ORH_wxman

For selfish reasons, I'm always happy that most people do not follow the Ginxy/ORH_wxman school of thought when it comes to skiing.....ski hard in March. Usually the best conditions of the season are in March at most places. The bonus is that you also are less likely to be in 0F temps with the sun struggling to stay above the horizon at 3pm like you get in late December and January.

Yeah openiong day was fine I'm sure because of the timing of the upslope...I'm talking about in general though early on...lots of thaw and refreeze the next 10 days = icy death ribbons

Gotta get those runs in on the icy death ribbons. This is why I rarely ski in early season. Even when there is a big snowstorm in early season, the pent up demand usually makes it hard to avoid big crowds unless I play hooky and go during a weekday. But I'm guessing things will be rocking pretty good by Xmas week up in the ski areas if the ensembles are correct. Looks like a pretty good 2-3 week period coming up post-12/5.

Yeah both solutions will provide for chances though I think I’d rather have the GEFS look. A compromise would certainly be pretty solid. The split flow look in Canada with all that weakness up in Hudson Bay and N Quebec is def interesting on the EPS. It’s often a look we see in major coastal storms. Only issue is that the cold on the EPS is not overly deep so you get a little less margin for error. But choosing between that look and the GEFS is a good “problem” to have. It certainly beats having a hideous pig vortex up in AK.

Yep originally nicknamed the “one eyed pig” and then it just got shortened to “pig”.

Split flow with a height max over Hudson is actually pretty damned good. EPS also have a pretty steep +PNA a few days before that so might be some chances in there prior to the 10th.

You’d have to think there would be multiple legit threats in the extended with that look. Really good meridional flow.

As long as there is no pig, I’m happy with the look. Dec 2008 had a big Aleutian ridge too and -PNA. Both ‘07 and ‘08 did. It doesn’t look like the PNA is going to go negative anytime soon though. Maybe just not as ragingly positive. We’ll see if it starts to revert to more typical Nina -PNA toward later December.

Aren’t you west of 495? Lol

A ridge retrograding from the PNA region into AK wouldn’t return PAC puke to the CONUS. It would actually encourage more of an Arctic plunge....it just increases the chance that a system could cut if the ridge is further west like that.

He’s usually a complete weenie optimist that goes into wishcast mode in winter. I think he’s trying the reverse psychology thing this year after last year’s dud.

As long as the pig doesn’t return we would have our chances even if the ridge retros into AK. Lot of weakness in the NAO regions...esp back toward N Quebec and Hudson. That’s good.

It looks like an olive purée. I can’t stand olives but I’ve seen people put that on bread or crackers before.

PNA is keeping the trough pinned over our longitude too before that. That’s probably a good spot for it to be with marginal cold around. Lowers the probability of something cutting inland.

I think that’s low-balling it. Maybe something like Dec 1970, Jan 2011, Feb 2015, and Mar 1993

Hopefully it sticks...pre-Christmas pattern of 1995 and 1975 are showing up in the objective analogs now.

Yeah not buying it right now. We need to get closer to the first event anyway and figure out how amped or not it ends up because that would impact any potential second wave developing along the stalled boundary. Despite the mega amped OP runs, still a good amount of spread in the ensembles for 12/1.

Yeah he’s on the wrong side of Pinkham notch for upslope. The synoptic stuff will come though. Some years there’s a couple good ones in November but other years it seems like you’re waiting and then all of the sudden you get destroyed by several in a row in December.

I love the sea scallops...the bay scallops are too small for me. I’ll maybe eat them if they are an appetizer at a party or something.

It definitely “feels” like this season is starting sluggish based on the last two Novembers (October warning criteria snowfall down here not withstanding)....but then I think back to like the 2007-2010 years which were excellent for snowfall but several of those Novembers weren’t exactly rocking, even in NNE. We weren’t starting permanent snowpack in NNE in early to mid November like the past two Novembers.

I used to go to Yankee lobster all the time by Harpoon Brewery back before it became a circus on the seaport and I loved their scallop and clam plate. Place is great because the boats come right to their dock in the back. Fresh stuff.

If it produces a bout of blocking (even if only for a couple weeks) in January, it could be very helpful.

Yeah it was pretty terrible....there were a few fleeting moments of snow...esp for SNE (NNE was screwed even worse) in February. But yeah, more or less garbage pattern all winter. My guess is you'll start "permanent" pack season there behind the rainstorm that models have for Dec 1. Decent chance you get upslope behind it with that ULL takings its sweet time to move out, and then hopefully we start adding some synoptic stuff after that.

Who knows...good question. Something similar happened in the strong La Nina of 1975-1976. Might be a good couple case studies some day.

The Aleutian low holds pretty firm which keeps the PNA ridge in place...sort of just reloads instead of rolling over....it's a pretty stable setup if you can keep those two pieces in place. Hopefully that prodces some threats after 12/5-12/6 or so.