ORH_wxman

There’s a solid chance imho that NNE gets in on good snows in this even if they aren’t the jackpot. This has the look of models not pushing the forcing far enough north.

2009. Ginxy posted above. Ask tamarack about that one. For N ORH county it was a sloppy 4-6” iirc. Doesn’t mean we’re getting the same result but that run today reminded me of that storm and it’s evolution.

And juice up on the moisture. I don’t hate where everything sits at 48-60 hours out.

2/22 on the Euro looks a lot like the same date 12 years ago.

High was 39F and temp has fallen back to 37F. Didn't end up losing all that much. About 2 inches and some of that was compaction.

They were discussing 2/22 earlier...I moved all those posts to the February pattern thread

The trough axis spends a LONG time to our west....there are several ways this system could get invigorated between early Friday and early Saturday. While I wouldn't be going gung-go at all right now, I don't think this is one of those "we can forecast high end advisory to low end warning and pack it up for the rest of the week" type deals. There's still some good upside that may or may not materialize.

If things worked out I could see some 10-14 type amounts....but that would likely require more of a capture at the end. Those amounts are unlikely, but still possible in this setup.

I was a little surprised how dry it was...it didn't look that bad aloft. It wasn't 2/1/21 either, but there's still some upside to this one, even if somewhat limited.

Yeah I don't hate where it is right now. It's pretty close to a much better system.

I don't hate this look though....that could end up pretty good if it can invigorate the system before it escapes too far east

Pretty weak sauce from Euro...it's cold but not all that prolific. It tries to get going late, but not quite enough. I do like how that vorticity is a little more concentrated at 84h....that's what could help pop this thing before it pulls off to the east.

Your area up to Sunday River has done ok. Tamarack further to the northeast has been pretty brutal relative to average.

Yeah most of my long duration events like Feb 7-9, 2015 or March 4-6, 2001 or Dec 1-3, 2019 or Feb 8-11, 1994 or Jan 2-4, 1996 are paltry totals.

Up to 37 here...prob will spike low/mid 40s at FROPA.

BOS with a NW wind...must be the mesolow trying to protrude northeast offshore of E MA.

Actually a lot of similarities with the current model guidance. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1996/us0103.php

I was pretty heavily invested in the first Jan '96 storm....the blizzard up here only came to be a big threat in the final 36 hours. Before that they kept saying it might make it to NYC and then whiff up here. So I remember the Jan 2-4, 1996 event really well. It started on 1/2/96 afternoon ad we got like 7-8" from that firstpulse....then we actually had a break/lull for a good chunk of the afternoon/evening of Jan 3rd where we maybe got another 1-2 inches over 8 hours before it ramped up again late that night into predawn Jan 4th....it ripped another 4-5 inches.

Almost comes in 2 pulses...the initial dying WAA band and then it tries to get more of a CCB going. Jan 2-4, 1996 was like this.

Maybe with FROPA....but Kevin was worried about 50+ rain/dews wiping out his pack.

And? One of the unlucky few...it will likely drop there pretty quickly. Xmas 2020 is still an awful analog.

We tried to tell you....

That was never even a consideration. It was just incoherent ramblings from unhinged-in-Tolland.

Feb 2003, Jan 1978, and Feb 1958 on that list were Miller As.

Can see it well on the mesomap...I'm stuck right in it at 33F.