ORH_wxman

Thought it would be better based on upper air at 120-132. Either way, very strong setup. These wiggles will happen.

GFS will come in good again. Prob not HECS this time but that look is just classic. Nice to have longwave features in place because it provides more wiggle room.

This is a miller B setup, so you'd sell big snows for MD, even with the -NAO. Doesn't mean it can't happen (see 2/9/10), but it takes some pretty anomalous features to slam that far south with a Miller B and whiff your NH area.

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F132&rundt=2020121012 12/16/07 is the top analog at the moment....which makes sense. This one really looks like that storm except the NAO is negative (which the analog table can't see since it only goes on a smaller domain) so this one would likely end up getting more resistance to hugging the coast/inland running than that one did.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2003/us1205.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2003/us1206.php

With that high placement, I'd take the under on the CF making it that far inland.

mid-levels are way colder...so the only thing looking at soundings will matter for is whether the ratios are like 10 to 1 or 18 to 1....like a normal snowstorm. Tha is assuming of course that something like the Euro/GFS are semi-close to reality.

This type of evolution is a great example how the Atlantic being favorable prevents a cutter or inland runner.

Yeah less likely to have this go full zonked out west....still possible, but less likely with the NAO the way it is and the 50/50 low. This is still 6 days out though, so we're going to see some big changes run to run.

Ukie looks like a late developer based on 144.

GFS at 132 looks quite classic for Miller B.

Dr No is more like waking from the post-lunch coma with a ripping hangover. You're reading the stingy Eurowx snow maps with a pot of coffee in front of you.

When that's not doing it, you can break out the secret stash and fire up the JMA.

The PV just kind of sits there in the same spot and spins for days on end....good environment to just keep cooling down with almost no solar insolation now up there.

You basically get a ridge bridge now at about D5-7. That is a good thing..... The -NAO going forward is nice too...especially since the N PAC isn't that good once we're about D8+....the NAO can really help put a system or two underneath us on that scenario.

It's actually always been there but the models were breaking it down really quickly N of AK before it could really exert much influence. I am always skeptical when guidance breaks down blocks very quickly....it happens sometimes in reality, but more often they do it too quickly. In this case, it was really bad though, they not only did it too quickly, they failed to see it strengthen.

I was actually thinking that this morning when I took my boys outside to the car to drop them off at daycare....it was like 31F out and not that cold but the pack was this frozen mass and that combo had me thinking "this kind of feels like March 20th or something when it's not that cold, but still cold enough to refreeze the paste that we got in some event on St. Patty's day"

The good part of about this threat is that it has multi-guidance ensemble support. It's not just showing up on one model and kind of meh on the others. There's never any guarantees at 6-6.5 days out, but if you had to pick what you want to see at this time frame, then that is pretty darn solid. You have the larger scale pieces in palce like Scott outlined on his map and you have some antecedent cold and a good shortwave. About all you can ask for. Sure, it could go to crap, but we'll roll the dice all day long on that setup and we'll hit more than we miss. It's like being in a 3-1 count in baseball. You have the advantage at that point even though you could still pop out to shortstop.

Yeah man, look at this crap....you can just tell by looking at it in the pic that it's like 4 to 1 slime (that has been refrozen for days now).

That is pretty darn classic. Hopefully it sticks.

Yeah places like ORH and northward will prob keep full cover. The 495 belt (esp down this way) will prob try and keep a little bit. But hopefully the pack retention doesn't matter anyway and by the time we get to Sunday, we're tracking a a major storm, lol.

You'll prob keep at least some of the pack in the non-torch spots where the afternoon sun doesn't hit it. But regardless, there's a good chance we reload next week. I think we're going to hit on one of these threats over the next 10-12 days.

That’s definitely been a theme on today’s guidance...started trending toward that a day or two ago but it seems like today the models are really bullish on it. EPS has it too....though the EPS doesn’t have as much western CONUS ridging as the GEFS which would be nice to see. I remember you posting about Mar 2001 back on the ne.weather newsgroup. I think you had like a dozen mid-Atlantic posters ready to kill you in that thread, lol. I didn’t post yet back then but that’s when I really started following the online weather community.