ORH_wxman

You’re probably wondering what the hell all the rumors were about moderate summers in New England, lol....prob near-record warm start to summer up in northern New England. You’ll get an AC and then not have to use it for the next 2 summers...LOL. Nice reprieve today though.

Also gotta watch out for a raging bull moose during the rutting season in fall. All jacked up on testosterone. They have been known to go psycho and attack people trying to shoo them off. I remember one story where a guy got attacked after the moose was curious about its reflection in a large window while passing by on the property. Its funny because other times of the year they are pretty skittish.

We have the final June numbers in....here's the breakdown of what the minimum in 2020 would be if we followed the same path as every other year: So if we followed the same path that 2019 followed after 6/30, we would finish at 3 million sq km of sea ice area. The post-2007 average path followed is 2.78 million sq km which is what I will use as my baseline. However, there are two factors that will cause me to lower this baseline a bit. First, is that we had a 340k(!!) loss on 7/1....and second, we have a very hostile pattern for the ice. We're currently into a nuclear dipole pattern which would continue to assault the ice for the next week. This will help increase melting and melt ponds while the sun angle is still pretty high in the arctic. Normally, I would put the chances of passing 2012's minimum of 2.228 million sq km at close to 0% based simply on the chart above. But I'll give it an outside shot of happening this year given the current pattern and the huge loss on 7/1. My prediction will be for minimum sea ice area in 2020 is 2.5 million sq km +/- 300k. A minimum of 2.5 million sq km would be 3rd lowest. The top two are 2012 (2.228) and 2016 (2.463). Sea ice extent is a little more fickle since it can depend on compaction vs area which is very straight forward. But for the minimum daily NSIDC sea ice extent, I'll go with 3.8 million sq km +/- 500k. I use larger error bars on the extent due to the much higher standard deviation.

Aka, Mt Mansfield visits Scooter for 6 weeks. I remember running the stats, you had like 20-something days of measurable during that stretch and like 30 with a trace or more. So many days in between storms would put up like 0.6”...lol.

I’ll never embrace high dews from a comfort standpoint. The only reason I’d want them is if we have a legit severe wx setup. I don’t understand what high dews accomplish for outdoor activities that a day like 84/53 does not. Maybe if I’m spending all day at a pool party or waterpark I could make an exception.

Just got drenched by a nice storm....still raining. Another quick inch it looks like before it moves out.

Yeah looks like MPM might make up for lost time. That looks big just west of ORH.

Can you imagine Kevin downplaying a snow advisory event in winter? There would be dozens of posts about it “ripping” and “heaviest snow of the season”.

Congrats on the rainy afternoon that NYC was supposed to get.

Rain just started picking up. Looks like we might get a nice little drink with that northern band going right along and just south of the pike region.

At least fall has the foliage. Spring is utterly useless in New England. Pure garbage. I wish we’d go right from winter to summer.

Nice little circulation there between SYR and ALB. We’ll have to watch that.

Looks like a queen yellowjacket....they often end up inside in spring and early summer as they emerge from winter hibernation looking to build a nest. They usually winter in the attic of homes or other spots that are warmer than outside burrows and when they emerge, they often emerge the "wrong direction" and end up inside rather than outside. They are usually sluggish and don't fly fast and aggressive like the worker wasps so the risk of getting stung is pretty low. Though it's getting a little late in the season for a queen to be emerging....I stopped finding them inside about 3 weeks ago....maybe a straggler. Just kill it but be careful as it can still sting you even after it is dead. Pick it up with a lot of paper towels or thick gloves.

Scooter has transformed into an old lady in summer within a period of like 2 years...wearing a shawl outside if it's not 95F. We were outside with my son biking today and I saw more people than usual. That' whats happens when its 80/50 vs 90/70.

Not sure if even gets that far south on EPS....maybe by the time it is elongated.

It trended north compared to 00z.

Boo ya!

Time to move west into Litchfield county and embrace winter. You will get more severe there too.

I'm sure we'll get pulsers that collapse on themselves after 30 minutes.

Lol, 13 out of the first 17 days of August.....that looks like a huge BDL torch, nevermind BTV.

We've slowed down recently from the reverse dipole.....2020 now trails 2019, 2012, 2010, and 2007. Though not by huge amounts, so a top 3 melt season is still very much possible. We'll see if the area losses pick back up as the reverse dipole weakens.

I never forecasted coc all month. But I did downplay the chance for 90s last week due to meh 850 temps which was dead-on. We kept topping out in the 80s.

How’s the 6/8 heat wave looking?

Yep....hot and humid sucks ass unless I'm at a pool party or the beach. For hiking, yard work, biking, golfing, etc....I want 75/40...and if I can't have that, I'll take cloudy and 74/66. But different strokes for different folks.