ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yeah it was slightly SE of 18z but still a huge hit for a large chunk of posters. Minor differences.
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RPM zonked up again. RGEM looks slightly SE of 18z.
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Yeah 3k was actually less impressive than 18z which says more about 18z than the 00z run. The 00z run was still ridiculous but didn’t quite match 18z. Regardless. Someone is gonna get croaked in some banding with this.
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Still a huge hit for many. Just not quite as crazy as 18z
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NAM is gonna be SE of 18z
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Yeah I think it would actually hit eastern areas harder than the qpf showed. H5 looked a little better.
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I honestly thought that big CCB at 48h was gonna destroy E MA but then it slid just east. It got lighter stuff a little further inland. But this was kind of a wash with 12z.
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End result is pretty close to 12z. Maybe just a tick better in getting precip further inland. Incremental changes.
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18z euro looks a smidge more amped through 36.
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Yeah you’d basically have to double that for 90th percentile imho. Maybe not quite double it further east but close.
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1/27/11...different type of system though. That was the one where Ginxy to Kevin was getting 4” per hour for a couple hours straight and Kevin slept through it.
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Also make sure we specify that it could have been pre-local on the 8s. I think that was sometime in 1996 they implemented that schedule. Prior to that, the local forecast was sometimes played within 5 minutes of the previous one.
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That was a nice little move on the GFS. That’s probably double digits for SE MA that run but it extends some pretty good snows well inland.
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This feels like the classic tickle back SE storm in the final 12-18 hours. Tonight and tomorrow there will be some more zonked runs that start spooking the southeast crew and then it will settle back to reality a little bit in the final run or two.
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Yeah it might have actually been better up your way..it doesn't turn east quick as quick as the NAM
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This is prob the best frame for Philly
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That one would give PTSD to anyone in SNE who remembers it....I think it gave LI a foot and even croaked ACK but basically whiffed everyone else (maybe like 1-3" for far southern areas)
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RPM and 3km NAM agree...that's an unbeatable combo
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LOL at 3km NAM....that is ridiuclous. Like trying to pull a 12/9/05 or something with a 6 hour nuclear detonation
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Northern stream is fighting it a bit on the 18z NAM but southern stream is going wild, so it might overcome it.
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Euro was kind of the last hold out on a major system for 2/9 last night but finally went flatter at 12z today. Given the fast flow and multiple vortmaxima, we definitely cannot rule out a quick change back to more amplified on future guidance, but just looking at the pattern, it seems like the one behind it is probably more favorable for a larger QPF dump as the PV retrogrades west a bit.
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That thing is getting more and more sheared out every run....I am starting to agree with Tip that we punt that one in favor of 2/12-2/13. We might still get something light out of 2/9, but I am doubting a major QPF producer from that one.
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Prob pretty good up into TAN too.
