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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Thursday seems as though it may carry potential - but it's ages away.
  2. Kmlwx
    - I was like - I don't remember posting recently in obs!
  3. Kmlwx
    Cool looking outflow on radar as well!
  4. Kmlwx
    From watching this tool this spring so far - it seems like it way overdoes things - I'm not even sure it works on the same percentages as SPC...so take those maps with a grain (or a handful) of salt. I've been using it more of a "first look" at which days to look at closer.
  5. Kmlwx
    The NCAR AI convective page is highlighting some impressive severe potential next Thursday...honestly very impressed with how robust it is this far out...(link below) https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/ainwp/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3_KcoSRHWhY1lxCTCfOqSNC0AD8SUSmL_c7R_N8rtpvo-PsNNvuY3vuI4_aem_Stpgx3ntIqB8IVErFY76cQ
  6. Kmlwx
    "EXCLUSIVE!"
  7. Kmlwx
    June 2008 is still showing on the 12z updates to the CIPS guidance. Interestingly, if you sort solely by 500mb rather than all fields, it is the top analog with a score of 0.918. While I doubt we realize that high end of a threat - it's definitely got my attention. Worth noting that some of the neighboring domains on there also have June 4-5 2008 showing up as well. Obvious questions remain in regards to day-of factors like instability - but my interest level has risen a bit.
  8. Kmlwx
    CIPS has casually been showing June 4, 2008 in the analogs (not the top one at all) for the upcoming period. Not giving it much thought for now - but we'll see if we can squeeze some storms out.
  9. Kmlwx
    Cool radar today - lots of storms moving in different directions.
  10. Kmlwx
    A new site or something even cooler (micronet?!?!?!)
  11. Kmlwx
    FWIW - HRRR has been awful at initializing the storms to the west.
  12. Kmlwx
    I'm actually sort of intrigued at Sunday evening. The timing seems a bit off and it's not clear that areas (especially NE of the Potomac) will be unstable enough - but 12z NAM nest really fires a lot of storms mainly west and south of the metros. It would align well with CIPS honking - but not sure there's a ton of support. Good indication of missing ingredients.
  13. Kmlwx
    CIPS is *lit* at the 72hr frame. It even has June 1, 2012 in the analogs
  14. Kmlwx
    Also...that was a remarkable stretch. I know with the addition of "enhanced" things are a bit harder to come by for moderate risks now...BUT we had moderate risks in 2008 on June 4, 10, 16. Pretty absurd for this region for a single month. 2012 was another one of course. Many remember the derecho - but we often forget about the TOR-driven moderate risk on June 1, 2012. We had a uber mini 15% hatched zone right over the DC area for tornado. We definitely seem to have periods when we go on "runs" for extreme weather types. I'm sure it's linked to overall large-scale patterns persisting for more than just a few days.
  15. Kmlwx
    I remember being in 6th period newspaper and itching to go home (I lived right through the woods). Literally sprinted (also had to take a leak because the bathrooms at school sucked LOL) and made it home with just enough time to track the line rolling in. I remember seeing tons of tree debris flying through the air. As bad as 6/4/2008 was - I think it was outclassed by the 2012 derecho pretty easily.
  16. Kmlwx
    CIPS has a bit of a signature for severe around 120hr. One thing I've seen relatively consistently this spring so far is analogs from 1998 being peppered into the mix. That was a really robust spring.
  17. Kmlwx
    Looking ahead: CIPS is suggesting some severe threat starting up by the 156hr timeframe and extending into the longer range as well. There's an especially strong signal for 168hr long range panel from the 0z images.
  18. Kmlwx
    Will be dependent on timing of course but also how the Bz gets tilted. Always a chance it could be a dud but it certainly looks impressive from the speed alone.
  19. Kmlwx
    Seems like Glen Echo likely got some hail.
  20. Kmlwx
    Everything looks sub-severe so far - probably will intensify a bit as it nears/gets east of I-95.
  21. Kmlwx
    Can see the precip that will come through late tonight blossoming in WV.
  22. Kmlwx
    Rotation in the line near White Oak/Hillandale. Increase in lightning as well. TOR warned now.
  23. Kmlwx
    Moving over here since no longer severe seemingly. Pouring here in Colesville again. Local stream gauge after the last round was already pushing 6ft. Guessing it dropped a bit during the lull but it should shoot back up with this line of heavy rain.
  24. Kmlwx
    A day like today with a similar vort pass but with perhaps better mid-level lapse rates and a bit more instability would have probably yielded a substantial outbreak. As it stands it was already quite impressive with the number of warnings.
  25. Kmlwx
    I drove out of the neighborhood and along Randolph from Kemp Mill east to New Hampshire before turning south and then back into my neighborhood. Nothing much of note. The canvas sign from a church along Randolph was torn off and some tiny twigs around in spots but nothing to note otherwise.
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