The odds of getting minivan sized hail and derecho winds are like 1 in 398375475973498579345 around here.

Maybe a few isolated woo storms today. Nothing to write home about it seems.

As soon as I ruled out the actual FiOS box shorting out I immediately assumed it had to be that outdoor outlet. I've never used that, and if I need to power something out in the driveway, I could just run one of those long extension cords from inside the garage. I'd be fine if they just disconnected it from the GFCI and power entirely... I'm assuming the builder is going to come in and essentially just swap it for a new one which may have the same issue. We'll see.

It appears to control 3 outlets. 1 being the GFCI itself with the reset button (nothing plugged in). The next being an outlet in the telecom box which only has my FiOS ONT plugged into it (have confirmed the ONT is not bad as the GFCI will still trip with it unplugged). The third outlet is an outdoor outlet that is protected by a plastic cover. I verified no water had gotten into the shield - but the outlet itself sits next to a downspout so my money is on that being the issue. Every time it has happened it has stopped once the rain has been over for at least 5 hours or so. Hopefully they don't have to do major work - it's a relatively new condo/townhouse style unit. Landlord is coming with the builder folks on Wednesday. Funny thing is - it did NOT trip during a major downpour the other day. But it seems like prolonged rain or steady rain over 4-6+ hours will do it.

Rain was soaking/steady enough to trip my pesky GFCI in the garage. Only thing plugged in out there is the FiOS networking terminal. Landlord has somebody scheduled to come take a look on Wednesday...has happened the last 3 rainstorms.

Won't be long before we start to hear of the water rescues being dispatched.

Pouring here now in Colesville, MD

Mesoanalysis begs to differ on instablity. Plenty of CAPE

No - it will likely curve southeast and south with time.

Hell of a derecho going through the Midwest right now. One measured gust was to 106mph!