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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Jerry's turn for the jackpot? Just wait one run if you don't like it.
  2. ORH_wxman
    RGEM is actually going to capture it in a good spot for eastern spots...a little different than the NAM.
  3. ORH_wxman
    RGEM not as amped as 12z so far...which isn't terribly surprising since it was one of the most amped models at 12z
  4. ORH_wxman
    Cold layer below the warm tongue is pretty deep for the first several hours, so I wouldn't be surprised at a pretty good sleet-fest for a time. Esp in the zone between the pike and N CT/N RI.
  5. ORH_wxman
    You're in a decent spot.
  6. ORH_wxman
    You'd get like a foot-plus? What's wrong with that
  7. ORH_wxman
    A lot of parallels with the first Feb '83 storm (the one before the HECS)....Feb 6-7, 1983. That was a huge crush job from roughly 495 belt westward and northwest. Though it did bring some decent snows to 128 (albeit some taint)
  8. ORH_wxman
    Actually looks a lot like the Feb 5, 2001 snowfall distribution
  9. ORH_wxman
    You could see it early on that it would likely be good. That shortwave gets squeezed and slows everything down and allows the sfc to feed off the upper air better. It also squashes the vortmax south of SNE which is a more potent look for coastals.
  10. ORH_wxman
    18z NAM is coming in slower through 48....which is probably a good thing for a better system on 1/3-1/4
  11. ORH_wxman
  12. ORH_wxman
    That was the best H5 track we've seen on the Euro....that would prob be better for SNE (esp EASTERN AREAS!!!) than shown. I agree the crazy capture and stall is likely happening to our northeast though. I don't expect 20-30" for anyone until maybe you get up into DE ME.
  13. ORH_wxman
    It was a late phase but the whole thing was much further southeast....and t ended up creating like a 700-800 mile firehose in the mid levels coming out of the east. Had 23 inches in that one in ORH. This one if it does phase and stall would happen much further north...it wouldn’t be an easterly firehose setup. It would be a rotting CCB/deformation.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Eh maybe not. 84h 06z was pretty good. I thought it looked better than 06z leading up to that timeframe though.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Almost captured this run. Better than 06z at least.
  16. ORH_wxman
    This isn’t fast flow anyway.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Could be a nice little sleet bomb for 3 hours here. Hopefully it starts as a couple hours of snow to at least whiten everything up good.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Yes. I don’t disagree with that. Even on scenarios where the ULL is redeveloping almost overhead, interior SNE will get accumulating snow. Perhaps even a decent amount. But it won’t be the favored spot for the heaviest and longest duration snows. That would be favored further northeast in that scenario. So I think that’s the difference between and advisory type event or something much bigger.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Need to see that from more guidance. A lot of guidance has the ULL trying to go almost overhead which is more of an NNE look.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Ukie is a pretty big hit too for SNE and especially Maine. This whole capture and stall scenario is really a theme tonight though I’m not really buying it outside of Maine until we get closer. Those capture/stall for 24 hour scenarios tend to drift more progressive as we get closer historically on model guidance.
  21. ORH_wxman
    And the entire time the ensembles were northwest of those suppressed euro runs...not to mention the Synoptics (vortmax and ULL) argued for a track NW of those OP runs.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Never totally sure in meteorology....especially at this time range...but I haven’t seen a thing so far at 00z to make me think otherwise. I’m not worried about a whiff.
  23. ORH_wxman
    He will probably say lop off the first 20 inches because the ground is warm.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Yep, my bigger worry in central MA is ptype versus a SE track until there’s some major evidence for otherwise.
  25. ORH_wxman
    ULL and vortmax track for those worrying about a SE track......
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